Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes

合作研究：北极海冰变化：远程驱动因素和当地过程

• 批准号: 1744598
• 负责人: Qinghua Ding
• 金额: $ 34.16万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2022-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1744598&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Arctic; sea; ice

Arctic sea ice loss is an important concern for global society affecting both Arctic and global environments. At present, global climate models do a poor job of predicting recent observed declines in Arctic sea ice, and the causes of this discrepancy remain unclear. One interpretation is that models may not be sensitive enough to capture the response of sea ice to greenhouse warming. However, another possibility is that natural cycles have accelerated the recent Arctic sea ice loss. Solving this problem has important implications not only for the interpretation of recent Arctic climate change but also the future projection for the Arctic, including the question as to when we will see the first ice free summer in the Arctic. The study will conduct targeted simulations and place these simulations in the context of observations over the last 117 years. As a result, we expect to better understand how well models capture naturally occurring variations of the Arctic climate and sea ice, and how we can improve models to yield more confident predictions. In addition, the study will train a graduate student and a postdoctoral scientist in polar aspects of climate science and general climate modeling and will provide outreach activities targeting K-12 students and teachers in Santa Barbara. This project will help us understand and quantify how atmospheric circulation in the Arctic influences winds, cloudiness, water vapor, radiation and thereby sea ice variability. It will lead to better understanding of the relative contribution of forced and internal variaiblities in recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss. First, the investigators will use data assimilation techniques in a global earth system model and explore how tropical sea surface temperature contributes to the recent sea ice decline via teleconnections to the high latitudes. The investigators will then examine dynamical mechanisms that link Arctic circulation to remote drivers in the tropics and put circulation changes over the last 40 years into the context of longer centennial term changes. Finally, results will help evaluate model skill for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and determine whether the tropical drivers represent a main source of modeled internal variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北冰洋海冰融化是全球社会关注的重要问题，对北极和全球环境都有影响。目前，全球气候模型在预测最近观测到的北极海冰减少方面做得很差，这种差异的原因尚不清楚。一种解释是，模型可能不够敏感，无法捕捉到海冰对温室效应的反应。然而，另一种可能性是，自然循环加速了最近北冰洋海冰的消失。解决这一问题不仅对解释最近的北极气候变化具有重要意义，而且对北极的未来预测也具有重要意义，包括我们何时将在北极看到第一个无冰夏季的问题。这项研究将进行有针对性的模拟，并将这些模拟置于过去117年的观察背景下。因此，我们希望更好地理解模型如何更好地捕捉北极气候和海冰的自然变化，以及我们如何改进模型以产生更有信心的预测。此外，该研究将培训一名研究生和一名博士后科学家，了解气候科学的极地方面和一般气候建模，并将在圣巴巴拉提供针对K-12学生和教师的外联活动。这个项目将帮助我们了解和量化北极的大气环流如何影响风、云量、水蒸气、辐射，从而影响海冰的可变性。这将有助于更好地理解强迫变化和内部变化在近期北极变暖和海冰减少中的相对贡献。首先，研究人员将在全球地球系统模式中使用数据同化技术，并探索热带海面温度如何通过与高纬度的遥相关来促进最近的海冰下降。然后，研究人员将研究将北极环流与热带偏远驱动因素联系起来的动力机制，并将过去40年的环流变化置于更长百年长期变化的背景下。最后，结果将有助于评估耦合模式比较项目第五阶段(CMIP5)的模式技能，并确定热带驱动因素是否代表模拟内部可变性的主要来源。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Summertime atmosphere–sea ice coupling in the Arctic simulated by CMIP5/6 models: Importance of large-scale circulation

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05543-5
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Rui Luo;Q. Ding;Zhiwei Wu;Ian Baxter;M. Bushuk;Yiyi Huang;Xiquan Dong

Increasing confidence in projecting the Arctic ice-free year with emergent constraints

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0b17
• 发表时间: 2021-06
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Bin Wang;Xiao Zhou;Q. Ding;Jiping Liu

Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0256-8
• 发表时间: 2019-01-01
• 期刊: NATURE GEOSCIENCE
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: Ding, Qinghua;Schweiger, Axel;Baxter, Ian
• 通讯作者: Baxter, Ian

Tropical and Midlatitude Impact on Seasonal Polar Predictability in the Community Earth System Model

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0088.1
• 发表时间: 2019-08
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: E. Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth;Q. Ding

Nudging observed winds in the Arctic to quantify associated sea ice loss from 1979 to 2020

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0893.1
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Q. Ding;A. Schweiger;Ian Baxter