Collaborative Research: Using a Hierarchy of Models to Constrain the Temperature Dependence of Climate Sensitivity

气候敏感性通常被定义为全球气温的升高，这是由大气中二氧化碳（CO2）从工业化前水平开始增加一倍所导致的。气候敏感性是确定人为温室气体排放造成的风险的最重要因素，不能排除高敏感性值带来严重后果的可能性。一般认为，在与全球变暖相关的气候状态范围内，气候敏感性是恒定的，但如果气候敏感性很高，或者温室气体浓度上升到相当于二氧化碳翻了几倍的水平（可能在几个世纪内），这种假设可能就不成立了。pi和其他人最近的工作表明，气候敏感性可能随着全球温度的升高而增加，而这种增加可能会影响大幅变暖的风险。这里进行的工作使用了一个简化的气候模型，即社区大气模型第5版（CAM5），它与一个板状混合层海洋相耦合，以检查1次、2次和3次二氧化碳加倍对气候敏感性的温度依赖性。该模型用于生成扰动物理系综（PPE），其中控制云和对流行为的参数（例如对流的分数质量携带率）被扰动，作为改变气候反馈强度的一种手段。进一步的工作是在理想化的领域中使用云解析模型（大气建模系统，SAM）来确定参数值的合理选择。这项工作还考虑了参数值本身可能随着气候变暖而变化的可能性，从而在灵敏度上产生温度依赖性。另外的工作着眼于来自耦合模式比对项目第5版（CMIP5）的温室变暖模拟的气候敏感性，以确定模拟是否表现出温度依赖的气候敏感性。由于高气候敏感性带来的重大社会后果以及限制人为排放导致的变暖程度的愿望，这项工作具有更广泛的影响。温度依赖的敏感性也可能有助于解释过去温暖气候和气候变化的代理记录，因此这项工作具有科学和社会更广泛的影响。此外，该项目还支持一名研究生和一名博士后研究助理，从而确保了该研究领域的劳动力发展。

Climate sensitivity is typically defined as the increase in global temperature that would result from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) starting from the pre-industrial level. Climate sensitivity is the most important factor in determining the risk posed by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and high values of sensitivity with severe consequences cannot be ruled out.Climate sensitivity is generally assumed to be constant over the range of climate states relevant to global warming, but this assumption may not hold if climate sensitivity is high or if greenhouse gas concentrations rise to a level equivalent to several CO2 doublings (possibly over several centuries). Recent work by the PIs and others suggests that climate sensitivity could increase with global temperature, and this increase could influence the risk of large warming. Work performed here uses a simplified climate model, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean, to examine the temperature dependence of climate sensitivity over one, two, and three CO2 doublings. The model is used to generate a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), in which parameters controlling the behavior of cloud and convection (for example the fractional mass entrainment rate for convection) are perturbed as a means of varying the strength of climate feedbacks. Further work uses a cloud resolving model (the System for Atmospheric Modeling, or SAM) on an idealized domain to identify reasonable choices of parameter values. The work also considers the possibility that the parameter values themselves could change as climate warms, thereby yielding a temperature dependence in sensitivity. Additional work looks at climate sensitivity in greenhouse warming simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5), to determine if the simulations exhibit temperature dependent climate sensitivity.The work has broader impacts due to the substantial societal consequences by high climate sensitivity and the desirability of constraints on how much warming can result from anthropogenic emissions. Temperature-dependent sensitivity may also help to interpret proxy records of past warm climates and climate change, thus the work has scientific as well as societal broader impacts. In addition, the project supports a graduate student and a postdoctoral research associate, so that workforce development is ensured in this research area.