Explaining the National Assessment of Educational Progress 2013-2015 Mathematics Decline

本项目是根据EHR核心研究（ECR）项目公告NSF 15-509提交的。STEM教育基础研究ECR项目为重要、广泛和持久的关键研究领域提供资金。EHR寻求有助于在以下重点领域综合、建立和/或扩大研究基础的提案：STEM学习、STEM学习环境、STEM劳动力发展和扩大STEM参与。ECR项目的特点是强调积累有力的证据，为以下方面的努力提供信息：(a)理解，(b)建立理论来解释，(c)提出干预（和创新）措施，以解决STEM兴趣、教育、学习和参与方面的持续挑战。2015年，四年级和八年级的平均数学成绩在全国教育进步评估（NAEP）中下降，这是自1990年以来这些年级的数学成绩首次下降。美国数学成绩的下降对整个STEM教育、STEM劳动力和国际竞争力都有重要影响。罗格斯大学（Rutgers University）的研究人员将进行一项分析，通过调查NAEP评估的维度、州一级的结果和人口趋势，找出数学成绩下降的原因。该团队将使用多层次项目反应理论建模技术，通过检查因素结构来确定多年来的维度，来调查这种下降。研究人员将在州和国家层面检查与因素结构的每个维度相对应的子分数。此外，还将检查各个州和司法管辖区的得分趋势。潜在地，分析将允许检查与州标准采用，人口变化和参与率相关的因素。

This project was submitted in response to EHR Core Research (ECR) program announcement NSF 15-509. The ECR program of fundamental research in STEM education provides funding in critical research areas that are essential, broad and enduring. EHR seeks proposals that will help synthesize, build and/or expand research foundations in the following focal areas: STEM learning, STEM learning environments, STEM workforce development, and broadening participation in STEM. The ECR program is distinguished by its emphasis on the accumulation of robust evidence to inform efforts to (a) understand, (b) build theory to explain, and (c) suggest interventions (and innovations) to address persistent challenges in STEM interest, education, learning, and participation.In 2015, average mathematics scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) declined in fourth and eighth grades, the first declines in mathematics at these grade levels since 1990. Declines in U.S. mathematics performance has important implications for overall STEM education as well as STEM workforce and international competitiveness. Researchers at Rutgers University will conduct an analysis to isolate the cause of the mathematics decline by investigating the dimensionality of the NAEP assessment, state-level outcomes, and demographic trends. The team will use multilevel item response theory modeling techniques to investigate the declines by examining the factor structures to determine dimensionality across years. Researchers will examine subscores corresponding to each dimension of the factor structure at the state and national levels. In addition, subscores will be examined for trends in individual states and jurisdictions. Potentially, the analyses will allow for examination of factors related to state standards adoptions, demographic shifts, and participation rates.