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RAPID: Harnessing spatial heterogeneity to contain Zika virus transmission

RAPID：利用空间异质性遏制寨卡病毒传播

基本信息

批准号：
1640698
负责人：
Gonzalo Vazquez Prokopec
金额：
$ 19.69万
依托单位：
Emory University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-05-01 至 2017-04-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1640698&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
RAPID Harnessing spatial heterogeneity contain

项目摘要

In 2015 and 2016, the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil and the Americas prompted the World Health Organization to declare a public health emergency. Zika virus is predominantly transmitted by mosquitos, including urban dwelling species whose range extends far into North America. Understanding why certain areas within a city have high virus transmission, aka "hot spots", as well as identifying effective methods to reduce this virus transmission is a high priority for the security and well being of people of the United States. This study utilizes highly detailed surveillance data from Mexico and Brazil to understand how Zika virus hot-spots compare to that of dengue and chikungunya viruses, two similar mosquito-borne viruses. Results from this project will be relevant to the Zika public health emergency, and the researchers have set in place mechanisms to share quality-assured interim and final data as rapidly and widely as possible, including with public health and research communities.In partnership with Ministries of Health from Mexico and Brazil, this multidisciplinary research team will leverage geographically linked epidemiological and entomological datasets to construct and validate a spatially explicit agent based model. While Zika virus has not yet impacted communities in Acapulco or Merida, the two model cities in Mexico, current predictions anticipate its arrival in the summer of 2016. The constructed model will not only characterize areas of high transmission, but it will be used to compare the impacts of various spatially targeted intervention strategies on viral transmission. The project outcomes will provide specific information on the likelihood of Zika virus establishment, the epidemic size of Zika in these modeled areas, as well as how each intervention will reduce the transmission potential of Zika. The proposed work will not only benefit the three model cities in Mexico and Brazil, but it will provide generalizable information on risk factors for urban hot spots, and predictive information vector control best practices for combating Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses.

2015年和2016年，寨卡病毒在巴西和美洲爆发，促使世界卫生组织宣布进入公共卫生紧急状态。寨卡病毒主要由蚊子传播，包括城市居住物种，其范围远至北美。了解为什么一个城市的某些地区有高病毒传播，又称“热点”，以及确定有效的方法来减少这种病毒传播是美国人民的安全和福祉的高度优先事项。这项研究利用了来自墨西哥和巴西的非常详细的监测数据，以了解寨卡病毒热点与登革热和基孔肯雅病毒（两种类似的蚊媒病毒）的热点相比如何。该项目的结果将与寨卡公共卫生紧急情况相关，研究人员已经建立了机制，以尽可能迅速和广泛地共享有质量保证的中期和最终数据，包括与公共卫生和研究界。这个多学科研究小组将利用地理上联系的流行病学和昆虫学数据集来构建和验证一个空间上明确的代理基于模型。虽然寨卡病毒尚未影响墨西哥两个模范城市阿卡普尔科或梅里达的社区，但目前的预测预计它将在2016年夏天到来。所构建的模型不仅将描述高传播地区的特征，还将用于比较各种空间目标干预策略对病毒传播的影响。项目成果将提供有关寨卡病毒建立的可能性、寨卡病毒在这些模拟地区的流行规模以及每项干预措施如何降低寨卡病毒传播潜力的具体信息。拟议的工作不仅将使墨西哥和巴西的三个示范城市受益，还将提供关于城市热点风险因素的可推广信息，以及防治寨卡病毒、登革热和基孔肯雅病毒的预测性信息媒介控制最佳做法。