SBIR Phase I: Temblor--an innovative, mobile source of seismic risk understanding and solutions for the public and providers

这个小型企业创新研究(SBIR)第一阶段项目的更广泛的影响/商业潜力是试图弥合被称为“世界上最大的金融保护缺口”，即美国大地震对一个主要人口中心的影响。可悲的是，公众对这种事件的后果毫无准备，他们指望的是政府的帮助，而不是个人的韧性。仅在加利福尼亚州，就有300-400万户未投保的地震脆弱房屋和100万家未投保的脆弱企业。在需要加固的100-300万户家庭中，每年只有大约2万户进行了抗震改造。部分问题是，保险公司计算保单赔付的可能性，但房主无法计算，因此房主缺乏按照自己的最佳财务利益行事的手段。该项目正在开发的免费且无广告的移动应用程序使用公共数据和方法来解释房屋的地震风险，并展示购买地震更安全的房屋、翻新旧房屋或购买地震保险的好处。最重要的是，它这样做不会吓到用户、抚慰用户或使用户雪上加霜。购房者可以在开放日和家庭成员的住宅中使用这款应用程序。这个小企业创新研究(SBIR)第一阶段项目有三个主要目标：(1)地震危险性估计不仅将考虑地震震动，还将考虑房屋是否位于陡峭的斜坡上，或者位于液化、滑坡或断层带，这将增加破坏潜力。有了这一改进，保险在某些地点将比翻新更经济，因为在滑坡或液化区翻新成本较高。(2)该技术将结合多个实时数据流来预测应用程序用户刚刚感受到的地震，并在数十秒内通知他们。通过这一功能，该公司的目标是提供有史以来最快、最个性化、最有用和最准确的地震通知。(3)该应用程序将包括全球地震预报，这样地球上任何拥有手机的人都可以了解他们的地震暴露情况。这一预测是基于第一个也是唯一一个独立测试、发布和全球统一的地震发生模型。APP用户可以了解到他们一生中可能经历的最大地震，以及如何采取行动保护自己和家人。

The broader impact/commercial potential of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project is to attempt to close what has been called the "largest financial protection gap in the world," the impact of a large U.S. earthquake on a major population center. The public is woefully unprepared for the consequences of such an event, banking on government assistance rather than personal resilience. In California alone, there are 3-4 million uninsured seismically vulnerable homes and 1 million uninsured vulnerable businesses. Of 1-3 million homes in need of strengthening, only about 20,000 are seismically retrofitted each year. Part of the problem is that insurance companies calculate the likelihood of a payout for a policy, but homeowners cannot, so homeowners lack the means to act in their own best financial interests. The free and ad-free mobile app under development for this project uses public data and methods to explain a home's seismic risk and to show the benefits of buying a seismically safer home, retrofitting an older home, or purchasing earthquake insurance. Most important, it does so without scaring, soothing, or snowing the user. Homebuyers can use the app at open houses and also at the residences of family members.This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project has three principle objectives: (1) The seismic hazard estimates will account not only for earthquake shaking, but also for whether a home lies on a steep slope or in a liquefaction, landslide, or fault zone, which increase the damage potential. With this enhancement, insurance will be more economical than retrofit in some locations because it is expensive to retrofit in a landslide or liquefaction zone. (2) The technology will combine several real-time data streams to predict the earthquakes that app users have just felt, notifying them within tens of seconds. With this feature, the company aims to provide the fastest, most personalized, most useful, and most accurate earthquake notifications ever achieved. (3) The app will include a global earthquake forecast, so that anyone on Earth with a mobile phone can learn their earthquake exposure. This forecast is based on the first and only independently tested, published, and globally uniform earthquake occurrence model. App users can learn about the largest earthquake they are likely to experience in their lifetime, and how to take action to protect themselves and their families.