SBIR Phase II: Temblor--an innovative, mobile source of seismic risk understanding and solutions for the public and providers

这个小型企业创新研究(SBIR)第二阶段项目的更广泛影响/商业潜力是试图减少世界上最大的金融保护缺口：大地震对一个主要人口中心的影响。可悲的是，公众对这样的事件没有做好准备，他们指望政府的帮助，而不是个人的韧性。在全球范围内，有4000亿美元的全球灾害风险没有投保。即使在加利福尼亚州，也有300-400万户没有保险的地震脆弱房屋和100万家没有保险的脆弱企业。人们需要了解他们在金钱和安全方面的脆弱性，他们需要学习如何保护自己和家人，最重要的是，他们需要激励他们采取行动。该项目的免费移动应用程序和博客使用公共数据和模型来解释房屋的地震风险，并展示购买地震更安全的房屋、翻新旧房屋或购买地震保险的好处。最重要的是，这款应用和博客这样做不会吓到、抚慰用户，也不会让用户感到不安。这个小型企业创新研究(SBIR)第二阶段项目正在构建一套全球地震危险和风险模型，使该公司能够预测地震对地球上任何地方任何建筑的影响。在这个过程的每一步，这项技术都摆脱了偏见、判断或专家意见的模型，取而代之的是算法、可重复和可测试的结构。该公司为保险代理人提供销售工具，给出房屋或建筑物所有者的地震评分和可能发生的最大地震的财务损失。它为保险公司提供了承保(定价)保险的手段，评估其投资组合的平均年损失，或评估任何可能发生的投资组合损失。对于巨灾债券，其偿付是由震动强度触发的，该公司提供了在任何时间段内附着的可能性。对于再保险公司，它提供了比较任何或所有地点的损失的能力。对于抵押贷款机构，它提供抵押贷款组合损失，以及在贷款人最容易受到影响的情况下对抵押贷款违约的估计。对于一家在全球拥有设施的跨国公司，该技术将对其全球风险进行评估和排名，以增强其弹性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The broader impact/commercial potential of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II project is to attempt to reduce the largest financial protection gap in the world: the impact of a great earthquake on a major population center. The public is woefully unprepared for such an event, banking on government assistance in lieu of personal resilience. Worldwide, there is $400 billion in uninsured global disaster risk. Even in California, there are 3-4 million uninsured seismically vulnerable homes and a million uninsured vulnerable businesses. People need to understand their vulnerability in terms of dollars and safety, they need to learn how they can protect themselves and their families, and most important, they need to be inspired to take action. This project's free mobile app and blog use public data and models to explain a home's seismic risk, and to show the benefits of buying a seismically safer home, retrofitting an older home, or buying earthquake insurance. Most important, the app and blog do so without scaring, soothing, or snowing the user. This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II project is building a suite of global seismic hazard and risk models that enable the company to forecast the consequences of earthquakes to any building, anywhere on Earth. At every step in the process, the technology rids the models of bias, judgment, or expert opinion, relying instead on algorithmic, reproducible and testable constructs. The company provides insurance agents with sales tools, giving a home or building owner's earthquake score and financial losses in the largest likely earthquake. It provides insurance companies with the means to underwrite (price) insurance, to assess the average annual losses of their portfolios, or to assess portfolio losses at any likelihood of occurrence. For a catastrophe bond whose payment is triggered by a shaking intensity, the company provides the likelihood of attachment over any time period. For a reinsurance company, it provides the ability to compare losses at any or all locations. For a mortgage lender, it provides mortgage portfolio losses, and an estimate of mortgage defaults in the scenario earthquakes to which the lender is most vulnerable. For a multinational company with globally distributed facilities, the technology assesses and ranks their worldwide risk to enhance their resilience.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.