Investigation of the mechanisms that drive intraseasonal Arctic surface air temperature variability during the winter

本提案的科学目标是促进对寒冷季节北极地表气温日-月时间尺度变化背后的物理机制的理解。在过去的几十年里，北极变暖的速度是地球其他地区的两倍，而这种变暖主要发生在冬季，因为北极几乎没有阳光照射。直到最近，北极科学的主要研究重点一直是暖季过程；然而，最近的研究表明，在北极上空几乎没有阳光的冬季，与天气系统相关的暖湿空气从中纬度地区输送到北极。这些温暖潮湿的空气侵入，甚至可以使北极高纬度地区变暖，近年来发生得越来越频繁。这项研究将改善北极海冰的长期和季节性预测。它还将支持一名研究生。该团队将与宾夕法尼亚州立大学科学与学校中心（CSATS）合作，为来自宾夕法尼亚州城市和农村学区的中学教师举办两次为期一天的北极过程研讨会，这些学区的学生在科学、技术、工程和数学领域的代表性非常低。工作坊活动将提高教师对冬季研究北极的重要性的认识。CSATS将通过前后测试评估讲习班的有效性，对第二次讲习班的教学法课程和活动作出必要的调整。驱动北极地表气温日-月变化的机制将被研究。通过地表能量收支分析和大气湿静态能分析，对北极温度场的主导型演变进行了研究和量化。分析还将包括波能传播的计算。这些数据分析将由大气数值模式的计算加以补充。这项研究还将包括对洋流、海洋温度以及海冰数据的检查。

The scientific objectives of this proposal are to advance understanding of the physical mechanisms behind day-to-month time scale variability in Arctic surface air temperature during the cold season. Over the past several decades, the Arctic has been warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and most of this warming has occurred during winter when the Arctic receives very little sunlight. Until recently, the primary research focus in Arctic science has been on warm season processes; however, recent studies show that during winter when there is virtually no sunlight over the Arctic, warm moist air associated with weather systems is transported from the midlatitudes into the Arctic. These warm moist air intrusions, which can even warm high Arctic regions, have been occurring more frequently during recent years. This research will improve extended and seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice. It will also support a graduate student. The team will collaborate with The Center for Science and The Schools (CSATS) at Penn State University to lead two single-day workshops on Arctic processes for middle school teachers from urban and rural Pennsylvania school districts serving populations highly underrepresented in science, technology, engineering, and math fields. The workshop activity will enhance the teachers' awareness of the importance of studying the Arctic for the winter season. CSATS will evaluate the effectiveness of the workshop through pre/post tests, making necessary adjustments to the pedagogy sessions and activities for the second workshop.Mechanisms that drive day-to-month variability of Arctic surface air temperature will be investigated. The evolution of dominant patterns of Arctic temperature field will be examined and quantified by performing surface energy budget analysis and moist static energy analysis for the atmosphere. The analysis will also include calculations of wave energy propagation. These data analyses will be complemented by computations with a numerical model of the atmosphere. The research will also include an examination of ocean currents and ocean temperatures, as well as sea ice data.