Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Popular Roots of Counterrevolution

博士论文研究：反革命的流行根源

• 批准号: 1747405
• 负责人: Mark Beissinger
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-15 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1747405&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Popular; Roots

This project considers the phenomenon of counterrevolution, examining how counterrevolutionary challenges typically emerge and when they are most likely to succeed in toppling a new revolutionary regime. Counterrevolutions represent tremendously consequential political events; yet, as scholars are increasingly recognizing, they have seldom been considered systematically in rigorous social scientific accounts. This project therefore stands to make a substantial contribution by developing and testing a theory of counterrevolution. It will draw on cross-national data from the full universe of revolutions in the 20th and 21st centuries, as well as interview and protest data from the case of Egypt, which experienced a political revolution in 2011 and a counterrevolution in 2013. Moreover, the project will generate several broader impacts. First, it will build practical and actionable knowledge to help policymakers in supporting peaceful transitions to democracy following revolutions and preventing nascent democratic projects from being cut short by counterrevolutions. Second, it will develop new resources and capacity for quantitative empirical research on the Arab World, including by training two Arab research assistants in rigorous data collection methods and by building a dataset of contentious events in Egypt. Third, it will facilitate dialogue between Egypt's polarized political factions, helping to build a foundation on which political reconciliation and a more stable and inclusive governance system in Egypt might be achieved.This project will address two questions: Under what conditions do revolutionary regimes come to be challenged by counterrevolutions? And when do such counterrevolutionary challenges succeed? A counterrevolution is defined as an effort in the aftermath of a successful revolution to restore a version of the pre-revolutionary political regime. Contrary to existing accounts of counterrevolution, which focus on the unilateral actions of elites from the old regime, this dissertation proposes that overthrowing revolution requires a popular base. Specifically, it is argued that successful counterrevolutions are brought about by a coalition of coercive forces from the old regime and disaffected reformists in the revolutionary coalition itself, with the support of broad segments of society whose members grow weary of revolutionary change. The research leverages quantitative and qualitative research strategies at both the cross-national and sub-national level. It first considers the case of Egypt, which experienced a political revolution in 2011 and a counterrevolution in 2013. Using qualitative process tracing of interview data and quantitative analysis of protest events in the year preceding the counterrevolution, it examines the processes and mechanisms that brought about counterrevolution in this paradigmatic case. The case-specific research will be complemented with analysis of a quantitative dataset that documents which successful revolutions through the 20th and 21st centuries were challenged and overthrown by counterrevolutions. Finally, several shadow cases of successful and unsuccessful counterrevolution will be examined.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这个项目考虑反革命现象，研究反革命挑战通常是如何出现的，以及它们最有可能在什么时候成功推翻一个新的革命政权。反革命代表着极其重大的政治事件；然而，正如学者们越来越多地认识到的那样，它们很少被系统地考虑到严格的社会科学描述中。因此，这个项目将通过发展和检验反革命理论来做出重大贡献。它将利用20世纪和21世纪整个革命的跨国数据，以及埃及的采访和抗议数据，埃及在2011年经历了一场政治革命，在2013年经历了一场反革命。此外，该项目将产生几个更广泛的影响。首先，它将建立实用和可操作的知识，以帮助政策制定者支持革命后向民主的和平过渡，并防止新生的民主项目被反革命打断。第二，它将为阿拉伯世界的定量实证研究开发新的资源和能力，包括培训两名阿拉伯研究助理掌握严格的数据收集方法，并建立埃及有争议事件的数据库。第三，它将促进埃及两极分化的政治派别之间的对话，帮助建立一个基础，在此基础上可能实现埃及的政治和解和更稳定和更具包容性的治理体系。该项目将解决两个问题：革命政权在什么条件下会受到反革命的挑战？这样的反革命挑战什么时候会成功？反革命的定义是，在一场成功的革命之后，努力恢复革命前的政治制度。与现有的关于反革命的描述集中在旧政权精英的单方面行动相反，本文提出推翻革命需要人民的基础。具体地说，人们认为，成功的反革命是由旧政权的胁迫力量和革命联盟本身中心怀不满的改革派组成的联盟，并得到社会广泛阶层的支持，这些社会阶层的成员逐渐厌倦了革命性的变化。这项研究利用了跨国家和国家以下两级的定量和定性研究战略。它首先考虑了埃及的情况，埃及在2011年经历了一场政治革命，在2013年经历了一场反革命。通过对访谈数据的定性过程追踪和对反革命前一年抗议事件的定量分析，考察了在这一典型案例中导致反革命的过程和机制。这项针对具体案例的研究将辅以对量化数据集的分析，该数据集记录了20世纪和21世纪哪些成功的革命受到反革命的挑战和推翻。最后，我们将考察几个反革命成功和失败的影子案例。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。