RAPID:Institutional Design, Policy Conflict, and Sustainable Governance: Measuring Public Support for Consent-Based Nuclear Waste Facility Siting in the US

几十年来，在美国开发永久处置乏核燃料(SNF)计划的努力吸收了数十亿美元的税收，但主要是成功地造成了持久的政策僵局，而没有明确的规划前进道路。该项目利用一个独特的时间敏感型机会，从居住在德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州两个潜在志愿者SNF储存点附近的当地居民那里获得有意义和代表性的数据，以及这两个州关于公民对SNF管理设施选址策略的偏好的全州数据。该数据支持分析基于同意的替代选址设计与附近居民对核储存设施选址的公众同意之间的关系。该样本框架为今后研究机构设计与设施选址可持续支助之间关系的小组数据收集提供了便利。这项研究为设计核设施选址(或其他必要但难以选址的设施)的基于同意的选址方法的努力提供了信息，该方法有望为SNF处置计划实现可持续的公共和政策支持。研究团队和美国能源部SNF项目官员之间的长期关系表明，研究结果很可能具有直接的政策相关性。这项研究涉及设计和实施两阶段调查，对四个不同人口的随机样本实施：1.埃迪县和利亚县以及邻近的新墨西哥州以农村为主的县的居民(n=800)；2.安德森县和邻近的以农村为主的德克萨斯州县的居民(n=800)；3.新墨西哥州的居民(n=600)；以及4.德克萨斯州居民(n=600)这些县是潜在的SNF设施东道主及其邻近县。当地县的样本来自人口普查平衡的登记选民名单，并辅之以随机数字拨号(RDD)手机样本，以确保登记选民和未登记选民的样本平衡和具有代表性。这些县的居民中有很大一部分是西班牙裔，需要选择一种调到当地方言的西班牙语乐器。为了保持可比性，国家样本还采用了登记选民名单，并辅之以RDD手机名单。所有四个样本中的受访者都接受了15分钟的电话调查，测量了在运输和储存过程中暴露于SNF的感知风险；对相关当地SNF储存倡议的熟悉程度和支持程度；对不同选址过程选择的支持程度，包括当地同意的作用；以及各种人口统计和信仰系统衡量标准。在适当的情况下，这些措施旨在与私营部门每年在国家核态度调查中提出的问题相媲美，以便与国家基线进行比较。电话调查招募参与者在网上(西班牙语或英语)进行第二次调查，并提供现金奖励(10美元)。为当地图书馆的参与、移动设备和计算机访问提供了选择；最近的研究表明，特别是在西班牙语人口中，通过移动设备访问互联网的情况很普遍。网络调查采用了一种试验性设计，受访者被随机分配到同意过程的替代设计中，该过程的关键机构特征各不相同。根据所描述的同意过程，对设施选址的支持以及对最终选址决定的预期进行了衡量。还衡量了有关州和联邦机构的代表以及非政府倡导者对风险/利益沟通中的可信性和方向偏差的看法。最后，要求允许受访者参与预期的第二波调查，该调查将在一年后(2018年春季)进行。2018年的调查不是由这一快速奖励提供资金，但是，在这一快速奖励下收集的数据将用于利用后续建议来继续这项工作。2017年春季电话和网络调查提供了基线数据，用于比较随着选址过程经验的积累，对适当同意流程、信任和选址偏好的理解变化。

Efforts to develop a program for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the US have absorbed billions of tax dollars over many decades, yet have chiefly succeeded in generating an enduring policy stalemate without a clear programmatic path forward. This project exploits a unique time-sensitive opportunity to obtain meaningful and representative data from local residents living near two potential volunteer SNF storage sites in Texas and New Mexico, as well as state-wide data in both states, on citizen preferences for siting strategies for SNF management facilities. The data support analysis of the relationship between alternative consent-based siting designs and public consent for nuclear storage facility siting among nearby residents. The sample frame facilitates panel data collection for future studies on the relationship between institutional designs and sustainable support for facility siting. The research informs efforts to design a consent-based siting approach to nuclear facility siting (or other necessary but difficult-to-site facilities) that holds promise for achieving sustainable public and policy support for SNF disposal programs. The long-standing relationship between the research team and SNF program officers at the US Department of Energy suggests that the study results will very likely be of direct policy relevance. This study involves the design and implementation of a two-stage survey, implemented to random samples of four distinct populations:1. Residents of Eddy and Lea Counties, and the adjacent largely rural counties in New Mexico (n=800);2. Residents of Anderson County, and the adjacent largely rural counties in Texas (n=800);3. Residents of the State of New Mexico (n=600); and4. Residents of the state of Texas (n=600)The counties are prospective SNF facility hosts and their adjacent counties. The local county samples are drawn from Census balanced lists of registered voters, supplemented by random digit dialing (RDD) cell-phone samples, to assure balanced and representative samples of registered and unregistered voters. A large fraction of the residents of these counties are Hispanic, requiring the option of a Spanish-language instrument, tuned to the local dialect. To maintain comparability, the state samples also employ registered voter lists supplemented by RDD cell-phone list. Respondents in all four samples receive a 15-minute phone survey, with measures of perceived risks of exposure to SNF in transport and storage; familiarity with and level of support for the relevant local SNF storage initiative; levels of support for variations in siting process options, including the role of local consent; and a variety of demographic and belief system measures. Where relevant, the measures are designed to be comparable with the questions asked annually in national surveys on nuclear attitudes fielded by the PIs to permit comparison with national baselines. The phone survey recruits participants to take a second survey on-line (in either Spanish or English), offering a cash incentive ($10) for participation. Options are provided for local library participation, mobile devices, and computer access; recent studies have demonstrated that, particularly in Spanish-language populations, access to the internet via mobile devices is widespread. The web survey employs an experimental design in which respondents are randomly assigned to alternative designs for a consent process, varying key institutional features of that process. Based on the described consent process, support for the siting of the facility, and expectations about the eventual siting decision, are measured. Perceptions of the trustworthiness and directional bias in risk/benefit communications by representatives of involved state and federal agencies and non-governmental advocates are also measured. Finally, respondents are asked for permission to be contacted to participate in a prospective second wave survey, to be administered a year later (spring 2018). The 2018 survey is not be funded by this RAPID award, however, the data collected under this RAPID will be used to leverage follow-on proposals to continue this work. The spring 2017 phone and web surveys provides baseline data for comparison of changes in understanding of appropriate consent processes, trust, and siting preferences as experience with the siting process cumulates.