AGS-PRF: Improving Space Weather and Space Climate Predictions by Investigating and Modeling Surface Flux Transport on the Sun

这项为期两年的研究生奖学金研究项目的目标是提高空间气候和空间天气模型的预测能力。太阳风暴是空间天气的一个组成部分，有可能对太空中的卫星、电网和人类造成重大破坏。从太阳表面预测这些喷发还处于初级阶段，这个项目极大地改进了预测模型的基础。其目标是提高对太阳表面的流动、这些流动与磁场的相互作用以及这些流动如何与磁场结合以影响太阳的11年周期及其发电机的理解。一项非常重要的任务是制作迄今为止最准确的表面(光球层)磁场的全太阳地图。这是非常及时的，因为该模式及其产生的产品将立即对国家海洋和大气管理局空间天气预报中心等预报员有用。这个项目的主要研究人员是一位来自少数族裔的早期职业科学家，他们将与本科生(REU)合作开展这项工作。该项目基于平流通量输送(AFT)模型，该模型由PI及其在国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的合作者开发。这是一个地表磁通量输送模型，它利用近地表流动的观测数据平流太阳上的磁通量。它还可以吸收磁图数据，以提高真实感。该项目的一些既定目标是促进AFT成为跨学科的桥梁，并提高该模式的空间天气和气候预报能力。这将部分通过提供同步地图作为磁源数据，与发电机模型对接以连接内部动力学，调查活动区域源特性，纳入复杂的远端活动区域出现，并研究更复杂的数据同化技术。实现这些目标将有助于提供重现一系列周期幅度和变化所需的知识，可能包括从蒙德型极小值恢复，并增进我们对地表动力学在调节太阳活动周期中的作用的理解，这将扩大通量传输模型的预测能力。

The goal of this two-year postgraduate fellowship research project is to improve the forecasting capabilities of space climate and space weather models. Solar storms, which are one component of space weather, have the potential to do significant damage to satellites, power grids, and humans in space. Prediction of these eruptions from the solar surface is in its infancy and this project vastly improve the basis of the predictive models. The goals are to improve understanding of the flows on the Sun's surface, the interaction of these flows with the magnetic field, and how the flows combine with the magnetic field to impact the Sun's eleven year cycle and its dynamo. One very important task project is to produce the most accurate full-Sun maps of the magnetic field on the surface (the photosphere) to date. This is very timely as this model and its resulting products will be immediately useful to forecasters such as those at NOAA/SWPC (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations Space Weather Prediction Center). The Principle Investigator of this project is an early career scientist from an underrepresented minority who will work with undergraduate (REU) students to carry out the work.This project is based on the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, developed by the PI and her collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This is a surface flux transport model that advects the magnetic flux on the sun using observational data for of near-surface flows. It can also assimilate magnetogram data for increased realism. Some of the stated goals of this project are to promote AFT as a cross discipline bridge, and to improve the space weather and climate forecasting capabilities of the model. This will be done, in part, by providing synchronic maps as magnetic source data, interfacing with dynamo models to connect with internal dynamics, investigating active region source properties, incorporating complex far-side active region emergence and investigate ever more sophisticated data assimilation techniques. Accomplishing these goals will help provide the knowledge needed to reproduce a range of cycle amplitudes and variations, potentially including the recovery from a Maunder-type Grand minimum and improve our understanding of the role of surface dynamics in modulating the solar activity cycle which will extend the predictive capability of flux transport models.