Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets

耐用消费品市场的信用冲击和均衡动态

• 批准号: 1756992
• 负责人: Andrea Lanteri
• 金额: $ 28万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-08-15 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1756992&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Credit; Shocks; Equilibrium; Dynamics; Consumer

This project looks at one specific consumer durable, automobiles, and considers the role U.S. automobile markets played in the Great Recession. The PI and his research collaborator will use data on the price of both new and used cars. Previous work on the effects of macroeconomic changes on vehicle purchases has not fully considered how used vehicle purchases affect the market. This research incorporates the effects of used car markets on the macroeconomy in an innovative way. If a financial crisis makes it hard to borrow money, some lower-income households will choose to continue driving old vehicles rather than replacing their old automobiles with newer 'intermediate-age' used vehicles. This in turn means that demand for these intermediate used vehicles drops, and so the market value of used cars decreases. This decrease has a further effect on the market for new cars. Higher-income consumers now know they will get less from a trade-in of their current vehicle; in result, some of them delay new car purchases. The decrease in new car purchases has effects on the entire macroeconomy. The project will build a model of how these factors contributed to the Great Recession. The model can also be used to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of programs designed to stimulate demand for new cars. As a result, the research funded by this award will contribute to better U.S. economic policy and a stronger U.S. economy.The project studies the role of equilibrium dynamics in secondary markets for the behavior of purchases of new consumer durable goods in response to macroeconomic shocks. The specific focus is the effects of credit crises on car markets, and the research team will use a rich micro dataset on prices of new and used vehicles in the U.S. around the Great Recession with a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households. The projects thus contributes to our understanding of linkages between the microeconomic decisions of heterogeneous households and observed aggregate dynamics via general equilibrium effects.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这个项目着眼于一个特定的耐用消费品，汽车，并考虑美国汽车市场在大衰退中发挥的作用。PI和他的研究合作者将使用新车和二手汽车的价格数据。以前关于宏观经济变化对汽车购买的影响的工作没有充分考虑二手车购买如何影响市场。这项研究以创新的方式纳入了二手车市场对宏观经济的影响。如果金融危机导致贷款困难，一些低收入家庭将选择继续驾驶旧车，而不是用更新的“中级”二手车取代旧车。这反过来意味着对这些中级二手车的需求下降，因此二手汽车的市场价值下降。这种下降对新汽车市场有进一步的影响。高收入消费者现在知道，他们将从现有车辆的折价交易中获得更少的收益;因此，他们中的一些人推迟了新车购买。新车购买量的减少对整个宏观经济都有影响。该项目将建立一个模型，说明这些因素如何导致大衰退。该模型也可用于评估旨在刺激新汽车需求的计划的宏观经济效果。因此，该研究项目将为完善美国经济政策和增强美国经济做出贡献。该项目研究了二级市场的均衡动态对购买新耐用消费品的行为的作用，以应对宏观经济冲击。具体重点是信贷危机对汽车市场的影响，研究团队将使用关于大衰退前后美国新车和二手车价格的丰富微观数据集，并使用具有异质家庭的定量一般均衡模型。因此，这些项目有助于我们理解异质家庭的微观经济决策与通过一般均衡效应观察到的总体动态之间的联系。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的评估被认为值得支持影响审查标准。

项目成果

Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets

耐用消费品市场的信用冲击和均衡动态

• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdab004
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The Review of Economic Studies
• 作者: Gavazza, Alessandro;Lanteri, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Lanteri, Andrea