Collaborative Research: Do Ocean Wave Impacts Pose a Hazard to the Stability of West Antarctic Ice Shelves?

了解并能够更可靠地预测南极洲的冰块质量损失是南极科学的关键研究重点。巨大的冰架支撑着海洋冰川的终结，减缓了陆地冰到达海洋的速度，进而抑制了海平面上升的速度。到目前为止，大多数工作都集中在气温和水温升高带来的破坏稳定的影响上，这会导致融化，从而使冰架变薄并变弱。然而，最近的发现表明，海冰并没有像之前认为的那样保护冰架免受海浪冲击，这增加了海啸和其他海浪可能影响大陆架稳定性的可能性。该项目将通过开发模型来研究海浪冲击如何破坏冰架，从而评估海啸的影响以及由于气候驱动的风暴模式变化和海冰面积减少而引起的海浪活动加剧造成的大陆架破裂增加的可能性。建模工作将允许对大冰架和小冰架进行区域比较，并评估气候变化和风暴模式对冰架、冰盖、冰川以及最终海平面上升的影响。该项目将对研究生进行数学建模和跨学科的地球和海洋科学方法培训。该项目采用四管齐下的方法来估计海啸、超长周期、超重力和风暴驱动的海浪对接地带冰架的振动的影响。首先，该团队将使用高分辨率海啸模型来调查南极西部海岸冰架对源自太平洋不同地区的海浪的反应。其次，它将比较窄冰架和宽冰架对海浪冲击接地区域的反应。第三，它将通过对天气和海浪模型数据的重新分析来评估风暴强迫造成的暴露风险；最后，该小组将对海浪引起的振动在冰层中从陆架前缘传播到接地带和穿过接地带的传播进行建模。总而言之，该项目旨在确定南极海岸受加强的、以水深测量为重点的长周期海浪影响的地点。海浪冲击和气候之间的联系源于货架前海冰范围的潜在变化，以及风暴的规模、频率和轨迹的变化。了解海浪和气候对冰架完整性的影响，对于预测它们对海平面上升幅度和时间的影响至关重要。海浪驱动的冰架稳定性下降可能会加剧冰架破碎和冰山崩解，减少冰架支撑，最终加速海平面上升。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Understanding and being able to more reliably forecast ice mass loss from Antarctica is a critical research priority for Antarctic Science. Massive ice shelves buttress marine terminating glaciers, slowing the rate that land ice reaches the sea and, in turn, restraining the rate of sea level rise. To date, most work has focused on the destabilizing impacts of warmer air and water temperatures, resulting in melting that thins and weakens ice shelves. However, recent findings indicate that sea ice does not protect ice shelves from wave impacts as much as previously thought, which has raised the possibility that tsunamis and other ocean waves could affect shelf stability. This project will assess the potential for increased shelf fracturing from the impact of tsunamis and from heightened wave activity due to climate-driven changes in storm patterns and reduced sea-ice extent by developing models to investigate how wave impacts damage ice shelves. The modeling effort will allow for regional comparisons between large and small ice shelves, and provide an evaluation of the impacts of changing climate and storm patterns on ice shelves, ice sheets, glaciers, and, ultimately, sea level rise. This project will train graduate students in mathematical modeling and interdisciplinary approaches to Earth and ocean sciences.This project takes a four-pronged approach to estimating the impact of vibrations on ice shelves at the grounding zone due to tsunamis, very long period, infragravity, and storm-driven waves. First, the team will use high-resolution tsunami modeling to investigate the response of ice shelves along the West Antarctic coast to waves originating in different regions of the Pacific Ocean. Second, it will compare the response to wave impacts on grounding zones of narrow and wide ice shelves. Third, it will assess the exposure risk due to storm forcing through a reanalysis of weather and wave model data; and, finally, the team will model the propagation of ocean-wave-induced vibrations in the ice from the shelf front to and across the grounding zone. In combination, this project aims to identify locations along the Antarctic coast that are subject to enhanced, bathymetrically-focused, long-period ocean-wave impacts. Linkages between wave impacts and climate arise from potential changes in sea-ice extent in front of shelves, and changes in the magnitude, frequency, and tracks of storms. Understanding the effects of ocean waves and climate on ice-shelf integrity is critical to anticipate their contribution to the amplitude and timing of sea-level rise. Wave-driven reductions in ice-shelf stability may enhance shelf fragmentation and iceberg calving, reducing ice shelf buttressing and eventually accelerating sea-level rise.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.