INFEWS/T1: Intensification in the world's largest agricultural frontier: Integrating food production, water use, energy demand, and environmental integrity in a changing climate

INFEWS/T1：世界最大农业前沿的集约化：在气候变化中整合粮食生产、用水、能源需求和环境完整性

• 批准号: 1739724
• 负责人: Michael Coe
• 金额: $ 243.1万
• 依托单位: Woodwell Climate Research Center, Inc.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-15 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1739724&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: INFEWS; T1; Intensification; world; largest

During the last 20 years Brazil became a major producer and exporter of soybeans and corn mainly by expanding cropping into its Amazon rainforest and savanna woodlands. Brazil is now second only to the United States and its goal is to double agricultural production to meet increasing global demands. This project investigates how water and energy may be affected by, and potentially limit, further agricultural intensification. The project will consist of three main parts. The first part will be farm-scale field experiments to evaluate how more intensive crop management influences emissions of greenhouse gases from soils, water quality and habitats in streams, and demands for energy. The second part will investigate how the distributions of crops within this agricultural frontier region respond to farm management decisions, government policies, global greenhouse gas concentrations, and climate. The final part will use computer models to investigate the potential responses of the food production system, the water cycle, and energy use and demand to changing climate and different potential pathways of agricultural intensification. This proposal addresses the globally important issue of how to conserve the rich biodiversity of Amazon forests and Cerrado woodlands, maintain a stable climate, and contribute to global food security. It will provide new knowledge about the implications of the intensification of soybeans and other crops for regional climate, the quality of water and stream habitats in tropical watersheds, and energy production. Results will be transmitted to policymakers and producers in Brazil through direct communication with state and federal government agencies; a 10-week immersion Policy Lab in which US and Brazilian graduate students will use science from this project to create policy papers; and direct interactions with a major Brazilian soybean producing company to study crop management options.This project evaluates the tradeoffs inherent in balancing increased food production ? and its associated demands for water, energy, and land ? with the conservation of the Amazon and Cerrado environments of Brazil, the Earth?s largest remaining tropical forests and woodlands. The overarching question is whether this balance can be achieved through rapid and sustained intensification of food production on already cleared lands. Achieving this transition, while avoiding the environmental costs associated with intensive agriculture in other regions, and minimizing vulnerability to a changing climate, is one of the world?s greatest food, water, and energy challenges. This project will develop new understanding of how increased food production will impact and depend upon water, nutrient, and energy. It will advance the development of state-of-the art prognostic computational models of tropical meteorology, ecology, hydrology, and cropping to analyze the impacts of deforestation, agricultural intensification, and increasing greenhouse gasses on mesoscale convection, total and seasonal rainfall, land surface, forest health, and crop production temperature. It will lead to more accurate predictions of the downstream effects of intensive agriculture that will be relevant across tropical South America where the least information is available and greatest agricultural land transformations on Earth now occur. This project will contribute to the development of new fine-scale climate modeling and a tropical crop version of the Community Land Model 5, one of the most widely used land surface models. Data from this project will be made widely available using the cyberinfrastructure built by NSF and other federal agencies for sharing and moving large amounts of data. It will advance understanding of climatic thresholds for tropical crops, the vulnerability of crops to climate extremes, and how those will change in the future as cropping intensifies and expands.

在过去的20年里，巴西成为大豆和玉米的主要生产国和出口国，主要是通过将作物种植扩大到亚马逊雨林和热带稀树草原林地。巴西现在仅次于美国，其目标是将农业产量翻一番，以满足日益增长的全球需求。该项目研究水和能源如何可能受到影响，并可能限制，进一步农业集约化。该项目将包括三个主要部分。第一部分将是农场规模的田间试验，以评估更密集的作物管理如何影响土壤、水质和河流栖息地的温室气体排放以及能源需求。第二部分将调查这个农业前沿地区的作物分布如何响应农场管理决策，政府政策，全球温室气体浓度和气候。最后一部分将使用计算机模型来调查粮食生产系统、水循环、能源使用和需求对气候变化的潜在反应以及农业集约化的不同潜在途径。该提案涉及如何保护亚马逊森林和塞拉多林地丰富的生物多样性、维持稳定的气候和促进全球粮食安全的全球重要问题。它将提供有关大豆和其他作物集约化对区域气候，热带流域水和溪流栖息地质量以及能源生产的影响的新知识。研究结果将通过与州和联邦政府机构的直接沟通传达给巴西的决策者和生产者;为期10周的沉浸式政策实验室，美国和巴西的研究生将利用该项目的科学知识撰写政策文件;并与巴西一家主要大豆生产公司直接互动，研究作物管理方案。该项目评估平衡粮食产量增加所固有的权衡？及其对水、能源和土地的相关需求？保护巴西的亚马逊和塞拉多环境，地球？世界上现存最大的热带森林和林地。首要的问题是，能否通过在已清理的土地上迅速和持续地加强粮食生产来实现这一平衡。实现这一转变，同时避免与其他地区集约农业相关的环境成本，并最大限度地减少对气候变化的脆弱性，是世界之一？世界上最大的食物、水和能源挑战。该项目将对粮食产量的增加将如何影响和依赖于水、营养和能源产生新的认识。它将推进热带气象学，生态学，水文学和作物的最先进预测计算模型的发展，以分析森林砍伐，农业集约化和温室气体增加对中尺度对流，总降雨量和季节性降雨量，地表，森林健康和作物生产温度的影响。它将导致对集约农业的下游影响进行更准确的预测，这将与整个热带南美洲有关，那里的信息最少，而地球上的农业土地变化最大。该项目将有助于开发新的精细气候模型和社区土地模型5的热带作物版本，这是最广泛使用的陆地表面模型之一。该项目的数据将通过NSF和其他联邦机构为共享和移动大量数据而建立的网络基础设施广泛提供。它将促进对热带作物气候阈值的理解，作物对极端气候的脆弱性，以及随着种植的加强和扩大，这些将如何在未来发生变化。

项目成果

Land Use Change Influences Ecosystem Function in Headwater Streams of the Lowland Amazon Basin

• DOI: 10.3390/w13121667
• 发表时间: 2021-06-01
• 期刊: WATER
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Jankowski, Kathi Jo;Deegan, Linda A.;Macedo, Marcia N.
• 通讯作者: Macedo, Marcia N.

Trends in streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater storage across the Amazon Basin linked to changing precipitation and land cover

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100755
• 发表时间: 2020-12
• 期刊: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
• 作者: B. P. Heerspink;A. Kendall;M. Coe;D. Hyndman

Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01600-z
• 发表时间: 2023-02-06
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Uribe，Maria del Rosario;Coe，Michael T.;Brando，Paulo M.
• 通讯作者: Brando，Paulo M.

Intensification of fire regimes and forest loss in the Território Indígena do Xingu

辛古地区的火灾加剧和森林损失

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5713
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Silvério, Divino V;Oliveira, Robson Santana;Flores, Bernardo Monteiro;Brando, Paulo M;Almada, Hellen Kezia;Furtado, Marco Túlio;Moreira, Fabio Garcia;Heckenberger, Michael;Ono, Katia Yukari;Macedo, Marcia N
• 通讯作者: Macedo, Marcia N

Agricultural Expansion in Mato Grosso from 1986–2000: A Bayesian Time Series Approach to Tracking Past Land Cover Change

1986 年至 2000 年马托格罗索州的农业扩张：跟踪过去土地覆盖变化的贝叶斯时间序列方法

• DOI: 10.3390/rs12040688
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Remote Sensing
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Lee, Jacky;Cardille, Jeffrey A.;Coe, Michael T.
• 通讯作者: Coe, Michael T.