PREEVENTS Track 2: Understanding Extreme Fire Weather Hazards and Improving Resilience in Coastal Santa Barbara, California

预防措施轨道 2：了解加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉沿海地区的极端火灾天气危害并提高抵御能力

• 批准号: 1664173
• 负责人: Leila Carvalho
• 金额: $ 150.9万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1664173&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; Understanding; Extreme; Fire

Wildfires at the wildland-urban interface pose significant hazards to people and the environment and cost billions of dollars. Santa Barbara County in California encapsulates one of the worst wildfire hazard scenarios affecting highly populated areas along the west coast of the United States. A significant portion of the Santa Barbara population resides in mountain areas near canyons and passes in the wildland-urban interface, and are particularly vulnerable to fires during extreme weather conditions. Residents use winding narrow roads to leave these areas, which increases the time needed for mandatory evacuations. Frequent gusty downslope winds accompanied by rapid warming and decreased relative humidity are among the most significant fire weather conditions affecting coastal Santa Barbara. Such conditions have enhanced the severity of 15 major wildfires since 1955. This project will integrate atmospheric, fire spread and transportation models to enhance the current understanding of extreme fire weather regimes and wildfire behavior in the wildland-urban interface in Santa Barbara County. The main goal of the project is to improve existing fire-weather forecast methods, increase resilience, and reduce socioeconomic impacts of wildfires. The project also will improve understanding of the effects of natural hazards and extreme events on societal preparedness in the context of evacuation planning. The results of the project can be applied to many other mountain areas in Southern California where fires present a major hazard. The project will provide key outreach materials for dissemination to government agencies that could be available to the public. Moreover, the project supports the development of new educational courses, and supports the training of graduate students and a postdoctoral investigatorThis project will develop unique approaches to make substantial intellectual advances in a natural hazard problem of high impact to society. The research links fire-weather, fire behavior and evacuation planning and focuses on the coastal area of Santa Barbara County with a population of over 200,000 people. The project will develop a new framework centered on the specific objectives of: 1) understanding synoptic-to-mesoscale mechanisms of downslope windstorms and extreme fire-weather regimes (i.e., gusty winds, low humidity, high temperature and high vegetation fuels), 2) investigating probabilities of fire spread and fire-weather risk at the wildland-urban interface, 3) developing enhanced evacuation strategies using transportation and land use models and 4) carrying on a comprehensive program to transfer research findings to Federal, State and Local Agencies and the community of Santa Barbara. This research will create scenarios to examine evacuation strategies using transportation modeling, significantly enhancing understanding of extreme fire weather regimes on various spatial and temporal scales and improving the present capability to model and forecast these hazardous events.

在荒地和城市交界处发生的野火对人类和环境造成了重大危害，造成了数十亿美元的损失。加利福尼亚州的圣巴巴拉县是影响美国西海岸人口稠密地区的最严重的野火灾害之一。圣巴巴拉市有很大一部分人口居住在靠近峡谷的山区和荒野与城市交界的通道，在极端天气条件下特别容易发生火灾。居民们使用蜿蜒狭窄的道路离开这些地区，这增加了强制撤离所需的时间。频繁的阵风下坡风伴随着快速变暖和相对湿度下降是影响圣巴巴拉海岸的最重要的火灾天气条件。自1955年以来，这种情况已经加剧了15起重大野火的严重程度。该项目将整合大气、火灾蔓延和运输模型，以增强对圣巴巴拉县荒地-城市界面极端火灾天气状况和野火行为的当前理解。该项目的主要目标是改进现有的火灾天气预报方法，提高抗灾能力，减少野火的社会经济影响。该项目还将提高对疏散规划中自然灾害和极端事件对社会准备的影响的认识。该项目的结果可以应用于南加州的许多其他山区，那里的火灾是一个主要的危险。该项目将提供关键的外联材料，分发给政府机构，供公众使用。此外，该项目支持开发新的教育课程，并支持培养研究生和博士后研究员。该项目将开发独特的方法，在对社会有重大影响的自然灾害问题上取得实质性的智力进步。该研究将火灾天气、火灾行为和疏散计划联系起来，并将重点放在人口超过20万的圣巴巴拉县沿海地区。该项目将制定一个以以下具体目标为中心的新框架：1)了解下坡风暴和极端火灾天气（即强风、低湿度、高温和高植被燃料）的天气-中尺度机制；2)调查野火蔓延的概率和野火天气风险在荒地-城市界面；3)利用交通和土地利用模型制定增强的疏散策略；4)开展一项综合计划，将研究成果转让给联邦政府。州和地方机构以及圣巴巴拉社区。本研究将创建场景，利用交通建模来检验疏散策略，显著增强对不同时空尺度上极端火灾天气状况的理解，并提高目前对这些危险事件建模和预测的能力。

项目成果

Simulating Potential Impacts of Fuel Treatments on Fire Behavior and Evacuation Time of the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California

模拟燃料处理对 2018 年北加州营地火灾的火灾行为和疏散时间的潜在影响

• DOI: 10.3390/fire5020037
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Fire
• 作者: Seto, Daisuke;Jones, Charles;Trugman, Anna T.;Varga, Kevin;Plantinga, Andrew J.;Carvalho, Leila M.;Thompson, Callum;Gellman, Jacob;Daum, Kristofer
• 通讯作者: Daum, Kristofer

Simulating Sundowner Winds in Coastal Santa Barbara: Model Validation and Sensitivity

模拟圣巴巴拉沿海的日落风：模型验证和灵敏度

• DOI: 10.3390/atmos10030155
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Atmosphere
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Duine, Gert-Jan;Jones, Charles;Carvalho, Leila;Fovell, Robert
• 通讯作者: Fovell, Robert

Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather

• DOI: 10.1007/s12061-020-09357-0
• 发表时间: 2020-07
• 期刊: Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Alan T. Murray;L. Carvalho;R. Church;Charles Jones;D. Roberts;Jing Xu;K. Zigner;D. Nash

The Effect of Upstream Orography on the Onset of Sundowner Winds in Coastal Santa Barbara, CA

上游地形对加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉沿海日落风的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033791
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Duine, Gert‐Jan;Carvalho, Leila M. V.;Jones, Charles;Zigner, Katelyn
• 通讯作者: Zigner, Katelyn

Reaction intensity partitioning: a new perspective of the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component

反应强度划分：国家火灾危险等级系统能量释放组件的新视角

• DOI: 10.1071/wf20025
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: International Journal of Wildland Fire
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Fujioka, Francis M.;Weise, David R.;Chen, Shyh-Chin;Kim, Seung Hee;Kafatos, Menas C.
• 通讯作者: Kafatos, Menas C.