RAPID: Harnessing spatial heterogeneity to contain Zika virus transmission

2015年和2016年，寨卡病毒在巴西和美洲爆发，促使世界卫生组织宣布进入公共卫生紧急状态。寨卡病毒主要由蚊子传播，包括生活在城市中的蚊子，其传播范围远至北美。了解为什么一个城市的某些地区有高病毒传播，也就是“热点”，以及确定有效的方法来减少这种病毒的传播，是美国人民安全和福祉的重中之重。这项研究利用了来自墨西哥和巴西的非常详细的监测数据，以了解寨卡病毒热点与登革热和基孔肯雅病毒（两种类似的蚊子传播病毒）的比较。该项目的结果将与寨卡公共卫生紧急情况相关，研究人员已经建立了机制，以便尽可能迅速和广泛地共享有质量保证的中期和最终数据，包括与公共卫生和研究界共享数据。这一多学科研究小组将与墨西哥和巴西卫生部合作，利用地理上相关的流行病学和昆虫学数据集，构建和验证基于空间明确因子的模型。虽然寨卡病毒还没有影响到阿卡普尔科和梅里达这两个墨西哥模范城市的社区，但目前的预测预计它将在2016年夏天到来。所构建的模型不仅将表征高传播区域，还将用于比较各种空间靶向干预策略对病毒传播的影响。项目成果将提供有关寨卡病毒形成的可能性、寨卡病毒在这些模拟地区的流行规模以及每种干预措施如何减少寨卡病毒传播潜力的具体信息。拟议的工作不仅将使墨西哥和巴西的三个示范城市受益，而且将为城市热点地区的风险因素提供可推广的信息，并为防治寨卡病毒、登革热和基孔肯雅病毒提供媒介控制最佳实践的预测性信息。

In 2015 and 2016, the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil and the Americas prompted the World Health Organization to declare a public health emergency. Zika virus is predominantly transmitted by mosquitos, including urban dwelling species whose range extends far into North America. Understanding why certain areas within a city have high virus transmission, aka "hot spots", as well as identifying effective methods to reduce this virus transmission is a high priority for the security and well being of people of the United States. This study utilizes highly detailed surveillance data from Mexico and Brazil to understand how Zika virus hot-spots compare to that of dengue and chikungunya viruses, two similar mosquito-borne viruses. Results from this project will be relevant to the Zika public health emergency, and the researchers have set in place mechanisms to share quality-assured interim and final data as rapidly and widely as possible, including with public health and research communities.In partnership with Ministries of Health from Mexico and Brazil, this multidisciplinary research team will leverage geographically linked epidemiological and entomological datasets to construct and validate a spatially explicit agent based model. While Zika virus has not yet impacted communities in Acapulco or Merida, the two model cities in Mexico, current predictions anticipate its arrival in the summer of 2016. The constructed model will not only characterize areas of high transmission, but it will be used to compare the impacts of various spatially targeted intervention strategies on viral transmission. The project outcomes will provide specific information on the likelihood of Zika virus establishment, the epidemic size of Zika in these modeled areas, as well as how each intervention will reduce the transmission potential of Zika. The proposed work will not only benefit the three model cities in Mexico and Brazil, but it will provide generalizable information on risk factors for urban hot spots, and predictive information vector control best practices for combating Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses.