Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes

合作研究：北极海冰变化：远程驱动因素和当地过程

• 批准号: 1744587
• 负责人: Axel Schweiger
• 金额: $ 34.61万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2023-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1744587&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Arctic; sea; ice

Arctic sea ice loss is an important concern for global society affecting both Arctic and global environments. At present, global climate models do a poor job of predicting recent observed declines in Arctic sea ice, and the causes of this discrepancy remain unclear. One interpretation is that models may not be sensitive enough to capture the response of sea ice to greenhouse warming. However, another possibility is that natural cycles have accelerated the recent Arctic sea ice loss. Solving this problem has important implications not only for the interpretation of recent Arctic climate change but also the future projection for the Arctic, including the question as to when we will see the first ice free summer in the Arctic. The study will conduct targeted simulations and place these simulations in the context of observations over the last 117 years. As a result, we expect to better understand how well models capture naturally occurring variations of the Arctic climate and sea ice, and how we can improve models to yield more confident predictions. In addition, the study will train a graduate student and a postdoctoral scientist in polar aspects of climate science and general climate modeling and will provide outreach activities targeting K-12 students and teachers in Santa Barbara. This project will help us understand and quantify how atmospheric circulation in the Arctic influences winds, cloudiness, water vapor, radiation and thereby sea ice variability. It will lead to better understanding of the relative contribution of forced and internal variaiblities in recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss. First, the investigators will use data assimilation techniques in a global earth system model and explore how tropical sea surface temperature contributes to the recent sea ice decline via teleconnections to the high latitudes. The investigators will then examine dynamical mechanisms that link Arctic circulation to remote drivers in the tropics and put circulation changes over the last 40 years into the context of longer centennial term changes. Finally, results will help evaluate model skill for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and determine whether the tropical drivers represent a main source of modeled internal variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北极海冰损失是全球社会关注的一个重要问题，影响到北极和全球环境。目前，全球气候模型在预测最近观测到的北极海冰减少方面做得很差，这种差异的原因仍然不清楚。一种解释是，模型可能不够敏感，无法捕捉海冰对温室效应的反应。然而，另一种可能性是自然循环加速了最近北极海冰的流失。解决这一问题不仅对解释最近的北极气候变化具有重要意义，而且对北极的未来预测也具有重要意义，包括我们何时将看到北极第一个无冰夏季的问题。该研究将进行有针对性的模拟，并将这些模拟置于过去117年的观测背景下。因此，我们希望更好地了解模型如何捕捉北极气候和海冰的自然变化，以及我们如何改进模型以产生更可靠的预测。此外，这项研究将培训一名研究生和一名博士后科学家，使他们了解气候科学和一般气候建模的极地方面，并将针对圣巴巴拉的K-12学生和教师开展外联活动。该项目将帮助我们了解和量化北极的大气环流如何影响风、云量、水蒸气、辐射，从而影响海冰的变化。它将导致更好地了解强迫和内部变量在最近北极变暖和海冰损失中的相对贡献。首先，研究人员将在全球地球系统模型中使用数据同化技术，并探索热带海洋表面温度如何通过与高纬度地区的遥相关来促进最近的海冰减少。然后，研究人员将研究将北极环流与热带地区的远程驱动因素联系起来的动力机制，并将过去40年的环流变化置于更长的百年变化背景下。最后，结果将有助于评估耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的模型技能，并确定热带驱动因素是否代表模拟内部variability.This奖项的主要来源反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

项目成果

Evidence for an increasing role of ocean heat in Arctic winter sea ice growth

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0848.1
• 发表时间: 2021-03
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: R. Ricker;F. Kauker;A. Schweiger;S. Hendricks;Jinlun Zhang;S. Paul

Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0256-8
• 发表时间: 2019-01-01
• 期刊: NATURE GEOSCIENCE
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: Ding, Qinghua;Schweiger, Axel;Baxter, Ian
• 通讯作者: Baxter, Ian

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Earth System Science Data
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: K. Schuckmann;Audrey Minère;Flora Gues;3. FranciscoJoséCuesta;Valero;G. Kirchengast;S. Adusumilli;F. Straneo;R. Allan;M. Barker;H. Beltrami;T. Boyer;Lijing Cheng;J. Church;5. Damien;Desbruyères;H. Dolman;C. Domingues;A. García‐García;6. Donata;Giglio;J. Gilson;M. Gorfer;L. Haimberger;S. Hendricks;S. Hosoda;G. Johnson;R. Killick;Brian King;N. Kolodziejczyk;A. Korosov;G. Krinner;Mikael Kuusela;M. Langer;T. Lavergne;Isobel R. Lawrence;Yuehua Li;J. Lyman;B. Marzeion;M. Mayer;10 AndrewH.;MacDougall;T. McDougall;D. Monselesan;Jan Nitzbon;Inès N. Otosaka;Jian Peng;S. Purkey;D. Roemmich;Kanako Sato;Katsunari Sato;12 Abhishek;Savita;A. Schweiger;A. Shepherd;S. Seneviratne;L. Simons;A. Slater;T. Slater;Noah A. Smith;A. Steiner;T. Suga;T. Szekely;W. Thiery;M. Timmermans;Inne Vanderkelen;Susan E. Wjiffels;15 Tonghua;Wu;M. Zemp

Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?

地球系统中储存的热量：能量去了哪里？

• DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Earth System Science Data
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: von Schuckmann, Karina;Cheng, Lijing;Palmer, Matthew D.;Hansen, James;Tassone, Caterina;Aich, Valentin;Adusumilli, Susheel;Beltrami, Hugo;Boyer, Tim;Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José
• 通讯作者: Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José

Nudging observed winds in the Arctic to quantify associated sea ice loss from 1979 to 2020

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0893.1
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Q. Ding;A. Schweiger;Ian Baxter