Resilience and risk management in urban water supply: assessing the potential contribution of alternative systems

城市供水的弹性和风险管理：评估替代系统的潜在贡献

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06640
• 负责人: Bichai, Françoise
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: École Polytechnique de Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754649
• 关键词: Resilience; risk; management; urban; water

BackgroundThe global urban water sector faces colossal challenges in meeting growing demands from depleted resources. While climate change and urbanization gradually exacerbate these challenges, the frequency of disruptive events such as natural and man-made disasters also rises. Investment is urgently required in Canadian cities to upgrade aging water infrastructure, while recent events in Southern Quebec highlighted the vulnerability of inflexible water systems to shocks. Diversifying sources and infrastructure is put forth as a strategy to increase resilience of urban water systems (UWSs), namely through decentralized alternative water systems (AWSs) based on wastewater or rain/stormwater. With a legacy of centralized infrastructure, integration of AWSs results in the co-existence of centralized and decentralized systems. Such hybrid systems create increased interconnections, which are poorly understood: models are needed to examine the impact of AWSs on centralized systems and on UWSs' resilience. Objective and approachThis program will generate cutting-edge science and analytical approaches incorporating state-of-the-art quantitative risk assessment methods and modeling in support of improved risk management and resilience in urban water supply under natural and anthropogenic pressures and shocks. Through HQP training (3 PhDs and 4 MScAs), models will be developed to simulate hybrid systems and compare the resilience of the UWS from source to tap under different risk scenarios. The Greater Montreal Area (GMA) is used as a study region harboring several municipalities concerned with water supply resiliency; yet this study explores the theoretical implications of the models and findings at a global scale. Two dimensions of the water supply risk are considered: (i) water quantity, the risk of a water shortage (WS) and (ii) water quality, the public health risk (PH) from exposure to inadequate water quality. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment will be used to evaluate the probability of infection derived from reference pathogens/indicators in drinking or alternative water. Monte Carlo simulations will be used to calculate WS and PH risks under different pressure scenarios on centralized vs. hybrid UWSs. ImpactThis program is unifying in terms of working across disciplines at the city scale through expert collaborations. It provides (i) a much needed hybrid model, critical to understanding the impact of AWSs on water supply resilience under different risk scenarios, (ii) tools and guidance on proactive adaptation, short/medium and long-term shock responses and communication support to decision makers. Models and results are tailored to the needs of the GMA but can be adapted to other cities and contribute to the broader fields of climate and disaster resilience with foreseen applications in other sectors involving critical infrastructure.

背景全球城市水部门面临着巨大的挑战，可以满足枯竭的资源的不断增长的需求。尽管气候变化和城市化逐渐加剧了这些挑战，但自然和人为灾难等破坏性事件的频率也会上升。在加拿大城市迫切需要投资来升级老化的水基础设施，而最近在魁北克南部的事件强调了不灵活的供水系统对冲击的脆弱性。多元化的来源和基础设施是提高城市供水系统（UWSS）弹性的一种策略，即通过基于废水或雨水/雨水的分散式替代供水系统（AWSS）。凭借集中式基础设施的遗产，AWSS的整合导致集中和分散系统的共存。这种混合系统创造了增加的互连，这些互连尚未理解：需要模型来检查AWS对集中式系统和UWSS的弹性的影响。客观和方法这一计划将产生尖端的科学和分析方法，其中包含最先进的定量风险评估方法和建模，以支持自然和人为压力和冲击的改善风险管理和城市供水中的弹性。通过HQP培训（3个博士学位和4个MSCA），将开发模型来模拟混合系统，并比较在不同风险场景下从源到点击的UWS的弹性。大蒙特利尔地区（GMA）被用作一个研究区，该研究区有几个与供水弹性有关的城市。然而，这项研究探讨了在全球范围内模型和发现的理论含义。考虑到供水风险的两个维度：（i）水量，缺水的风险（WS）和（ii）水质，公共卫生风险（pH），从暴露到水质不足。定量微生物风险评估将用于评估饮酒或替代水中参考病原体/指标的感染概率。蒙特卡洛模拟将用于在集中式和混合UWSS上的不同压力方案下计算WS和pH风险。 Impact这This计划通过专家合作在城市规模的跨学科工作方面统一。它提供了（i）急需的混合模型，这对于在不同的风险场景下，（ii）主动适应，短期/中和长期冲击反应以及对决策者的沟通支持以及对决策者的沟通支持以及对供水的影响至关重要。模型和结果是根据GMA的需求量身定制的，但可以适应其他城市，并通过在涉及关键基础设施的其他部门中的可预见应用来促进更广泛的气候和灾难弹性领域。