SBIR Phase II: Temblor--an innovative, mobile source of seismic risk understanding and solutions for the public and providers

这个小企业创新研究（SBIR）二期项目的更广泛的影响/商业潜力是试图减少世界上最大的金融保护缺口：大地震对主要人口中心的影响。不幸的是，公众对这样的事件毫无准备，他们寄希望于政府的援助，而不是个人的应变能力。在全球范围内，没有保险的全球灾害风险高达4000亿美元。即使在加州，也有300万到400万的房屋没有投保，还有100万的企业没有投保。人们需要了解他们在金钱和安全方面的脆弱性，他们需要学习如何保护自己和家人，最重要的是，他们需要被激励去采取行动。该项目的免费移动应用程序和博客使用公共数据和模型来解释房屋的地震风险，并展示购买地震安全房屋，改造旧房屋或购买地震保险的好处。最重要的是，这款应用和博客不会让用户感到害怕、安慰或害怕。这个小企业创新研究（SBIR）二期项目正在建立一套全球地震灾害和风险模型，使公司能够预测地震对地球上任何地方任何建筑物的影响。在这个过程的每一步，这项技术都摆脱了偏见、判断或专家意见的模型，而是依赖于算法、可复制和可测试的结构。该公司为保险代理人提供销售工具，给出房屋或建筑物所有者的地震评分和可能发生的最大地震的经济损失。它为保险公司提供承保（价格）保险的手段，以评估其投资组合的平均年损失，或评估任何可能发生的投资组合损失。对于由地震强度触发支付的巨灾债券，该公司提供了任何时期的依恋可能性。对于再保险公司来说，它提供了在任何或所有地点比较损失的能力。对于抵押贷款机构来说，它提供抵押贷款组合损失，以及在最容易受到地震影响的情况下对抵押贷款违约的估计。对于拥有全球分布设施的跨国公司，该技术可对其全球风险进行评估和排名，以增强其应变能力。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The broader impact/commercial potential of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II project is to attempt to reduce the largest financial protection gap in the world: the impact of a great earthquake on a major population center. The public is woefully unprepared for such an event, banking on government assistance in lieu of personal resilience. Worldwide, there is $400 billion in uninsured global disaster risk. Even in California, there are 3-4 million uninsured seismically vulnerable homes and a million uninsured vulnerable businesses. People need to understand their vulnerability in terms of dollars and safety, they need to learn how they can protect themselves and their families, and most important, they need to be inspired to take action. This project's free mobile app and blog use public data and models to explain a home's seismic risk, and to show the benefits of buying a seismically safer home, retrofitting an older home, or buying earthquake insurance. Most important, the app and blog do so without scaring, soothing, or snowing the user. This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II project is building a suite of global seismic hazard and risk models that enable the company to forecast the consequences of earthquakes to any building, anywhere on Earth. At every step in the process, the technology rids the models of bias, judgment, or expert opinion, relying instead on algorithmic, reproducible and testable constructs. The company provides insurance agents with sales tools, giving a home or building owner's earthquake score and financial losses in the largest likely earthquake. It provides insurance companies with the means to underwrite (price) insurance, to assess the average annual losses of their portfolios, or to assess portfolio losses at any likelihood of occurrence. For a catastrophe bond whose payment is triggered by a shaking intensity, the company provides the likelihood of attachment over any time period. For a reinsurance company, it provides the ability to compare losses at any or all locations. For a mortgage lender, it provides mortgage portfolio losses, and an estimate of mortgage defaults in the scenario earthquakes to which the lender is most vulnerable. For a multinational company with globally distributed facilities, the technology assesses and ranks their worldwide risk to enhance their resilience.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.