Collaborative Research: Prediction of a Red Nova Outburst in the Star KIC 9832227

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Novae are stars that brighten dramatically almost overnight. The investigators predict that the star KIC9832227 will become a nova early in the year 2022 with an uncertainty of about six months. This star has been identified as a binary (two stars orbiting each other), with the two stars practically touching. The period of revolution of the two stars is decreasing in a manner similar to that of another star which did become a nova; the research team predicts that in 2022 they will actually merge to become one star, emitting an enormous amount of energy. The team plans to study the star further using the Hubble Space Telescope, the Very Long Baseline Array, and several other telescopes. They will determine the properties of the two stars and monitor the changing period of revolution. They will also test models for how stars merge. They will collaborate with educators to produce education materials, consistent with science standards, for 6-12 grade students and teachers. Undergraduates at their two institutions will be involved in the research.The investigators determined that the period of revolution of KIC9832227 was decreasing in an exponential manner similar to an earlier nova, V1309 Sco. Archival research enabled researchers to determine that the period of this earlier nova also decreased exponentially. The team has considered other factors, such as additional companion stars, that could have caused the period change. They propose to monitor the period changes with small telescopes. They will also study the system further using large telescopes with spectrographs to rule out faint, as yet undiscovered, companion stars. Most novae have undergone previous mass loss, and they are proposing to use infrared and coronographic studies to detect the effects of dust around the star.