Doctoral Dissertation Research: Simulating Compositional and Structural Change in a Near Boreal Forest

地理学空间科学（GSS）计划本博士论文的研究将调查竞争因素的影响，如气候条件，土地利用和火灾，驱动结构和成分的变化，在近北方森林的上五大湖地区。 这项研究将使人们更好地了解植被对这些影响的反应，以促进森林的长期可持续性和复原力。 增强的森林景观模拟建模将提供有关植被和环境动态的新见解，并更全面地了解干扰对生态系统的影响。 这项研究的成果将为土地资源管理人员和利益攸关方提供潜在的未来森林状况情景，使他们能够做出知情的、基于成果的环境管理决策。更好的管理工作不仅可以保护生态系统，还可以加强该地区的娱乐和经济活动。 该项目包括为来自代表性不足人口的本科生提供教育和培训机会，以丰富他们的研究经验。 作为一个博士论文研究改进奖，这个奖项将提供支持，使一个有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立的研究事业。近北方森林的上五大湖经历了深刻的组成，结构和功能的变化，在世纪以下欧美定居。 红松在该地区的历史优势是代表火灾的印记的景观，然而，20世纪世纪的土地利用改造一般排除火灾的景观，减少弹性物种的优势，并可能增加区域森林对未来环境变化的敏感性。 该奖项支持的研究将集中在三个核心问题：（1）是否有足够数量的闪电火灾，以维持红松树林在上五大湖地区？(2)如果没有20世纪世纪的景观改造，现代景观的构成和结构会有什么不同？(3)环境变化将如何影响未来的火灾状况和随后的植被格局？ 博士生将使用景观干扰和演替模型，LANDIS-II来模拟森林组成和结构的变化。 将模拟四种情景，时间范围从定居前到公元2300年，以模拟森林变化，以应对不同的火灾，气候和土地情景。

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATIONGEOGRAPHY SPATIAL SCIENCES (GSS) PROGRAMABSTRACTThis doctoral dissertation research will investigate the influences of competing factors such as climate conditions, land use, and fire that drive structural and compositional change in the near Boreal forests of the Upper Great Lakes region. The research will provide an improved understanding of the response of vegetation to these impacts in order to promote long-term forest sustainability and resilience. Enhanced forest landscape simulation modeling will provide new insights regarding vegetation and environmental dynamics, and a more holistic understanding of the impacts of disturbances on the ecosystem. Outcomes from this research will provide land resources managers and stakeholders with potential future forest conditions scenarios enabling them to make informed, outcome-based environmental management decisions. Better management efforts will not only protect the ecosystem but also enhance recreational and economic activities in the region. The project includes education and training opportunities for undergraduate students from underrepresented populations to enrich their research experiences. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.The near boreal forests of the Upper Great Lakes have undergone profound compositional, structural, and functional changes during the century following Euro-American settlement. The historical dominance of red pine in the region is representative of fire's imprint on the landscape, however, 20th century land-use modification has generally excluded fire across the landscape, reducing dominance of resilient species and potentially increasing susceptibility of the regional forests to future environmental change. The research supported by this award will focus on three core questions: (1) Are there an adequate number lightning fires to maintain red pine stands in the Upper Great Lakes region? (2) How would the modern-day landscape composition and structure differ in the absence of 20th century landscape modification? (3) How will environmental changes influence fire regimes and subsequent vegetation patterns in the future? The doctoral student will use the landscape disturbance and succession model, LANDIS-II to simulate forest compositional and structural change. Four scenarios will be simulated, ranging temporally from pre-settlement times to AD 2300, to model forest changes in response to varying fire, climate, and land scenarios.