LTREB: Evolutionary and demographic responses to climate in natural populations

这项研究的目的是了解快速变化的环境如何影响自然选择和种群规模。许多动植物物种可能会受到快速环境变化的威胁，例如干旱频率或严重程度的增加。这项研究将通过适应新的环境条件的过程来测试人口避免因气候变化而崩溃所需的条件。它将增加运行时间最长的数据集，了解植物的选择如何随着每年积雪和传粉者可获得性的变化而变化，并首次模拟适应这些条件如何使种群恢复。它将确定选择压力如何随着水分供应的变化而变化，叶片和花朵性状的遗传变异如何与气候变化相互作用来影响出生率和死亡率，以及授粉模式和传粉率的变化如何与物理环境相互作用来影响进化变化。将在下个世纪预测种群规模对气候变化的反应，并为其他物种可能如何反应提供一个案例研究。该项目将包括培训不同的本科生和研究生以及一名博士后助理。将带领落基山生物实验室进行实地科学考察，向普通公众和K-12教师进行宣传。此外，一个公民科学项目将允许公众为整个美国西部传粉者丰度地图的建立做出贡献。该项目将继续在落基山生物实验室附近的普通花园进行为期10年的田间试验，以测量对通菜亚种性状的自然选择和遗传变异的程度。Aggregata和Ipomopsis tenuituba(Polemoniae)结合有关绝对适合度如何因融雪日期而改变的独特数据，进化救援模型将在自然界中完全参数化。功能营养性状的选择与水分有效性之间的关系将通过两种方法来确定：一是20多年的选择观测数据，二是对融雪日期和夏季降水的新的实验处理。该项目将研究进化和人口统计反应对性状遗传变异的依赖性，这是从全同胞育种设计中衡量的。对每年融雪日期的适应性表型可塑性的程度也将被纳入种群规模的预测。尽管以前植物对气候的适应研究强调了营养特性，但花特性(形状、颜色、奖励、挥发物)也将被模拟，因为它们的选择取决于水分可获得性和传粉者的丰度。

The purpose of this study is to understand how a rapidly changing environment influences natural selection and population size. Many species of plants and animals can be threatened by rapid environmental change, such as an increase in frequency or severity of drought. This research will test the conditions required for a population to avoid collapse due to climate change through a process of adapting to the new environmental conditions. It will add to the longest-running data set on how selection in plants changes in response to changes in annual snowpack and pollinator availability, and to model for the first time how adaptation to these conditions allows populations to recover. It will determine how selective pressures change in response to water availability, how genetic variation in leaf and flower traits interact with climate change to affect birth and death rates, and how changes in pollination patterns and rates interact with the physical environment to influence evolutionary change. Responses of population size to climate change will be projected over the next century and provide a case study of how other species might respond. The project will include the training of diverse undergraduate and graduate students and a postdoctoral associate. Field science tours at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory will be led for outreach to the general public and to K-12 teachers. In addition, a citizen science project will allow the public to contribute to the building of maps of pollinator abundance across the western US.This project will continue a 10-year field experiment with common gardens near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory to measure natural selection on, and the extent of genetic variance in, traits of Ipomopsis aggregata subspp. aggregata and Ipomopsis tenuituba (Polemoniaceae). In combination with unique data on how absolute fitness is altered by snowmelt date, models for evolutionary rescue will be fully parameterized in nature. The relationship between selection of functional vegetative traits and water availability will be determined with two approaches: observational data on selection over two decades and a new experimental manipulation of snowmelt date and summer precipitation. The project will examine the dependence of evolutionary and demographic responses on genetic variance in traits, as measured from a full-sib breeding design. The extent of adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to annual snowmelt date will also be incorporated into projections of population size. Although prior studies of plant adaptation to climate have emphasized vegetative traits, floral traits (shape, color, rewards, volatiles) will be modeled as well, as selection on them depends on water availability and pollinator abundance.