SBIR Phase I: A Physics Guided Statistical Model for Weather Extremes Under Climate Change

小型企业创新研究(SBIR)第一阶段项目的更广泛的影响/商业潜力延伸到持有受气候变化影响的智力或金融利益的学者和行业利益相关者。鉴于近年来越来越多的证据表明气候变化导致极端天气事件增加，利益攸关方将气候变化纳入其复原力计划变得越来越重要。工程公司必须将由于城市化、沿海居民居住和气候变化影响而导致的风险变化嵌入到工程设计过程中。保险公司需要将风险评估、承保策略和再保险购买决策建立在量化方法的基础上，这些方法适当地考虑可信的、具有适当不确定性界限的极端变化的概率预测。公共机构、市政当局和私营组织必须实施关键基础设施的复原力战略，以承受十年到几十年的极端气候。该项目的重点是开发并将受专利保护的研究转化为分析和产品，以满足这些行业利益相关者的新需求。通过这项提议开发的出版物和软件将大大促进危险风险评估和气候变化适应方面的最佳实践，新英格兰设计风暴曲线的样本将免费提供，以支持教育和推广工作。这一小型企业创新研究(SBIR)第一阶段项目旨在解决气候预测中深层次的不确定性，这些不确定性源于内在变异性和物理学理解上的长期差距。该项目将包括开发一个物理指导的统计建模(PGSM)框架，用于以概率方式量化区域极端降水的预测变化，并将这些预测转化为可操作的、了解气候变化的当地设计风暴曲线。最初的重点是极端降水，因为理论和证据表明，在许多地区，气候变化导致风暴严重程度增加，这些预测是改善设计曲线所必需的，并考虑到它们是洪水模型的关键输入，将在后续工作中积极研究。该项目将产生多种成果，包括(1)同行评审的科学出版物，(2)专有的时空降水极值数据库，以及(3)为新英格兰试验台设计风暴曲线，最后一个将通过软件原型传播。

The broader impact/commercial potential of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project extends to academics and industry stakeholders holding intellectual or financial interests that are impacted by climate change. Given growing evidence for climate change-driven increases in extreme weather events over recent years, it has become increasingly important for stakeholders to factor climate change into their resilience plans. Engineering firms must embed changes in risks into engineering design processes due to increased urbanization, coastal inhabitancy, and climate change impacts. Insurance companies need to base risk assessments, underwriting strategies, and reinsurance purchasing decisions on quantitative methods that appropriately consider credible, probabilistic projections of changes in extremes with appropriate uncertainty bounds. Public agencies, municipalities, and private organizations must implement resilience strategies for critical infrastructure that will withstand climate extremes at decadal to multidecadal scales. This project focuses on developing and translating patent-protected research to analytics and products that address the emerging needs of these industry stakeholders. The publications and software developed via this proposal will significantly advance best practices in hazard risk assessment and climate change adaptation, and a sample of the New England design storm curves will be made freely available to support educational and outreach efforts.This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project aims to address the deep uncertainties in climate projections rooting from intrinsic variability and longstanding gaps in physics understanding. The project will consist of developing a Physics-Guided Statistical Modeling (PGSM) framework for probabilistically quantifying projected changes in regional precipitation extremes, and translating those projections to actionable, climate change-informed local design storm curves. The initial focus is on precipitation extremes given that theory and evidence suggest climate change-driven increases in storm severity in many regions, that these projections are needed to enhance design curves, and given they are crucial inputs to flood models that will be pursued aggressively in subsequent efforts. The project will culminate in multiple deliverables, including (1) peer reviewed scientific publications, (2) a proprietary spatio-temporal precipitation extremes database, and (3) design storm curves for a New England testbed, the last of which will be disseminated via a software prototype.