Testing Unpredictability with Multiple Worlds

用多个世界测试不可预测性

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1756822
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2018-07-01 至 2021-06-30
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

This project uses a "multiple worlds" experimental paradigm to test the prediction that divisions of opinion between political or demographic groups may be arbitrary and unpredictable as cultural fads have been shown to be. Recent research shows that the popularity of cultural artifacts, such as books, music, and movies, may be contingent on initial opinions. These are often arbitrary and unpredictable, yet subsequently can drive huge opinion cascades. A similar dynamic may explain the divisions that emerge between political partisans or demographic groups (e.g. young and old, men and women). That is, when an initial group of visible partisans disagree, subsequent opinion generators from each side may take this a cue to how they should act, furthering the divide between the groups in a cascading fashion. Findings will serve the national welfare by shedding light on arbitrary social processes that may amplify societal discord and so offering the possibility of ameliorating their effects.The hypothesis of this project is that division between groups can be driven by a dynamic similar to that found by Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006) in their investigation of the fickleness of cultural success. They created an experimental music download site, with multiple worlds in which users could only see the downloads of those in their same experimental world. Findings were that the opinions converged more in the worlds where users could see the activity of others around them. To test the hypothesis of this project, a website will be created where experiment participants will be asked to register their political and demographic affiliations. They then will be divided into different experimental worlds, including one independent world (a control). In all worlds, users will vote on various issues. In experimental conditions, users will be able to see the opinions for all in-group and out-group members in their world. By contrast, those in the control condition will vote without seeing other people's opinions. The prediction to be tested is that initial opinion differences between groups will be arbitrary, such that the direction of the association between opinions and groups will vary between worlds, but that the group influence will amplify these differences, leading variations to be stronger than expected by chance.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
这个项目使用了一个“多世界”的实验范式来测试预测,即政治或人口群体之间的意见分歧可能是任意的和不可预测的文化时尚已经被证明是。最近的研究表明,书籍、音乐和电影等文化产物的受欢迎程度可能取决于最初的看法。 这些往往是任意和不可预测的,但随后可以驱动巨大的意见级联。类似的动态可以解释政治党派或人口群体(例如年轻人和老年人、男子和妇女)之间出现的分歧。也就是说,当最初一群明显的党派人士不同意时,来自每一方的后续意见产生者可能会以此为线索,告诉他们应该如何行动,以级联的方式进一步加深群体之间的分歧。研究结果将通过揭示可能放大社会不和谐的任意社会过程,从而提供改善其影响的可能性,为国家福利服务。本项目的假设是,群体之间的分裂可能是由一种动力驱动的,类似于Salganik,Dodds,and Watts(2006)在他们对文化成功的变化无常的调查中发现的动力。 他们创建了一个实验性的音乐下载网站,其中有多个世界,用户只能看到同一个实验世界中的音乐下载。 结果发现,在用户可以看到周围其他人活动的世界中,意见更加集中。 为了验证这个项目的假设,将创建一个网站,要求实验参与者注册他们的政治和人口背景。然后,他们将被分成不同的实验世界,包括一个独立的世界(控制)。在所有世界中,用户将对各种问题进行投票。在实验条件下,用户将能够看到他们世界中所有组内和组外成员的意见。相比之下,那些处于控制状态的人会在没有看到其他人意见的情况下投票。有待检验的预测是,群体之间最初的意见差异将是任意的,因此意见和群体之间的联系方向将在不同世界之间变化,但群体影响将放大这些差异,该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值进行评估来支持和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(1)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Opinion cascades and the unpredictability of partisan polarization
  • DOI:
    10.1126/sciadv.aax0754
  • 发表时间:
    2019-08-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    13.6
  • 作者:
    Macy, Michael;Deri, Sebastian;Tong, Natalie
  • 通讯作者:
    Tong, Natalie
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Michael Macy其他文献

Optimal Parochialism: The Dynamics of Trust and Exclusion in Networks
最优狭隘主义:网络中信任与排斥的动态
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Samuel Bowles;Herbert Gintis;Katherine Baird;Roland Bénabou;Robert Boyd;Colin F. Camerer;Jeffrey Car;Vincent Crawford;Steven Durlauf;Marcus Feldman;Edward Glaeser;Avner Greif;D. Laibson;Michael Macy;Paul Malherbe;Jane Mansbridge;Corinna M. Noelke;Paul Romer;Martin Weitzman
  • 通讯作者:
    Martin Weitzman
Bots as Virtual Confederates: Design and Ethics
作为虚拟联盟的机器人:设计与道德
Estimating Homophily in Social Networks Using Dyadic Predictions
使用二元预测估计社交网络中的同质性
  • DOI:
    10.15195/v8.a14
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.8
  • 作者:
    George Berry;Antonio D. Sirianni;Ingmar Weber;Jisun An;Michael Macy
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Macy
信頼と協力に関する日米行動比較 : シグナルとしての信頼行動
日美信任与合作行为比较:信任行为作为信号
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2004
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    真島理恵;山岸俊男;Michael Macy
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Macy

Michael Macy的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Michael Macy', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: HNDS-R: Polarization, Information Integrity, and Diffusion
合作研究:HNDS-R:极化、信息完整性和扩散
  • 批准号:
    2242073
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Friendship Networks and Socioeconomic Outcomes
友谊网络和社会经济成果
  • 批准号:
    2049207
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Doctoral Dissertation Research: Public Beliefs and Responses to Industrial Sites
博士论文研究:公众信念和对工业场地的反应
  • 批准号:
    1602248
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Strength of Long Ties
博士论文研究:长期关系的力量
  • 批准号:
    1434164
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Doctoral Dissertation Research: Examining Social Clustering and Division via Patterns of Purchasing and Reviewing
博士论文研究:通过购买和审查模式审视社会集群和分裂
  • 批准号:
    1409593
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: A New Infrastructure for Monitoring Social Class Networks
合作研究:监控社会阶层网络的新基础设施
  • 批准号:
    1357442
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Generalized Reciprocity: Can Generosity Become Contagious?
广义互惠:慷慨可以传染吗?
  • 批准号:
    1260348
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Dissertation Research: Generalized Reciprocity: Understanding the Social Contagion of Altruistic Behavior
论文研究:广义互惠:理解利他行为的社会传染
  • 批准号:
    1303526
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Comparative Network Analysis: Mapping Global Social Interactions
比较网络分析:绘制全球社交互动图
  • 批准号:
    1226483
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Doctoral Dissertation Research: Reciprocity and Perceived Sincerity in Organizational Workgroups
博士论文研究:组织工作组中的互惠和感知诚意
  • 批准号:
    1030528
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.5万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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早期生活的不可预测性对奖励处理、学习和记忆的影响
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