CRISP Type 1: Protecting Coastal Infrastructure in a Changing Climate by Integrating Optimization Modeling and Stakeholder Observations

CRISP 类型 1：通过整合优化模型和利益相关者观察来保护气候变化中的沿海基础设施

• 批准号: 1735609
• 负责人: Kyle Mandli
• 金额: $ 49.93万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2021-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1735609&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CRISP; Type; Protecting; Coastal; Infrastructure

Infrastructure - such as roads, bridges, railways - is the backbone of a functional and healthy community. When parts of this infrastructure are threatened, it is critical for society to respond to that threat or risk loss of life and property. One of the most significant threats to our infrastructure in recent U.S. history has been as the result of hurricanes, most memorably Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, and Hurricane Sandy, from which the infrastructure of New York City is still recovering from. Addressing these threats requires a multi-pronged approach that takes into account how infrastructure is connected and how failures in one type of infrastructure can impact the other. Questions then arise as to how we can protect ourselves from these threats. This Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) project develops a methodology that can answer questions related to protecting infrastructure. For instance, if a community wanted to build a sea-wall, questions such as "how high should it be?" and "where should it be placed?" must be asked. Other important questions compare a sea-wall with other protective options, such as: "Is a sea-wall the best protective measure?", "What about artificial sand dunes?", or "What about raising the infrastructure to a higher elevation?" And a related critically important question should be "Can adopting this option for protecting one community be detrimental to the safety of a neighboring community?" In addition to questions about the efficacy of protective measures, there are questions about how coastal protection may impact other coastal uses including recreational, cultural, and economic activities, and how negatively impacting these uses can be reduced while still maximizing protection. Resource constraints are also important to take into account and the question of how to optimally protect a community given constrained resources is critical. Such questions require the combination of advanced computing, mathematics and social science approaches to design tools to address these complex intersecting problems and placing these tools in the hands of decision makers that need to make these types of critical decisions. This is the goal of this project.Interdependent critical infrastructure in coastal regions has long been threatened by storm-induced flooding. Events such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina punctuated the need for plans to protect our infrastructure, but these events only reflect a possible future threat and do not fully address the unknown probability and impacts of a future threat. This uncertainty is only made more critical by the addition of climate change to exacerbate and amplify impacts, in particular sea-level rise. The goal of the proposed work is to address the threat from storm-induced flooding to interdependent infrastructure, including transportation and power systems and emergency services, by developing a methodology that can test various adaptation strategies. Strategies in this context include, but are not restricted to, building sea-walls or other physical, protective mechanisms. The proposed methodology would optimize strategies to maximize their protective abilities over time and space constrained by budgetary considerations. To accomplish this the methodology will contain four conceptual steps: (1) formulate a new strategy for adaptation, (2) computationally determine flooding levels given an ensemble of storms representing the likely threat and future sea-level rise, (3) estimate the damage over the ensemble to the infrastructure considered, and (4) using appropriate metrics evaluate the relative suitability of a given strategy including cost and social acceptability. This process would repeat iteratively until a sufficiently optimal strategy is found. Developing such a methodology will be challenging however. The magnitude of the computational effort needed is significant. Using a set of computational models that vary in accuracy and speed, the methodology will swap between models appropriate for the optimization stage. The methodology will also not be successful without stakeholder engagement. For this reason, interviews with key stakeholders will be an important component of the methodology design and implementation. Interviews will inform the identification of critical components of infrastructure and the interdependencies among them that could be affected by coastal flooding, assist in the design of the optimization metrics, and assess how well the output of the methodology matches stakeholder expectations. Community meetings will also be held to introduce and discuss the results of the methodology with local communities who would potentially benefit from the adaptation strategies. Finally, using New York City's complex infrastructure and recent events, the methodology will be validated.

道路、桥梁、铁路等基础设施是一个功能健全的社区的支柱。当这一基础设施的一部分受到威胁时，社会必须对这一威胁作出反应，否则就有生命和财产损失的危险。在美国近代历史上，对我们基础设施的最重大威胁之一是飓风，最令人难忘的是摧毁新奥尔良的卡特里娜飓风和桑迪飓风，纽约市的基础设施仍在恢复中。解决这些威胁需要多管齐下的方法，考虑到基础设施的连接方式以及一种类型的基础设施的故障如何影响另一种类型的基础设施。问题是我们如何保护自己免受这些威胁。这个关键的弹性相互依赖的基础设施系统和流程（CRISP）项目开发了一种方法，可以回答与保护基础设施相关的问题。例如，如果一个社区想建造一座海堤，诸如“它应该有多高？“和“应该放在哪里？”必须问。其他重要问题是将海堤与其他保护性选择进行比较，例如：“海堤是最好的保护措施吗？“、“人工沙丘怎么样？或者“把基础设施提升到更高的高度怎么样？与此相关的一个至关重要的问题应该是“采取这种保护一个社区的选择会损害邻近社区的安全吗？““除了保护措施的有效性问题外，还有一些问题是关于沿海保护如何影响其他沿海用途，包括娱乐、文化和经济活动，以及如何在最大限度地保护的同时减少这些用途的负面影响。资源限制也必须考虑在内，如何在资源有限的情况下以最佳方式保护社区的问题至关重要。这些问题需要结合先进的计算、数学和社会科学方法来设计工具，以解决这些复杂的交叉问题，并将这些工具交给需要做出这些关键决策的决策者。沿海地区相互依赖的关键基础设施长期以来一直受到风暴引发的洪水的威胁。飓风桑迪和卡特里娜等事件突出了保护我们基础设施的计划的必要性，但这些事件只反映了未来可能的威胁，并没有完全解决未来威胁的未知概率和影响。由于气候变化加剧和扩大了影响，特别是海平面上升，这种不确定性只会变得更加严重。 拟议工作的目标是通过制定一种可以测试各种适应战略的方法，解决风暴引发的洪水对相互依存的基础设施（包括交通和电力系统以及应急服务）的威胁。这方面的战略包括但不限于建造海堤或其他有形保护机制。拟议的方法将优化战略，在受预算因素限制的时间和空间内最大限度地发挥其保护能力。为实现这一目标，该方法将包括四个概念步骤：（1）制定新的适应战略，（2）在给定代表可能威胁和未来海平面上升的风暴集合的情况下，通过计算确定洪水水平，（3）估计集合对所考虑的基础设施的损害，以及（4）使用适当的度量来评估给定策略的相对适合性，包括成本和社会可接受性。这个过程会不断重复，直到找到一个足够优化的策略。然而，开发这样的方法将是具有挑战性的。所需的计算工作量是很大的。使用一组在精度和速度上不同的计算模型，该方法将在适合于优化阶段的模型之间进行交换。没有利益攸关方的参与，这一方法也不会成功。因此，与主要利益攸关方的访谈将是方法设计和实施的一个重要组成部分。访谈将有助于确定基础设施的关键组成部分以及它们之间可能受到沿海洪水影响的相互依赖关系，帮助设计优化指标，并评估方法的输出与利益相关者的期望是否相符。还将举行社区会议，介绍并与可能受益于适应战略的当地社区讨论该方法的结果。最后，利用纽约市复杂的基础设施和最近发生的事件，验证该方法。

项目成果

A methodological framework for determining an optimal coastal protection strategy against storm surges and sea level rise

确定针对风暴潮和海平面上升的最佳海岸保护策略的方法框架

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04661-5
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Miura, Yuki;Qureshi, Huda;Ryoo, Chanyang;Dinenis, Philip C.;Li, Jiao;Mandli, Kyle T.;Deodatis, George;Bienstock, Daniel;Lazrus, Heather;Morss, Rebecca
• 通讯作者: Morss, Rebecca

Optimization of Coastal Protections in the Presence of Climate Change

气候变化时优化海岸保护

• DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.613293
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Frontiers in Climate
• 作者: Miura, Yuki;Dinenis, Philip C.;Mandli, Kyle T.;Deodatis, George;Bienstock, Daniel
• 通讯作者: Bienstock, Daniel

High-Speed GIS-Based Simulation of Storm Surge–Induced Flooding Accounting for Sea Level Rise

基于 GIS 的风暴潮高速模拟 - 导致海平面上升的洪水核算

• DOI: 10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000465
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Natural Hazards Review
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Miura, Yuki;Mandli, Kyle T.;Deodatis, George
• 通讯作者: Deodatis, George