LTREB: Evolutionary and demographic responses to climate in natural populations

本研究的目的是了解快速变化的环境如何影响自然选择和种群规模。许多动植物物种可能受到环境迅速变化的威胁，如干旱频率或严重程度的增加。这项研究将测试种群通过适应新环境条件的过程避免因气候变化而崩溃所需的条件。它将增加关于植物选择如何响应年度积雪和传粉媒介可用性变化的最长运行数据集，并首次模拟适应这些条件如何使种群恢复。它将确定选择压力如何根据水的可用性而变化，叶和花性状的遗传变异如何与气候变化相互作用以影响出生率和死亡率，以及授粉模式和速率的变化如何与物理环境相互作用以影响进化变化。人口规模对气候变化的反应将在下一个世纪进行预测，并提供其他物种如何应对的案例研究。该项目将包括培训不同的本科生和研究生以及博士后助理。将在落基山生物实验室进行实地科学图尔斯之旅，以向公众和K-12教师推广。此外，一个公民科学项目将允许公众为整个美国西部的传粉者丰富度地图的建设做出贡献。该项目将继续在落基山生物实验室附近的普通花园进行为期10年的实地实验，以测量自然选择和遗传变异的程度，Ipomopsis aggregata subspp的特征。aggregata和Ipomopsis tenuituba（Polemoniaceae）。结合关于融雪日期如何改变绝对适应度的独特数据，进化救援模型将在自然界中完全参数化。功能性植被性状的选择和水的可用性之间的关系将确定两种方法：观测数据选择超过二十年和一个新的实验操作的融雪日期和夏季降水。该项目将研究从全同胞育种设计中测量的进化和人口统计学反应对性状遗传变异的依赖性。适应性表型可塑性的程度，每年的融雪日期也将纳入人口规模的预测。虽然以前的植物适应气候的研究强调营养性状，花的性状（形状，颜色，奖励，挥发物）也将被建模，因为对它们的选择取决于水的可用性和传粉者的丰度。

The purpose of this study is to understand how a rapidly changing environment influences natural selection and population size. Many species of plants and animals can be threatened by rapid environmental change, such as an increase in frequency or severity of drought. This research will test the conditions required for a population to avoid collapse due to climate change through a process of adapting to the new environmental conditions. It will add to the longest-running data set on how selection in plants changes in response to changes in annual snowpack and pollinator availability, and to model for the first time how adaptation to these conditions allows populations to recover. It will determine how selective pressures change in response to water availability, how genetic variation in leaf and flower traits interact with climate change to affect birth and death rates, and how changes in pollination patterns and rates interact with the physical environment to influence evolutionary change. Responses of population size to climate change will be projected over the next century and provide a case study of how other species might respond. The project will include the training of diverse undergraduate and graduate students and a postdoctoral associate. Field science tours at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory will be led for outreach to the general public and to K-12 teachers. In addition, a citizen science project will allow the public to contribute to the building of maps of pollinator abundance across the western US.This project will continue a 10-year field experiment with common gardens near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory to measure natural selection on, and the extent of genetic variance in, traits of Ipomopsis aggregata subspp. aggregata and Ipomopsis tenuituba (Polemoniaceae). In combination with unique data on how absolute fitness is altered by snowmelt date, models for evolutionary rescue will be fully parameterized in nature. The relationship between selection of functional vegetative traits and water availability will be determined with two approaches: observational data on selection over two decades and a new experimental manipulation of snowmelt date and summer precipitation. The project will examine the dependence of evolutionary and demographic responses on genetic variance in traits, as measured from a full-sib breeding design. The extent of adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to annual snowmelt date will also be incorporated into projections of population size. Although prior studies of plant adaptation to climate have emphasized vegetative traits, floral traits (shape, color, rewards, volatiles) will be modeled as well, as selection on them depends on water availability and pollinator abundance.