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MSB-ECA: A generalized framework for modeling the impacts of forest insects and pathogens in the Earth System

MSB-ECA：模拟森林昆虫和病原体对地球系统影响的通用框架

基本信息

批准号：
1638406
负责人：
Jaclyn Matthes
金额：
$ 13.35万
依托单位：
Wellesley College
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-01-01 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1638406&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
MSB ECA generalized framework modeling

项目摘要

Abstract: MSB-ECA: A generalized framework for modeling the impacts of forest insects and pathogens in the Earth SystemForest insects and pathogens are global agents of ecosystem disturbance. In the United States, tree stress and mortality from insects and pathogens creates billions of dollars in costs for U.S. municipalities and individual property owners. The interactions between insects and pathogens and other disturbances, such as climate change, are highly uncertain, but in many cases climate change is expected to increase insect and pathogen activity. This project will develop a framework to simulate and forecast the impacts of forest insects and pathogens through a generalized method that accurately captures the large diversity of their impacts. This framework will be used to simulate the potential impacts of insect and pathogen outbreaks in forests across the continental U.S. and to investigate the specific impacts of two invasive insects ? gypsy moth and hemlock woolly adelgid ? in the eastern U.S. A key benefit of this research is that it will improve the ability to simulate future impacts of insects and pathogens on forests in combination with other disturbances like drought, heat waves, and extreme rainfall events. This research will also increase the diversity of the U.S. STEM workforce by training undergraduate women in cutting-edge quantitative methods. Future feedbacks between forest insects and pathogens, forests, and climate change are not well understood at regional to continental spatial scales, due in part to the absence of the processes controlled by insects and pathogens within Earth System models. This research proposes a generalized framework in which impacts of insects and pathogens on plant physiology are scaled up to ecosystem-level processes that can be integrated into Earth System models. With this framework, this research tests three hypotheses regarding the response of forests to insects and pathogens: 1) at low intensities, insects and pathogens increase tree diversity, increase forest carbon storage, and increase water cycling, but at high intensities insects and pathogens create large-scale mortality; 2) the ability of insects and pathogens to impact a wide range of host species will be less likely to shift forest tree species composition but more likely to impact carbon and water cycling; 3) insects and pathogens that create a continuous stress, rather than periodic irruptions, are more likely to initiate impacts that are amplified by climate change. These hypotheses will be tested with theoretical modeling experiments across the continuous U.S. and with a second set of modeling experiments focused on two invasive insects in the eastern U.S.: 1) periodic irruption of the generalist, defoliating gypsy moth, and 2) slow and continuous stress from the species-specific, phloem-feeding hemlock woolly adelgid. Rather than modeling insects and pathogens as direct agents of mortality, this framework will more accurately simulate changes in individual host tree physiology and resulting changes in ecosystem processes. To facilitate the incorporation of this framework into other Earth System models, this research will develop two open-source training modules. The proposed research will also help to develop a diverse and competitive STEM workforce by training undergraduate women in research that uses advanced computational methods and develops skills in scientific communication.

摘要：MSB-ECA：模拟森林昆虫和病原体对地球系统影响的通用框架森林昆虫和病原体是生态系统干扰的全球性因素。在美国，树木压力以及昆虫和病原体造成的死亡给美国市政当局和个人业主带来了数十亿美元的成本。昆虫和病原体之间的相互作用以及气候变化等其他干扰因素非常不确定，但在许多情况下，气候变化预计会增加昆虫和病原体的活动。该项目将开发一个框架，通过一种通用的方法，准确地捕捉森林昆虫和病原体影响的多样性，从而模拟和预测森林昆虫和病原体的影响。这个框架将用于模拟美国大陆森林中昆虫和病原体爆发的潜在影响，并调查两种入侵昆虫的具体影响。吉普赛飞蛾和铁杉绵羊？在美国东部，这项研究的一个主要好处是，它将提高模拟未来昆虫和病原体对森林的影响以及干旱、热浪和极端降雨事件等其他干扰事件的能力。这项研究还将通过对本科生女性进行尖端量化方法的培训，增加美国STEM劳动力的多样性。在区域到大陆的空间尺度上，对森林昆虫和病原体、森林和气候变化之间的未来反馈没有得到很好的理解，部分原因是地球系统模型中没有昆虫和病原体控制的过程。这项研究提出了一个普遍的框架，在这个框架中，昆虫和病原体对植物生理的影响被放大到生态系统级别的过程，可以整合到地球系统模型中。在这个框架下，这项研究测试了关于森林对昆虫和病原体的反应的三个假说：1)在低强度时，昆虫和病原体增加了树木的多样性，增加了森林的碳贮量，增加了水分循环，但在高强度时，昆虫和病原体造成了大规模的死亡；2)昆虫和病原体影响广泛寄主物种的能力将不太可能改变森林树种的组成，但更有可能影响碳和水循环；3)造成持续压力而不是周期性干扰的昆虫和病原体更有可能发起因气候变化而放大的影响。这些假设将通过持续不断的美国各地的理论模拟实验和第二组专注于美国东部两种入侵昆虫的模拟实验来验证：1)多面手、落叶的吉普赛飞蛾的周期性入侵，以及2)特定物种的、以韧皮部为食的铁杉绵毛虫的缓慢而持续的压力。这个框架将更准确地模拟个体寄主树木生理的变化以及由此导致的生态系统过程的变化，而不是将昆虫和病原体建模为直接导致死亡的因素。为了促进将这一框架纳入其他地球系统模型，这项研究将开发两个开放源码培训模块。拟议的研究还将通过培训本科生女性从事使用先进计算方法和发展科学交流技能的研究，帮助培养一支多样化和具有竞争力的STEM劳动力队伍。