Doctoral Dissertation Research: Sectarianism Without Borders: Big Data and Experimental Analyses of Transnational Sunni-Shia Conflict

中东和阿拉伯世界的宗派暴力已经上升到自20世纪80年代两伊战争以来的最高水平。在整个中东地区的许多国家，逊尼派和什叶派教派之间的暴力冲突随处可见。虽然大量定性文献讨论了这一主题，但我们缺乏对导致此类暴力的因素以及有助于升级或缓解该地区宗派紧张局势的因素的严格定量研究。与此相关的是，学者们对逊尼派-什叶派敌意加剧对受影响地区公民政治态度和行为的影响知之甚少。根据政治学和社会心理学的研究，PI将对阿拉伯世界宗派仇恨的原因和后果进行实证研究，特别关注那些可能导致暴力程度下降的因素。为了更深入地了解宗派冲突的原因，研究者利用了一个独特的数据集，包括Twitter和谷歌趋势数据、实时事件数据、民意调查以及实验室实验的结果。从本质上讲，该项目将为冲突和暴力极端主义的不稳定来源的动态提供实证见解，对地区稳定和全球安全产生关键影响。技术摘要：为了研究宗派紧张的原因，PI将使用Twitter和事件数据来探讨外生暴力事件如何导致宗派敌对升级，以及政治和宗教精英在这一过程中扮演的角色。PI建议在什叶派宗教节日期间进行一系列家庭调查，以评估教派紧张局势加剧对民主、威权主义和极端主义态度的因果影响。此外，PI将利用实验设计来测试强调共同威胁和受害经历的程度，以两种方式减少逊尼派和什叶派穆斯林之间的群体外偏见。首先，通过对由学生组成的样本进行实验，其次，通过使用Twitter实验。通过采用创新的方法论方法，建立并帮助调和现有的群体间关系理论，该项目对政治科学和社会心理学都做出了重要贡献。此外，通过帮助确定宗派敌对的原因和后果，并通过提供经验验证的方法来对抗这种紧张关系，这项工作将为政策制定者和学者提供有价值的见解。

General AbstractSectarian violence in the Middle East and Arab World have increased to their highest levels since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Violent conflict between Sunni and Shia sects can be found in a number of countries throughout the Middle East. While a large volume of qualitative literature address such this topic, we lack rigorous quantitative studies into the factors that lead to such violence, along with factors that serve to escalate or mitigate sectarian tensions in the region. Relatedly, scholars know little about the effects of heightened Sunni-Shia hostility on citizens' political attitudes and behaviors in the affected regions. Drawing on research in political science and social psychology, the PI will conduct an empirical examination of the causes and consequences of sectarian animosity in the Arab World, paying particular attention to those factors that may lead to reductions in the levels of violence. To gain a deeper understanding of the causes of sectarian conflict, the investigator utilizes a unique data set comprised of Twitter and Google Trends data, real-time event data, public opinion polls, as well as results from a lab experiment. Substantively, this project will offer empirical insights into the dynamics of a precarious source of conflict and violent extremism, with key ramifications both for regional stability and global security.Technical AbstractTo examine the causes of sectarian tensions, the PI will use Twitter and event data to explore how exogenous violent events lead to the escalation in sectarian hostility, and the role political and religious elites play in this process. The PI proposes to administer a series of household survey, timed to coincide with Shia religious holidays to assess the causal effect of elevated sectarian tensions on attitudes toward democracy, authoritarianism, and extremism. Additionally, the PI will utilize an experimental design to test the degree to which emphasizing common threats and experiences of victimization might serve to reduce outgroup prejudice among Sunni and Shia Muslims in two ways. First, by conducting the experiment on a sample comprised of students, and secondly, through the use of a Twitter experiment. By adopting innovative methodological approaches that build upon and help reconcile existing theories of intergroup relations, this project makes important contributions to both political science and social psychology. Furthermore, by helping to identify causes and consequence of sectarian hostility, and by providing empirically validated approaches to combat such tensions, this work is poised to provide valuable insights to policy makers and academics alike.