Collaborative Research: Do Ocean Wave Impacts Pose a Hazard to the Stability of West Antarctic Ice Shelves?

了解并能够更可靠地预测南极洲的冰量损失是南极科学的一个重要研究重点。巨大的冰架支撑着海洋终止冰川，减缓了陆地冰到达海洋的速度，反过来又抑制了海平面上升的速度。到目前为止，大多数工作都集中在温暖的空气和水温的不稳定影响上，导致融化，使冰架变薄和变弱。然而，最近的研究结果表明，海冰并不像以前认为的那样保护冰架免受波浪的影响，这增加了海啸和其他海浪可能影响冰架稳定性的可能性。该项目将通过开发模型来调查波浪冲击如何破坏冰架，评估海啸影响和由于气候驱动的风暴模式变化和海冰范围减少而引起的波浪活动增加造成冰架断裂的可能性。建模工作将允许在大型和小型冰架之间进行区域比较，并评估气候变化和风暴模式对冰架，冰盖，冰川以及最终海平面上升的影响。该项目将培养研究生数学建模和地球与海洋科学的跨学科方法。该项目采取四管齐下的方法来估计海啸、长周期、亚重力和风暴驱动波引起的振动对接地区冰架的影响。首先，研究小组将使用高分辨率海啸模型来调查南极西海岸沿着冰架对源自太平洋不同地区的海浪的反应。其次，将比较波浪对窄冰架和宽冰架接地区的影响。第三，它将通过对天气和波浪模型数据的重新分析来评估风暴强迫造成的暴露风险;最后，该小组将模拟海浪引起的振动在冰中从大陆架前部到接地区的传播。这一项目的目的是确定南极海岸沿着受到增强的、以测深为重点的长期海浪影响的地点。波浪影响和气候之间的联系来自于冰架前海冰范围的潜在变化，以及风暴强度、频率和路径的变化。了解海浪和气候对冰架完整性的影响对于预测它们对海平面上升幅度和时间的贡献至关重要。波浪驱动的冰架稳定性降低可能会增加冰架破碎和冰山崩解，减少冰架支撑并最终加速海平面上升。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Understanding and being able to more reliably forecast ice mass loss from Antarctica is a critical research priority for Antarctic Science. Massive ice shelves buttress marine terminating glaciers, slowing the rate that land ice reaches the sea and, in turn, restraining the rate of sea level rise. To date, most work has focused on the destabilizing impacts of warmer air and water temperatures, resulting in melting that thins and weakens ice shelves. However, recent findings indicate that sea ice does not protect ice shelves from wave impacts as much as previously thought, which has raised the possibility that tsunamis and other ocean waves could affect shelf stability. This project will assess the potential for increased shelf fracturing from the impact of tsunamis and from heightened wave activity due to climate-driven changes in storm patterns and reduced sea-ice extent by developing models to investigate how wave impacts damage ice shelves. The modeling effort will allow for regional comparisons between large and small ice shelves, and provide an evaluation of the impacts of changing climate and storm patterns on ice shelves, ice sheets, glaciers, and, ultimately, sea level rise. This project will train graduate students in mathematical modeling and interdisciplinary approaches to Earth and ocean sciences.This project takes a four-pronged approach to estimating the impact of vibrations on ice shelves at the grounding zone due to tsunamis, very long period, infragravity, and storm-driven waves. First, the team will use high-resolution tsunami modeling to investigate the response of ice shelves along the West Antarctic coast to waves originating in different regions of the Pacific Ocean. Second, it will compare the response to wave impacts on grounding zones of narrow and wide ice shelves. Third, it will assess the exposure risk due to storm forcing through a reanalysis of weather and wave model data; and, finally, the team will model the propagation of ocean-wave-induced vibrations in the ice from the shelf front to and across the grounding zone. In combination, this project aims to identify locations along the Antarctic coast that are subject to enhanced, bathymetrically-focused, long-period ocean-wave impacts. Linkages between wave impacts and climate arise from potential changes in sea-ice extent in front of shelves, and changes in the magnitude, frequency, and tracks of storms. Understanding the effects of ocean waves and climate on ice-shelf integrity is critical to anticipate their contribution to the amplitude and timing of sea-level rise. Wave-driven reductions in ice-shelf stability may enhance shelf fragmentation and iceberg calving, reducing ice shelf buttressing and eventually accelerating sea-level rise.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.