AGS-PRF: Inferring Predictability and Dynamics of Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability from Marine and Terrestrial Paleoclimate Records

AGS-PRF：从海洋和陆地古气候记录推断大西洋多年代气候变化的可预测性和动态

• 批准号: 1624777
• 负责人: Daniel Amrhein
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Amrhein Daniel E
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-05-01 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1624777&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Inferring; Predictability; Dynamics

Under the aegis of the AGS-PRF (post-doctoral research fellowship) solicitation, the researcher aims to leverage recent compilations of proxy records to characterize North Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The research explores the potential of publicly available paleoclimate records in combination with a proven modeling technique to address fundamental hypotheses about the time scales, stationarity, anthropogenic influence, and coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The project is guided by three specific science questions and one far-reaching and overarching question. Specifically, the research seeks to address: Question 1) What is the predictability of AMV as evidenced by proxy records? Do proxy records suggest mechanisms of coupled atmosphere-ocean AMV?Strategy: To diagnose AMV predictability from proxy records, linear inverse models (LIMs) will be derived from marine and terrestrial proxy records. Eigenvalue analyses will be used to show dominant dynamical patterns and time scales, and marine and terrestrial records will be used to identify coupled climate variability. Forecast skill of models derived from proxies, modern observations, and output from the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project will be compared.Question 2) Is AMV changing through time, and can we attribute changes to anthropogenic forcing? Strategy: Non-stationarities in AMV, including possible responses to anthropogenic influences, will be explored using statistical tests, wavelet analyses, and eigenvector analyses of LIMs constructed over temporal subsets of the data.Question 3) How do AMV dynamics in general circulation models and proxy-derived models differ? Strategy: Dynamics responsible for AMV in proxy-derived LIMs will be compared to mechanisms for AMV in controls runs from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) archives.The research is guided by the far-reaching and overarching question: Question: Do paleoclimate proxy data have power to constrain AMV dynamics and predictability? Strategy: If "yes," then proxy records can be directly useful in making and evaluating modern climate forecasts, and the techniques can be expanded to other regions and time scales. If "no," then the research will help quantify the limits of proxy records to assess predictability of modern climate, and identify new record types and sites to improve dynamical understanding and predictive power.The broader impacts involve supporting an early career scientist, helping reduce the uncertainty in North Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and providing materials to local STEM high school teachers and students through projects already in existence at the university.

在AGS-PRF（博士后研究奖学金）征集的支持下，研究人员的目标是利用代理记录的最新汇编来表征北大西洋海表温度（SST）的数十年变化（AMV）。该研究探讨了公开的古气候记录的潜力，结合成熟的建模技术，以解决有关大西洋年代际变化（AMV）的时间尺度，平稳性，人为影响和耦合大气-海洋动力学的基本假设。 该项目由三个具体的科学问题和一个影响深远的总体问题指导。 具体而言，该研究旨在解决：问题1）代理记录证明AMV的可预测性是什么？代理记录表明耦合大气-海洋AMV的机制？战略：为了从代理记录中诊断AMV的可预测性，将从海洋和陆地代理记录中导出线性逆模型（LIM）。本征值分析将用于显示主要的动力模式和时间尺度，海洋和陆地记录将用于确定耦合的气候变率。我们将比较从代用资料、现代观测资料和上个千年再分析项目的输出中得到的模式的预报技巧。问题2）AMV是否随时间而变化，我们能否将变化归因于人为强迫？策略：AMV的非平稳性，包括可能的人为影响的反应，将探讨使用统计检验，小波分析，和特征向量分析的LIM构建在时间子集的data.Question 3）如何AMV动态在大气环流模型和代理衍生模型不同？策略：动态代理派生LIMS负责AMV将比较机制AMV控制运行CMIP 5（耦合模型相互比较项目，第5阶段）archives.The研究是由深远的和首要的问题：问题：古气候代理数据有权力约束AMV的动态和可预测性？策略：如果答案为“是”，则代用记录可直接用于制作和评估现代气候预报，而且这些技术可扩展到其他区域和时间尺度。如果答案为“否”，那么这项研究将有助于量化代用记录的局限性，以评估现代气候的可预测性，并确定新的记录类型和地点，以提高动态理解和预测能力。更广泛的影响包括支持早期职业科学家，帮助减少北大西洋海表温度（SST）的多年变化（AMV）的不确定性，并通过大学现有的项目向当地STEM高中教师和学生提供材料。