RAPID: Plant/pollinator networks in a rare, wet El Nino year

记录气候变化对物种间生态相互作用影响的长期记录很少，但这类信息对于准确预测气候变化的生态后果至关重要。由于缺乏长期数据，另一种方法是研究物种相互作用对快速气候变化的短期变化，并将这些信息与对长期气候趋势的详细了解结合起来。该项目扩展了对加利福尼亚中部沿海地区植物开花模式的传粉媒介丰度和物种多样性（主要是大黄蜂）的详细研究。该地区经历了日益严重的干旱，几十年来平均气温一直在上升。当前温暖潮湿的厄尔尼诺现象为评估这一传粉媒介和植物物种系统的反应和恢复力提供了一个独特的机会。传粉物种的多样性和丰富的组合对该地区本地植物物种的维持至关重要。这项研究将为自然保护区的管理提供信息，也将提供对美国农业至关重要的传粉媒介如何应对气候变化的重要信息。该项目将通过研究生培训和举办讲习班使有关生境的土地管理人员参与进来，帮助扩大对科学的参与。这项工作提出了三个具体的、可测试的假设：(1)在潮湿的厄尔尼诺年，植物开花和传粉活动将暂时中断；(2)在厄尔尼诺现象期间，大黄蜂会立即对大量开花带来的资源繁荣做出反应，而独居蜜蜂的反应将推迟一年；(3)在湿润的厄尔尼诺年份，传粉者网络将比干旱年份更加专业化，因为当花朵丰富时，蜜蜂将选择更喜欢的植物物种。在气候变率变化的背景下，潜在的时间错配是一个重要的生态问题。

Long-term records documenting the effects of climate variability on ecological interactions among species are rare, but this type of information is critical to making accurate predictions of ecological consequences of climate change. Lacking long term data, an alternative approach is to examine shorter-term change in species interactions in response to rapid climate shifts, and combine that information with a detailed understanding of long-term climatic trends. This project extends a detailed study of pollinator abundance and species diversity (primarily bumblebees) with plant flowering patterns in coastal, central California. This region had been experiencing an increasingly severe drought, and average temperatures that have been increasing for decades. The current warm, wet El Nino event presents a unique opportunity to assess the responses and resilience of this system of pollinators and plant species. A diverse and abundant assemblage of pollinator species is critical to the maintenance of native plant species in this region. This study will inform the management of nature reserves and will also provide important information on how pollinators, which are essential to US agriculture, respond to climate change. The project will help broaden participation in science through graduate student training, and through a workshop to engage land managers of relevant habitats.The work addresses three specific, testable hypotheses: (1) plant flowering and pollinator activity will be temporally disconnected in the wet El Nino year; (2) bumblebees respond immediately to the resource boom provided by heavy, extended flowering in the El Nino, but solitary bee responses will be delayed a year; and (3) pollinator networks will be more specialized in the wet El Nino year than during the drought, because bees will select more preferred plant species when flowers are abundant. The potential temporal mismatch is an important ecological problem in the context of changing climatic variability.