Mathematical Modeling of Honeybee Populations in Heterogeneous Environments: Linking Disease, Parasite, Nutrition, and Behavior

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The honeybee, Apis mellifera, is not only crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating 85% of plant species but also is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide with value between $15 and $20 billion annually as commercial pollinators in the U.S. Unfortunately, the recent sharp declines in honeybee population have been considered a global crisis. The primary cause of colony losses is the parasitic Varroa mites (Varroa destructor Anderson and Trueman). The study to unfold the mystery of the dramatic decline in honeybee populations and for developing control strategies for Varroa that reduce colony losses presents both challenges and opportunities for research and education. This research lives at the intersection of epidemiology, life sciences and applied mathematics, which enables the investigators to develop a template integrating interdisciplinary learning for students through shared research projects at the undergraduate and/or graduate level. The modeling framework provides not only a powerful system for examining multifactorial impacts on the honeybee colony system but also a great opportunity to explore how behavior, epidemiology and nutritional ecology coevolve within complex systems in general. This research can provide a basis for new strategies for controlling Varroa and reducing colony losses for beekeepers, and benefit land managers. The methods and results will be disseminated through online video lectures and in-person workshops that can be made available to the scientific community. Summer research projects will be provided to undergraduate students, especially underrepresented minority students, with a first-hand research experience.This collaborative research between Arizona State University and Carl Hayden Bee Research Center fosters a culture of theory-experiment collaboration with aims to develop realistic and mathematically tractable models that will be validated and parameterized via using field data. The interdisciplinary collaboration will enable the investigators to study the integrated effects of disease, parasitism, nutrition and behavior in changing environments and the effects on honeybee colony mortality across multiscale in time and space. Rigorous mathematics will be integrated with extensive field and lab data to investigate: 1. How parasite migration into colonies via foragers from other hives located at different landscape structures could affect the honeybee-parasite population dynamics with stage structures. 2. How the honeybee-parasite-virus interactions with the honeybee foraging behavior in seasonal environments cause colony losses. 3. How the crucial feedback mechanisms linking disease, parasitism, nutrient and honeybee foraging behavior might be responsible for the colony growth dynamics and survival in a dynamical environment with multilevel spatial components. Nonlinear nonautonomous differential equations within metapopulation frameworks and individual based models will be used to model the honeybee population with spatial scales ranging from the individual, the colony, to the regional level and timescale spanning from seconds, days, to months.