The Effects of Moving to Opportunity on Youth Political Behavior

政治学中最重要的发现之一是，经济上处于不利地位的人投票的可能性要小得多，政策对他们的反应也要小得多。然而，研究人员并不知道劣势是否真的会导致较低的政治参与度，或者为什么会这样。此外，人们对如何打破贫穷和低参与率的恶性循环知之甚少。拟议的研究使用移动机会（MTO）计划来测试打破循环的潜在干预措施。市交通局随机向低收入家庭发放住房券，供其在低贫困社区的私人住房市场使用。通过将这些家庭转移到不那么贫困的社区，代金券有望改善他们的经济状况。不幸的是，代金券并没有对成年人起到这样的作用。由于未能提高教育和收入——这些被认为是促进投票的因素——MTO计划也未能提高投票率也就不足为奇了。然而，MTO项目确实改善了那些儿童的经济状况。随着孩子们长大，他们接受了更多的教育，获得了更高的收入。这与其他关于早期生活经历的长期影响的发现是一致的。如果教育和收入确实是投票的原因，那么低贫困券应该大大提高儿童成年后对政治进程的参与。MTO的数据将与人口普查区和公共选民档案数据合并，以评估儿童的劣势是否会使他们在以后的生活中成为公民的贡献者。这一研究设计首次考察了贫困对政治参与的长期影响。这也是早期接触干预措施的第一个测试，这些干预措施可能会增加经济上处于不利地位的美国人在民主进程中的参与。受教育程度和收入水平较低的人投票的可能性要小得多，公共政策对他们的反应也要小得多。然而，尽管这种关联是政治学中最有力和理论化的发现之一，但它几乎完全基于观察数据。此外，这种关联的机制仍不清楚。最后，当涉及到生命早期经历的贫困的长期影响时，研究人员所知道的就更少了，因为追踪个人从童年到成年的数据很少。此外，对于哪些干预措施可能打破贫困和低参与率的循环，以及这些干预措施是否在生命早期更有效，人们知之甚少。提出的研究使用移动到机会（MTO）实验来测试贫困对政治参与的因果影响。市建局向居住在公共住房的低收入家庭随机发放住房券，供其在低贫困社区的私人住房市场使用。它改善了那些儿童长大成人后的经济状况。这与其他关于早期生活经历的长期影响的发现是一致的。在这一框架的基础上，预计低贫困住房券将大大改善儿童成年后对政治进程的参与。改善儿童的劣势可以通过以下几个途径增加投票率：改善他们的资源（收入、教育）；增加他们对投票更普遍的社交网络的访问；并改善他们对集体问题难以解决的看法。MTO的行政和调查数据将与人口普查区和选民档案数据合并。这一研究设计首次考察了贫困对政治参与的长期影响。这也是第一次对早期和晚期儿童接触干预措施的比较，这些干预措施可能会增加经济上处于不利地位的美国人在民主进程中的参与。拟议中的研究通过超越同时代的解释，关注可能对行为产生持久影响的早期生活经历，推动了政治学的发展。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

One of the most important findings in political science is that economically disadvantaged people are much less likely to vote, and policy is much less responsive to them. However, researchers do not know if disadvantage actually causes lower political participation, or why it does. Moreover, little is known about how to break the cycle of poverty and low participation. The proposed research uses the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) program to test potential interventions to break the cycle. MTO randomly assigned housing vouchers to low-income families for use in the private housing market in low-poverty neighborhoods. By moving these families to less distressed neighborhoods, the vouchers were expected to improve their economic situation. Unfortunately, the vouchers failed to do so for the adults. In failing to increase education and income -factors thought to promote voting - it is not surprising that the MTO program also failed to increase voting. However, the MTO program did improve the economic situation of those who were children. As they grew up, the children completed more education and earned higher incomes. This is consistent with other findings on the powerful long-term impact of early-life experiences. If education and income are indeed causes of voting, then the low-poverty vouchers should have substantially improved the children's participation in the political process as they came of age. Data from MTO will be merged with census tract and public voter file data, to assess whether blunting children's disadvantage allows them to become civic contributors later in life. This research design allows the first examination of the long-term impacts of poverty on political participation. It is also the first test of early exposure to interventions that may increase the participation of economically disadvantaged Americans in the democratic process. Individuals with low levels of education and income are much less likely to vote, and public policy is much less responsive to them. However, while this association is among the most robust and theorized findings in political science, it is based almost entirely on observational data. In addition, the mechanisms for the association remain unclear. Finally, when it comes to the long-term impact of poverty experienced early in life, researchers know still less, because data tracking individuals from childhood into adulthood has been scarce. Moreover, little is known about what interventions might break the cycle of poverty and low participation, and whether these are more effective early in life. The proposed research uses the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment to test the causal effects of poverty on political participation. MTO randomly assigned housing vouchers to low-income families living in public housing for use in the private housing market in low-poverty neighborhoods. It improved the economic situation of those who were children, as they became adults. This is consistent with other findings on the powerful long-term impact of early-life experiences. Building on this framework, low-poverty housing vouchers are expected to substantially improve children's participation in the political process as they come of age. Ameliorating children's disadvantage may increase voting through several pathways: improving their resources (income, education); increasing their access to social networks where voting is more common; and ameliorating their perception that collective problems are intractable. MTO administrative and survey data will be merged with census tract and voter file data. This research design allows the first examination of the long-term impacts of poverty on political participation. It is also the first comparison of early- versus late-childhood exposure to interventions that may later increase the participation of economically disadvantaged Americans in the democratic process. The proposed research advances political science by looking beyond contemporaneous explanations and focusing on early-life experiences that can have a lasting impact on behavior.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.