P2C2: Decomposition and Reconstruction of Drought Variability Across the Continental United States and Northern Mexico

P2C2：美国大陆和墨西哥北部干旱变化的分解与重建

• 批准号: 1703029
• 负责人: Alton Williams
• 金额: $ 50.1万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2021-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1703029&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Decomposition; Reconstruction; Drought; Variability

The western United States (U.S.) and northern Mexico have experienced intense and prolonged droughts over the past two decades that have reduced water resources, enhanced wildfire activity, and raised concerns regarding whether water policies are designed for a sufficiently wide range of future possibilities. Concurrently, much of the eastern U.S. experienced a centennial wetting trend, minimal warming, and repeated floods, but paleo evidence indicates that this region is nonetheless prone to devastating decade-scale droughts. It is unclear if these contrasting trends are dynamically related and whether they have been aided by anthropogenic forcing. The observed low-frequency hydroclimate events that motivate this research are abnormal in the observational record, but paleoclimate reconstructions indicate that extreme, prolonged swings in hydroclimate often occur naturally. The aim of the project is to extend a range of spatially continuous drought metrics for at least 1,200 years.This project will use new gridded reconstructions of annual hydroclimatic variability over the past millennium to better understand the drivers of low frequency, decadal scale hydroclimate variability across the US and northern Mexico using three research approaches: (1) determine the degree to which anthropogenic warming has altered the millennial standing of observed soil-moisture in recent decades; (2) reconstruct the leading modes of interannual to multi-decadal drought variability over the past millennium across the U.S. and northern Mexico, with particular focus on a mode critical for California water resources and a mode reflecting an east-west dipole that may lend insights regarding observed multi-decade trends; and (3) reconstruct and diagnose the east-west dipole in drought variability across the U.S. and determine how the expected magnitude of natural multi-decade variations in this mode map onto projected climate trends.The broader impacts involve support for an early career scientist and the development of regional- and continental- scale reconstructions of hydroclimate variability in the United States spanning the past millennium of value to water resource managers.

过去二十年来，美国西部和墨西哥北部经历了严重而长期的干旱，导致水资源减少、野火活动加剧，并引发了人们对水资源政策是否为足够广泛的未来可能性而设计的担忧。 与此同时，美国东部的大部分地区经历了百年一遇的湿润趋势、最小的变暖和反复的洪水，但古证据表明该地区仍然容易遭受毁灭性的​​十年级干旱。目前尚不清楚这些对比趋势是否动态相关，以及它们是否受到人为强迫的帮助。推动这项研究的观测到的低频水文气候事件在观测记录中是异常的，但古气候重建表明，水文气候的极端、长期波动经常自然发生。该项目的目标是将一系列空间连续干旱指标扩展到至少 1,200 年。该项目将使用过去千年中年度水文气候变化的新网格重建，通过三种研究方法更好地了解美国和墨西哥北部低频、十年尺度水文气候变化的驱动因素：(1) 确定人为变暖在多大程度上改变了千年水文气候状况。 近几十年来观测土壤湿度； （2）重建过去千年美国和墨西哥北部年际至数十年干旱变化的主要模式，特别关注对加州水资源至关重要的模式和反映东西偶极子的模式，这可能有助于了解观察到的数十年趋势； (3) 重建和诊断美国各地干旱变化的东西向偶极子，并确定该模式中数十年自然变化的预期幅度如何映射到预测的气候趋势。更广泛的影响包括对早期职业科学家的支持以及对美国过去千年的水文气候变化的区域和大陆规模重建的开发，这对水资源管理者具有价值。

项目成果

Pacific Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Variability Are the Dominant Causes of Spatially Widespread Droughts in the Contiguous United States

• DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029219
• 发表时间: 2019-03
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Seung H. Baek;J. Smerdon;R. Seager;A. P. Williams;Benjamin I. Cook

Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures During the Late Sixteenth-Century North American Megadrought

十六世纪末北美特大干旱期间热带太平洋寒冷海面温度

• DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029323
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Cook, Benjamin I.;Williams, A. Park;Smerdon, Jason E.;Palmer, Jonathan G.;Cook, Edward R.;Stahle, David W.;Coats, Sloan
• 通讯作者: Coats, Sloan

Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl083177
• 发表时间: 2019-07
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: D. Bishop;A. P. Williams;R. Seager

A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States

基于 500 年树轮的美国西南部极端寒冷季节降水量和大气河流登陆数量的重建

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078089
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Steinschneider, Scott;Ho, Michelle;Williams, A. Park;Cook, Edward R.;Lall, Upmanu
• 通讯作者: Lall, Upmanu

Traumatic Resin Ducts in Alaska Mountain Hemlock Trees Provide a New Proxy for Winter Storminess

阿拉斯加山铁杉树上的创伤性树脂管为冬季暴风雨提供了新的替代物

• DOI: 10.1029/2018jg004849
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
• 作者: Gaglioti, Benjamin V.;Mann, Daniel H.;Williams, A. Park;Wiles, Gregory C.;Stoffel, Markus;Oelkers, Rose;Jones, Benjamin M.;Andreu‐Hayles, Laia
• 通讯作者: Andreu‐Hayles, Laia