A Simulation Platform to Enhance Infrastructure and Community Resilience to Extreme Heat Events

在全球许多城市，暴露在高温下是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题。在美国，西南部城市在过去几十年里经历了越来越多的热浪，全球气候模型预测这些极端事件的持续时间和强度都会显著增加。面对这些挑战，人们对日常活动中与城市基础设施互动时如何暴露在高温中知之甚少。要了解暴露情况，必须考虑的因素包括人们居住的房屋类型(以及他们是否安装和使用空调)、他们的移动性选择、基础设施的质量(例如，遮阳、景观和材料选择)、他们的工作情况(例如，有空调的办公室和户外工作者)以及他们的活动概况。需要一个系统的框架，任何城市都可以用来了解人们是如何暴露在高温下的，并主动降低风险。为了深入了解人们如何暴露在高温下，这项工作将开发一个城市活动热模拟(UAHS)平台，该平台将加入(1)住宅和工作场所暴露模型，(2)汽车使用、公共交通和骑自行车/步行的旅行模拟，(3)城市基础设施特征，(4)高分辨率城市气候数据，以及(5)暴露阈值模型。UAHS将使用亚利桑那州凤凰城和加利福尼亚州洛杉矶作为案例研究来开发。建筑物的热性能模型将与对家庭和工作活动的调查相结合，以评估人们在室内感受到的热量。利用国家和地区旅行调查，结合详细的旅行模型，将开发出人们如何在城市中流动的模拟。缩小尺度的气候模型将被用来估计这两个城市现在和未来的户外条件。有关基础设施的信息，包括材料、景观和遮阳，也将被用来制定户外暴露的估计。将模拟暴露与健康记录相结合，将为危险的热暴露情况提供新的见解。该平台将通过现场监测进行验证。UAHS的发展目标是使任何城市都能为其独特的人口和基础设施建立平台。

Exposure to heat is a growing public health concern in many cities across the globe. In the US, Southwest cities have experienced increasing numbers of heat waves in the past few decades, and global climate models project significant increases in both the duration and intensity of these extreme events. Facing these challenges, very little is known about how people are exposed to heat during their day-to-day activities as they interact with urban infrastructure. To understand exposure, factors including the types of homes people live in (and whether they have and use air conditioning), their mobility choices, the quality of the infrastructure (e.g., shading, landscaping, and material choice), their work situation (e.g., air conditioned office versus outdoor worker), and their activity profiles must be considered. A systematic framework that any city can use to understand how people are exposed to heat and proactively mitigate risk is needed. To create insight into how people are exposed to heat, this work will develop an Urban Activity Heat Simulation (UAHS) platform that will join (1) a model of residential and workplace exposure, (2) travel simulations for automobile use, public transit, and biking/walking, (3) urban infrastructure characteristics, (4) high-resolution urban climate data, and (5) a model of exposure thresholds. UAHS will be developed using Phoenix, Arizona and Los Angeles, California as case studies. Heat performance models for buildings will be combined with surveys of home and work activities to assess how people experience heat indoors. Using national and regional travel surveys combined with detailed travel models, simulations of how people move throughout cities will be developed. Downscaled climate models will be used to estimate present and future outdoor conditions in both cities. Information on infrastructure including materials, landscaping, and shading will also be used to develop estimates of outdoor exposure. Combining simulated exposures with health records will provide new insight into dangerous heat exposure profiles. The platform will be validated with in situ monitoring. UAHS will be developed with the goal of enabling any city to build upon the platform for their unique population and infrastructure.