Three Projects in Econometric Theory

计量经济学理论的三个项目

• 批准号: 1627660
• 负责人: Ulrich Mueller
• 金额: $ 19.93万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-08-01 至 2019-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1627660&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Three; Projects; Econometric; Theory

Most empirical methods in economics and the social sciences derive their validity from the thought experiment on how they would perform in very large samples. The implicit hope is that ensuring good performance in large samples leads to acceptable performance in moderately small data sets as well. For some inference problems, however, it is known that the standard large sample approximation is too inaccurate to be a reliable guide for the sample sized typically encountered in empirical work. As a constructive remedy, it is sometimes possible to embed the original problem in an alternative large sample approximation that better captures the small sample features. This project aims at developing such alternative large sample approximations in three empirically relevant econometric problems: How to conduct inference with persistent time series; how to account for the presence of a large number of control variates in a linear regression; and how to conduct inference about the probability and properties of extreme events. Recent advances in econometric theory often consider sequences of parameter or tuning parameter values that lead to a different form of large sample approximations. Prominent examples include weak instrument asymptotics, local-to-unity time series asymptotics where the largest autoregressive root takes on values ever closer to one, and heteroskedasticity and autocorrelations robust inference with a bandwidth equal to a fixed fraction of the sample size. This research develops similar alternative asymptotics in three distinct inference problems: The first project generalizes the local-to-unity model by letting p autoregressive roots, as well as p-1 MA roots, converge to unity at the appropriate rate. The second project studies inference about a linear regression coefficient in the presence of a large number of potential controls, where the control coefficients are known to satisfy a particular L_2 bound that can be interpreted as a bound on the R^2 in a regression of the outcome on the controls. The third project concerns the problem of inference about tail properties based on an i.i.d. sample, under the sole assumption that extreme value theory to hold for the largest k observations, for a given and fixed k.

经济学和社会科学中的大多数经验方法都是从思想实验中获得有效性的，这些思想实验是关于它们在非常大的样本中如何表现的。隐含的希望是，确保在大样本中的良好性能也会导致在适度小的数据集中的可接受性能。然而，对于一些推理问题，人们知道，标准的大样本近似是太不准确，是一个可靠的指导样本大小通常遇到的经验工作。作为一种建设性的补救措施，有时可以将原始问题嵌入到另一种更好地捕获小样本特征的大样本近似中。该项目旨在开发三个经验相关的计量经济学问题的替代大样本近似：如何进行持续时间序列的推断;如何在线性回归中考虑大量控制变量的存在;以及如何进行关于极端事件的概率和属性的推断。计量经济学理论的最新进展经常考虑导致不同形式的大样本近似的参数序列或调整参数值。突出的例子包括弱仪器渐进性、局部到单位时间序列渐进性（其中最大的自回归根的值越来越接近1）以及异方差和自相关鲁棒推断（带宽等于样本量的固定分数）。本研究在三个不同的推理问题中开发了类似的替代渐近性：第一个项目通过让p个自回归根以及p-1个MA根以适当的速率收敛到单位来推广局部到单位模型。第二个项目研究在存在大量潜在控制的情况下关于线性回归系数的推断，其中已知控制系数满足特定的L_2界限，该界限可以被解释为在控制结果的回归中R^2的界限。第三个项目涉及基于独立同分布的尾部属性推断问题样本，在唯一的假设下，极值理论对最大k个观测值成立，对于给定的固定k。