PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: SHADE: Surface Heat Assessment for Developed Environments

城市热岛效应加剧的极端热浪事件可能对城市居民的生活和健康产生重大影响。预计美国许多城市地区未来的气温上升只会加剧这些影响。该项目调查了各种地球物理过程如何相互作用产生这种极端高温，以及高温危害和城市人口对这种危害的脆弱性和暴露如何促成这些极端事件的后果。它将制定和应用各种方法，以高分辨率的空间（整个城市）和时间（全天）评估城市地区极端高温事件的规模、频率和潜在后果。此外，这些方法将用于评估气候和城市结构的变化，例如通过采用绿色屋顶或城市树木等缓解行动，将如何改变热危害和风险。该项目将开发城市温度危害的物理和概率模型，以实现以下项目目标：（i）改进城市极端高温的物理建模，以更好地了解其物理前兆，（ii）改进城市极端高温的概率建模，以便能够更有效地降低其未来日益增加的危害，㈢了解城市人口在空间和时间上对极端高温的脆弱性并建立模型，以及（iv）将这些改进的灾害和脆弱性模型结合起来，以评估由此产生的风险以及旨在降低风险的缓解策略的有效性。本项目中提出的确定性和概率性建模方法的结合将允许更准确的预测（包括对不确定性的适当量化），以评估热浪和城市热岛效应相互作用造成的当前和未来高温危害。在这项研究中开发的具体组件，如概率温度模型，风险量化方法，以及风险缓解策略组合的有效性评估，将是在科学界和工业界从事相关工作的其他研究人员感兴趣。所开发的方法将被应用到城市的综合分析，如匹兹堡，宾夕法尼亚州，和洛杉矶，加利福尼亚州。

Extreme heat wave events, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, can have major impacts on the lives and health of city residents. Projected future temperature increases for many urban areas of the United States will only exacerbate these impacts. This project investigates how various geophysical processes interact to produce this extreme heat, and how heat hazard and the vulnerability and exposure of urban populations to this hazard contribute to the consequences of these extreme events. It will develop and apply methods for the assessment of the magnitude, frequency, and potential consequences of extreme heat events in urban areas at a high resolution in space (throughout a city) and time (throughout a day). Furthermore, these methods will be used to assess how changes to the climate and to the urban fabric, for example via mitigation actions such as adopting green roofs or urban trees, will alter the heat hazard and risk.This project will develop physical and probabilistic models for urban temperature hazards, to accomplish the following project goals: (i) improving the physical modeling of extreme urban heat to better understand its physical precursors, (ii) improving the probabilistic modeling of extreme urban heat to enable more efficient downscaling of its increasing hazard in the future, (iii) understanding and modeling the spatially and temporally varying vulnerability of the urban population to extreme heat, and (iv) combining these improved hazard and vulnerability models to assess the resulting risk and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies that aim to reduce it. The combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling approaches proposed in this project will allow for more accurate predictions (including appropriate quantification of uncertainties) of current and future high temperature hazards due to the interaction of heat waves and the urban heat island effect in cities. Specific components developed during this research, such as probabilistic temperature models, risk quantification methods, and assessments of the effectiveness of portfolios of risk mitigation strategies will be of interest to other researchers in the scientific community and in industry pursuing related work. The developed methods will be applied to the integrated analysis of cities as Pittsburgh, PA, and Los Angeles, CA.