BE/CNH: Feedbacks Among Forestry, Agriculture, and Fire in Amazonia

BE/CNH：亚马逊流域林业、农业和火灾的反馈

• 批准号: 0410315
• 负责人: Michael Coe
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Woodwell Climate Research Center, Inc.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-10-01 至 2010-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0410315&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Feedbacks; Among; Forestry; Agriculture

As the rural economies of the Amazon Basin become tied to world markets, new pulses of logging and deforestation will follow. Potential consequences of this trend include a reduction of forest-dependent rainfall, the spread of savanna-like scrub vegetation, substantial losses of biodiversity, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Greater investments in governance of new highway corridors and the strengthening of forest-based economies could favor a more equitable and sustainable developmental pathway that maintains the forest ecosystem. Policy interventions that could foster this alternative pathway are poorly understood, however, in part because of the complex interactions among ecological, economic, and climatic systems operating across multiple scales spatial and temporal scales in the Amazon region. The interdisciplinary research project will develop quantitative, spatially explicit models of Amazon land-use change, fire, vegetation dynamics, and carbon flux for a major new highway corridor and for the entire basin. The ecosystem model will describe fire risk as a function of drought, land use, and disturbance history, and will be coupled to the economic models through land-use effects on the fire regime and through fire-risk effects on the behavior of land users. The ecosystem model will track vegetation structure and recovery with associated carbon pools to estimate the carbon fluxes and flammability associated with land-use scenarios. The economic models will first calculate the potential profitability of each pixel for competing agricultural and forestry land uses as a function of infrastructure and biophysical factors determined using satellite data and a large GIS database. Land uses that actually occupy each pixel will depend on population and urbanization variables that are captured within an econometric model of municipal-level census data and spatial associations that are represented within a cellular automata model. Ecological and economic modeling will be supported by field research already underway along two of the five major highway corridors that are being paved in Amazonia.The proposed research would develop the first spatially explicit simulation model for a tropical frontier region that integrates the rent-seeking behavior of land users with the ecological and climatic processes that shape this behavior. The model will be designed to assess the responses of regional economies and ecosystems to infrastructure investments, regulatory and fiscal interventions, macroeconomic factors, and climatic change, and may therefore increase the scientific quality of the region's policy-making process. This research provides the foundation for a program of interdisciplinary education that supports the training of at least 16 doctoral and 15 masters-level students. Interdisciplinary graduate field courses, a tri-lingual textbook, and an educational simulation model will be developed in collaboration with an NSF IGERT program. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

随着亚马逊盆地的农村经济与世界市场联系在一起，新的伐木和毁林浪潮将随之而来。 这一趋势的潜在后果包括依赖森林的降雨量减少、热带草原状灌木植被蔓延、生物多样性大量丧失以及温室气体排放增加。 增加对新公路走廊治理的投资和加强森林经济，可以促进更公平和可持续的发展道路，维护森林生态系统。 政策干预，可以促进这一替代途径知之甚少，但是，部分原因是复杂的相互作用，生态，经济和气候系统在多个尺度的空间和时间尺度在亚马逊地区。 该跨学科研究项目将为一条主要的新公路走廊和整个流域开发亚马逊土地利用变化、火灾、植被动态和碳通量的定量、空间明确模型。 生态系统模型将把火灾风险描述为干旱、土地使用和干扰历史的函数，并通过土地使用对火灾状况的影响和火灾风险对土地使用者行为的影响与经济模型相耦合。 该生态系统模型将跟踪植被结构和恢复情况以及相关的碳库，以估计与土地使用情景相关的碳通量和易燃性。 经济模型将首先计算每个像素在竞争性农业和林业土地使用方面的潜在利润，这是利用卫星数据和大型地理信息系统数据库确定的基础设施和生物物理因素的函数。 实际占用每个像素的土地使用将取决于人口和城市化变量，这些变量在一个计量经济学模型中捕获，该模型由一个元胞自动机模型表示。 生态和经济建模将得到实地研究的支持，实地研究已经沿着正在铺设的五条主要公路走廊中的沿着两条在Amazoni.The拟议中的研究将开发第一个空间明确的模拟模型的热带边境地区，整合土地使用者的寻租行为与生态和气候过程，塑造这种行为。 该模型将用于评估区域经济体和生态系统对基础设施投资、监管和财政干预、宏观经济因素和气候变化的反应，从而提高该区域决策过程的科学质量。 这项研究为跨学科教育计划提供了基础，该计划支持至少16名博士和15名硕士生的培训。 跨学科的研究生领域课程，三种语言的教科书，和教育模拟模型将与NSF IGERT计划合作开发。 该项目得到了2004财政年度环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的资助，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合的动力学。