PREEVENTS Track 2: Understanding Extreme Fire Weather Hazards and Improving Resilience in Coastal Santa Barbara, California

预防措施轨道 2：了解加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉沿海地区的极端火灾天气危害并提高抵御能力

• 批准号: 1664173
• 负责人: Leila Carvalho
• 金额: $ 150.9万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1664173&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; Understanding; Extreme; Fire

Wildfires at the wildland-urban interface pose significant hazards to people and the environment and cost billions of dollars. Santa Barbara County in California encapsulates one of the worst wildfire hazard scenarios affecting highly populated areas along the west coast of the United States. A significant portion of the Santa Barbara population resides in mountain areas near canyons and passes in the wildland-urban interface, and are particularly vulnerable to fires during extreme weather conditions. Residents use winding narrow roads to leave these areas, which increases the time needed for mandatory evacuations. Frequent gusty downslope winds accompanied by rapid warming and decreased relative humidity are among the most significant fire weather conditions affecting coastal Santa Barbara. Such conditions have enhanced the severity of 15 major wildfires since 1955. This project will integrate atmospheric, fire spread and transportation models to enhance the current understanding of extreme fire weather regimes and wildfire behavior in the wildland-urban interface in Santa Barbara County. The main goal of the project is to improve existing fire-weather forecast methods, increase resilience, and reduce socioeconomic impacts of wildfires. The project also will improve understanding of the effects of natural hazards and extreme events on societal preparedness in the context of evacuation planning. The results of the project can be applied to many other mountain areas in Southern California where fires present a major hazard. The project will provide key outreach materials for dissemination to government agencies that could be available to the public. Moreover, the project supports the development of new educational courses, and supports the training of graduate students and a postdoctoral investigatorThis project will develop unique approaches to make substantial intellectual advances in a natural hazard problem of high impact to society. The research links fire-weather, fire behavior and evacuation planning and focuses on the coastal area of Santa Barbara County with a population of over 200,000 people. The project will develop a new framework centered on the specific objectives of: 1) understanding synoptic-to-mesoscale mechanisms of downslope windstorms and extreme fire-weather regimes (i.e., gusty winds, low humidity, high temperature and high vegetation fuels), 2) investigating probabilities of fire spread and fire-weather risk at the wildland-urban interface, 3) developing enhanced evacuation strategies using transportation and land use models and 4) carrying on a comprehensive program to transfer research findings to Federal, State and Local Agencies and the community of Santa Barbara. This research will create scenarios to examine evacuation strategies using transportation modeling, significantly enhancing understanding of extreme fire weather regimes on various spatial and temporal scales and improving the present capability to model and forecast these hazardous events.

在荒地-城市交界处的野火对人类和环境构成重大危害，并造成数十亿美元的损失。加州的圣巴巴拉县是影响美国西海岸沿着人口稠密地区的最严重的野火危险情景之一。圣巴巴拉人口的很大一部分居住在峡谷附近的山区，并在荒地与城市交界处通行，在极端天气条件下特别容易受到火灾的影响。居民使用弯曲狭窄的道路离开这些地区，这增加了强制疏散所需的时间。频繁的阵风下坡风伴随着快速变暖和相对湿度下降是影响沿海圣巴巴拉最重要的火灾天气条件之一。自1955年以来，这种情况加剧了15起重大野火的严重程度。该项目将整合大气，火灾蔓延和交通模型，以提高目前的极端火灾天气制度和野火行为的认识在圣巴巴拉县的荒地城市界面。该项目的主要目标是改进现有的火灾天气预报方法，提高复原力，减少野火的社会经济影响。该项目还将提高对自然灾害和极端事件在疏散规划方面对社会准备工作的影响的认识。该项目的结果可以应用于南加州的许多其他山区，那里的火灾是一个重大的危险。该项目将提供关键的外联材料，分发给政府机构，并向公众提供。此外，该项目还支持开发新的教育课程，并支持培养研究生和博士后研究员。该研究将火灾天气、火灾行为和疏散规划联系起来，重点关注人口超过20万的圣巴巴拉县沿海地区。该项目将围绕以下具体目标开发一个新的框架：1）了解下坡风暴和极端火灾天气系统的天气到中尺度机制（即，阵风，低湿度，高温和高植被燃料），2）调查火灾蔓延的可能性和火灾天气风险在荒地城市接口，3）开发使用交通和土地使用模型增强疏散策略和4）进行一项全面的计划，以转移研究成果给联邦，州和地方机构和社区的圣巴巴拉。这项研究将创建场景，使用交通建模来检查疏散策略，显着提高对各种空间和时间尺度上的极端火灾天气状况的理解，并提高目前建模和预测这些危险事件的能力。

项目成果

Simulating Potential Impacts of Fuel Treatments on Fire Behavior and Evacuation Time of the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California

模拟燃料处理对 2018 年北加州营地火灾的火灾行为和疏散时间的潜在影响

• DOI: 10.3390/fire5020037
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Fire
• 作者: Seto, Daisuke;Jones, Charles;Trugman, Anna T.;Varga, Kevin;Plantinga, Andrew J.;Carvalho, Leila M.;Thompson, Callum;Gellman, Jacob;Daum, Kristofer
• 通讯作者: Daum, Kristofer

Simulating Sundowner Winds in Coastal Santa Barbara: Model Validation and Sensitivity

模拟圣巴巴拉沿海的日落风：模型验证和灵敏度

• DOI: 10.3390/atmos10030155
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Atmosphere
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Duine, Gert-Jan;Jones, Charles;Carvalho, Leila;Fovell, Robert
• 通讯作者: Fovell, Robert

Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather

• DOI: 10.1007/s12061-020-09357-0
• 发表时间: 2020-07
• 期刊: Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Alan T. Murray;L. Carvalho;R. Church;Charles Jones;D. Roberts;Jing Xu;K. Zigner;D. Nash

The Effect of Upstream Orography on the Onset of Sundowner Winds in Coastal Santa Barbara, CA

上游地形对加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉沿海日落风的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033791
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Duine, Gert‐Jan;Carvalho, Leila M. V.;Jones, Charles;Zigner, Katelyn
• 通讯作者: Zigner, Katelyn

Reaction intensity partitioning: a new perspective of the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component

反应强度划分：国家火灾危险等级系统能量释放组件的新视角

• DOI: 10.1071/wf20025
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: International Journal of Wildland Fire
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Fujioka, Francis M.;Weise, David R.;Chen, Shyh-Chin;Kim, Seung Hee;Kafatos, Menas C.
• 通讯作者: Kafatos, Menas C.