Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction

随着海冰的迅速融化，北极不仅在科学上，而且在社会经济和地缘政治上都变得越来越重要。早期的努力表明，有可能在从亚季节到年代际的时间尺度上预测北极的变化。然而，对北极天气和气候进行熟练的业务预测，需要我们在了解北极和低纬度地区之间的气候和极端天气之间的联系方面取得重大进展，随后，如何最好地表示预测系统中的相关机制。虽然低纬度海洋和大气的变化不可避免地影响北极，但这种相互作用确实是双向的，因为北极的变化也影响低纬度气候和天气，特别是中纬度极端天气事件。为了提高我们对动力学的基本理解、建模能力和预测技能，结合现有的观测和最先进的气候模型，该小组建议调查热带和中纬度海洋和大气对北极区域变化的驱动因素。他们还将调查北极对北半球气候变化和极端天气的影响。该团队将参与欧盟（EU）领导的国际多模式相互比较研究，即欧盟地平线2020计划下的蓝色行动项目。对北极-低纬度联系的更深入了解，以及我们预测北极和北半球变率的能力，与各种最终用户应用相关，如天气预报、渔业管理、商业航运、商业保险和海军作业。因此，该项目具有实质性的广泛影响。项目团队还将积极开展外展活动，通过网页、公开讲座、K-12学校参观、教师培训和本科生研究经验（REU）项目，传播研究成果并教育公众。该项目还将培养一名博士后科学家。

With the rapidly melting sea-ice, the Arctic is becoming increasingly important not only scientifically but also socioeconomically and geopolitically. Early efforts indicate that there is potential to predict Arctic variability on timescales ranging from subseasonal to decadal. However, skillful operational predictions of the Arctic weather and climate require major advances in our understanding of linkages in climate and weather extremes between the Arctic and lower-latitudes, and subsequently, how best to represent relevant mechanisms in prediction systems. While the changes in the lower-latitude ocean and atmosphere inevitably influence the Arctic, the interaction is truly two-way, in that changes in the Arctic also impact the lower-latitude climate and weather, in particular midlatitude extreme weather events. To improve our fundamental dynamical understanding, modeling capabilities, and prediction skill, using a combination of available observations and state-of-the-art climate models, the team proposes to investigate tropical and mid-latitude oceanic and atmospheric drivers of regional Arctic changes. They will also investigate the role of the Arctic on the Northern Hemisphere climate variability and weather extremes. The team will participate in the European Union (EU)-led international multi-model inter-comparison study, the Blue-Action Project under the EU Horizon 2020 Programme. A deeper understanding of Arctic-lower-latitude linkages, and our capacity for predicting Arctic and Northern Hemisphere variability is relevant to a wide variety of end-user applications, such as weather forecasting, fisheries management, commercial shipping, commercial insurance, and naval operations. Thus, this project has substantial broader impacts. The project team will also actively perform outreach activities to disseminate findings and to educate public through webpages, public lectures, K-12 school visits, teacher trainings, and Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) programs. A postdoctoral scientist will also be trained under this project.