SBIR Phase I: Temblor--an innovative, mobile source of seismic risk understanding and solutions for the public and providers

这个小企业创新研究（SBIR）第一阶段项目的更广泛的影响/商业潜力是试图关闭被称为“世界上最大的金融保护缺口”，即美国大地震对主要人口中心的影响。可悲的是，公众对此类事件的后果毫无准备，他们寄希望于政府的援助，而不是个人的应变能力。仅在加州，就有300万至400万房屋没有投保，100万企业没有投保。在需要加固的100万至300万所房屋中，每年只有大约2万所房屋进行抗震加固。部分问题在于保险公司计算保单赔付的可能性，但房主不能，因此房主缺乏为自己的最佳经济利益行事的手段。该项目正在开发的免费且无广告的移动应用程序使用公共数据和方法来解释房屋的地震风险，并展示购买地震安全房屋，改造旧房屋或购买地震保险的好处。最重要的是，它不会吓唬、安抚或吓唬用户。购房者可以在房屋开放参观时使用这款应用，也可以在家庭成员的住所使用。这个小企业创新研究（SBIR）第一阶段项目有三个主要目标：(1)地震危险性评估不仅要考虑地震震动，还要考虑房屋是否位于陡坡或液化、滑坡或断层带，这些都会增加潜在的破坏。有了这一改进，保险将比在某些地方进行改造更经济，因为在滑坡或液化区进行改造是昂贵的。(2)该技术将结合多个实时数据流来预测应用程序用户刚刚感受到的地震，并在几十秒内通知他们。有了这个功能，公司的目标是提供最快、最个性化、最有用和最准确的地震通知。该应用程序将包括全球地震预报，这样地球上任何有手机的人都可以了解他们的地震风险。这一预报是基于第一个也是唯一一个独立测试、公布的全球统一地震发生模型。应用程序用户可以了解他们一生中可能经历的最大地震，以及如何采取行动保护自己和家人。

The broader impact/commercial potential of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project is to attempt to close what has been called the "largest financial protection gap in the world," the impact of a large U.S. earthquake on a major population center. The public is woefully unprepared for the consequences of such an event, banking on government assistance rather than personal resilience. In California alone, there are 3-4 million uninsured seismically vulnerable homes and 1 million uninsured vulnerable businesses. Of 1-3 million homes in need of strengthening, only about 20,000 are seismically retrofitted each year. Part of the problem is that insurance companies calculate the likelihood of a payout for a policy, but homeowners cannot, so homeowners lack the means to act in their own best financial interests. The free and ad-free mobile app under development for this project uses public data and methods to explain a home's seismic risk and to show the benefits of buying a seismically safer home, retrofitting an older home, or purchasing earthquake insurance. Most important, it does so without scaring, soothing, or snowing the user. Homebuyers can use the app at open houses and also at the residences of family members.This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project has three principle objectives: (1) The seismic hazard estimates will account not only for earthquake shaking, but also for whether a home lies on a steep slope or in a liquefaction, landslide, or fault zone, which increase the damage potential. With this enhancement, insurance will be more economical than retrofit in some locations because it is expensive to retrofit in a landslide or liquefaction zone. (2) The technology will combine several real-time data streams to predict the earthquakes that app users have just felt, notifying them within tens of seconds. With this feature, the company aims to provide the fastest, most personalized, most useful, and most accurate earthquake notifications ever achieved. (3) The app will include a global earthquake forecast, so that anyone on Earth with a mobile phone can learn their earthquake exposure. This forecast is based on the first and only independently tested, published, and globally uniform earthquake occurrence model. App users can learn about the largest earthquake they are likely to experience in their lifetime, and how to take action to protect themselves and their families.