Testing for Labor Rationing: Revealed Preference Estimates from Demand Shocks

摘要本研究项目将测试并量化低收入社区中剩余劳动力的存在，即那些被非自愿地配给出工资劳动力市场的个人。在美国和发展中国家，许多社会项目都是以剩余劳动力的概念为基础的；然而，目前还没有对其存在的实证检验。本研究将采用实地实验的方式，包括在附近城市创造许多工业就业机会，以检验农村环境下的劳动力剩余理论。如果在农村劳动力市场的工资和就业水平没有变化的情况下，农村工人能够被吸收到这些工厂工作岗位中，那么这就证明了剩余劳动力的存在。一项针对36个地方劳动力市场的试点研究为低收入社区存在劳动力过剩提供了初步支持。这项研究的结果将更好地解释低收入和高失业率社区劳动力市场的运作，从而为制定减少失业或对抗这种高失业率影响的政策提供指导。此外，通过揭示哪种类型的自雇小企业家更喜欢有工资的工作，研究结果对如何更好地制定目标计划，使高失业率环境下的小企业增长具有启示意义。研究结果将是理解发展经济学中许多问题的核心，并将应用于经济学的几个领域，如劳动经济学、公共经济学和产业政策。通过改善美国劳动力市场的运作，结果提高了美国的竞争力。本研究项目以印度农村劳动力市场为测试平台，采用实地实验的方法，获得农村劳动力市场对劳动力配给的显性偏好估计。将会有多达30%的周边村庄的工人到附近的工厂工作，这将会造成巨大的劳动力需求冲击。如果劳动力配给的数量至少与需求冲击一样大，那么将：(i)对当地村庄水平的工资没有影响，（ii）当地村庄的就业没有变化，以及（iii）对没有得到工厂工作的工人的积极就业溢出效应。此外，为了检验劳动力供给是否具有完全弹性，我们还将进行一个补充实验来估计劳动力供给的短期弹性。考察谁从失业溢出效应中受益，可以用来解释劳动力配给的两个可能组成部分——自愿失业和变相失业。最后，将传统的基于调查的失业测量与这些揭示的偏好估计进行比较，可以帮助对传统调查测量的可靠性提供一些验证。本研究的结果为劳动力市场配给提供了强有力的微观经济基础，并为低收入和发达国家的劳动力市场政策提供了指导。

AbstractThis research project will test for and quantify the existence of surplus labor---individuals who are involuntarily rationed out of the wage labor market---in low income communities. In both the U.S. and in developing countries, many social programs are predicated on the idea of surplus labor; yet there has not been an empirical test of its existence. The research will use field experiments which involve creating many industry jobs in a nearby city to test the labor surplus theory in a rural setting. If rural workers can be absorbed into these factory jobs without any change in the wage or employment levels in the rural labor market, then this will demonstrate the existence of surplus labor. A pilot study of 36 local labor markets provides initial support for the existence of labor surplus in low income communities. The results of this research will provide a better explanation of the functioning of labor markets in low income and high unemployment communities, and therefore provide guidance on crafting policies to reduce unemployment or to combat the effects of such high unemployment rates. In addition, by revealing which types of self-employed small entrepreneurs would prefer wage work, the findings have implications for how to better target programs to enable small business growth in high unemployment settings. The results will be central to understanding many issues in development economics and will have applications in several fields of economics, such as labor economics, public economics, and industrial policy. By improving the functioning of the U.S. labor market, the results thus improve U.S. competitiveness. This research project uses field experiments to obtain revealed preference estimates of labor rationing in rural labor markets, using rural labor markets in India as the test bed. A large labor demand shock will be created by recruiting up to about 30 percent of workers in surrounding villages to work in nearby factory jobs. If the amount of labor rationing is at least as big as the demand shock, then there will be: (i) no effect on local village level wages, (ii) no change in local village employment, and (iii) positive employment spillovers on workers who do not receive factory jobs. In addition, a supplementary experiment will be conducted to estimate the short run elasticity of supply of labor, in order to check whether labor supply is perfectly elastic. Examination of who benefits from unemployment spillovers can be used to explain the two possible components of labor rationing---voluntary unemployment and disguised unemployment. Finally, comparing traditional survey-based measures of unemployment to these revealed preference estimates can help provide some validation of the reliability of traditional survey measures. The results of this research provide strong microeconomic foundations of labor market rationing and provide guidance for labor market policies in both low income and developed countries.