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Understanding Confidence: Eyewitness Testimony as a Model Case

理解信心：目击者证词作为典范

基本信息

批准号：
1632174
负责人：
Chad Dodson
金额：
$ 24.08万
依托单位：
University of Virginia Main Campus
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-09-01 至 2019-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1632174&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Understanding Confidence Eyewitness Testimony Model

项目摘要

Everyday situations require individuals to understand another person's level of confidence in his/her memory. For example, when a spouse says, "I'm pretty sure I locked the door" do you interpret that statement as indicating that you should double check the lock or not. Interpretation of such expressions of confidence present important cognitive challenges and can be influenced by a number of different factors. The cognitive biases that can influence these interpretations of confidence and the approaches to expressing confidence that might limit the impact of these biases are important areas of research with wide-ranging applications. The current project examines these factors in the context of eyewitness identification. When an eyewitness identifies someone from a lineup and states, "I'm pretty sure it's him," how do we know that police, jurors and others will interpret this expression of confidence in the way that it was intended? While a large literature exists on eyewitness confidence and (a) its relationship with identification accuracy, (b) its influence on jurors, and (c) its vulnerability to influence from post-identification feedback, very little is known about how other people understand the verbal expressions of eyewitness confidence. The outcomes of this project in terms of a more thorough understanding of the cognitive factors that influence interpretations of confidence are anticipated to have broad implications for settings, such as judicial proceedings, that involve the interpretation of another person's confidence.This project investigates how people understand an eyewitness's verbal expression of confidence in the accuracy of his/her identification from a lineup of faces. There are three goals: first, the project examines how the particular content of an eyewitness's justification for his/her level of confidence (e.g., "I'm pretty certain it's him because I remember his chin") influences how people understand the eyewitness's confidence-statement. Second, there are a variety of cognitive biases that cause individuals to misinterpret the verbal expressions of certainty. For example, mounting research on the 'outcome-severity bias' shows that the identical verbal probability phrase (e.g., "it is somewhat likely") is interpreted as denoting a higher numerical likelihood when that phrase refers to more severe events rather than less severe events. The project considers whether eyewitness expressions of confidence are vulnerable to misunderstandings that are caused by the same kinds of cognitive biases. Third, the proposed experiments investigate whether the harmful influence of these cognitive biases can be mitigated by expressing confidence numerically instead of verbally. Overall, the project will fill a profound lack of knowledge about how people understand eyewitness confidence in a lineup identification. Moreover, the knowledge that verbal expressions of certainty are vulnerable to misinterpretations may: (a) guide police to obtain a numerical estimate of certainty from eyewitnesses; and (b) alert police, lawyers, judges and jurors to potential pitfalls about interpreting verbal expressions of certainty.

日常生活中，人们需要了解他人对其记忆力的信心程度。例如，当配偶说“我很确定我锁了门”时，您是否将该声明解释为表明您应该仔细检查锁是否正确。对这种自信表达的解释提出了重要的认知挑战，并且可能受到许多不同因素的影响。可能影响对信心的解释的认知偏差以及可能限制这些偏差影响的表达信心的方法是具有广泛应用的重要研究领域。当前的项目在目击者识别的背景下研究这些因素。当目击者认出队列中的某个人并说“我很确定就是他”时，我们怎么知道警察、陪审员和其他人会按照预期的方式解释这种自信的表达？虽然有大量文献探讨目击者信心及其（a）其与识别准确性的关系，（b）其对陪审员的影响，以及（c）其易受识别后反馈影响的脆弱性，但对于其他人如何理解目击者信心的口头表达却知之甚少。该项目的成果是更彻底地了解影响信心解释的认知因素，预计将对涉及他人信心解释的司法程序等环境产生广泛的影响。该项目调查人们如何理解目击者口头表达的信心，以及从一系列面孔中识别出他/她的准确性。有三个目标：首先，该项目检查目击者对其信心水平的辩护的特定内容（例如，“我很确定是他，因为我记得他的下巴”）如何影响人们如何理解目击者的信心陈述。其次，存在多种认知偏差，导致个人误解口头表达的确定性。例如，越来越多的关于“结果严重性偏差”的研究表明，当相同的口头概率短语（例如“有点可能”）指的是更严重的事件而不是不太严重的事件时，该短语被解释为表示更高的数字可能性。该项目考虑了目击者的信心表达是否容易受到由同类认知偏见引起的误解。第三，拟议的实验调查是否可以通过用数字而不是口头表达信心来减轻这些认知偏差的有害影响。总体而言，该项目将填补人们对于如何理解目击者对阵容识别的信心的严重缺乏。此外，认识到口头表达的确定性很容易受到误解，这可能会： (a) 指导警方从目击者那里获得对确定性的数字估计； (b) 提醒警察、律师、法官和陪审员注意解释口头确定性表达时可能出现的陷阱。