PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: SHADE: Surface Heat Assessment for Developed Environments

极端热浪事件因城市热岛效应而加剧，可能对城市居民的生活和健康产生重大影响。预计未来美国许多城市地区的气温上升只会加剧这些影响。该项目调查各种地球物理过程如何相互作用产生这种极端高温，以及热灾害以及城市人口对这种灾害的脆弱性和暴露如何促成这些极端事件的后果。它将开发和应用各种方法，以在空间(整个城市)和时间(全天)的高分辨率下评估城市地区极端高温事件的规模、频率和潜在后果。此外，这些方法将被用来评估气候和城市结构的变化，例如通过采用绿化屋顶或城市树木等缓解行动，将如何改变热危害和风险。本项目将开发城市温度危害的物理和概率模型，以实现以下项目目标：(I)改进城市极端热的物理模型，以更好地了解其物理前兆；(Ii)改进城市极端热的概率模型，以便能够更有效地降低未来日益增加的危险；(Iii)了解和模拟城市人口对极端高温的空间和时间变化的脆弱性，以及(Iv)将这些改进的危害和脆弱性模型结合起来，以评估由此产生的风险以及旨在减少风险的缓解战略的有效性。由于热浪和城市热岛效应的相互作用，本项目中提出的确定性和概率建模方法的组合将允许对当前和未来的高温危害进行更准确的预测(包括适当量化不确定性)。在这项研究期间开发的具体组成部分，如概率温度模型、风险量化方法和风险缓解战略组合的有效性评估，将引起科学界和从事相关工作的行业的其他研究人员的兴趣。开发的方法将应用于宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡和加利福尼亚州洛杉矶等城市的综合分析。

Extreme heat wave events, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, can have major impacts on the lives and health of city residents. Projected future temperature increases for many urban areas of the United States will only exacerbate these impacts. This project investigates how various geophysical processes interact to produce this extreme heat, and how heat hazard and the vulnerability and exposure of urban populations to this hazard contribute to the consequences of these extreme events. It will develop and apply methods for the assessment of the magnitude, frequency, and potential consequences of extreme heat events in urban areas at a high resolution in space (throughout a city) and time (throughout a day). Furthermore, these methods will be used to assess how changes to the climate and to the urban fabric, for example via mitigation actions such as adopting green roofs or urban trees, will alter the heat hazard and risk.This project will develop physical and probabilistic models for urban temperature hazards, to accomplish the following project goals: (i) improving the physical modeling of extreme urban heat to better understand its physical precursors, (ii) improving the probabilistic modeling of extreme urban heat to enable more efficient downscaling of its increasing hazard in the future, (iii) understanding and modeling the spatially and temporally varying vulnerability of the urban population to extreme heat, and (iv) combining these improved hazard and vulnerability models to assess the resulting risk and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies that aim to reduce it. The combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling approaches proposed in this project will allow for more accurate predictions (including appropriate quantification of uncertainties) of current and future high temperature hazards due to the interaction of heat waves and the urban heat island effect in cities. Specific components developed during this research, such as probabilistic temperature models, risk quantification methods, and assessments of the effectiveness of portfolios of risk mitigation strategies will be of interest to other researchers in the scientific community and in industry pursuing related work. The developed methods will be applied to the integrated analysis of cities as Pittsburgh, PA, and Los Angeles, CA.