RUI: Comparing Age Selectivity in Modern Extinctions and the Fossil Record

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The Earth may be entering a modern extinction, on par with mass extinctions known from the geologic past. It appears that many long-lived groups are becoming threatened, even ones that have survived for millions of years. This is in contrast to the findings of previous studies of the fossil record, which have shown that older groups were generally less likely to go extinct. The only exception to this pattern is during periods of mass extinction. This project will compare modern and ancient extinctions to better understand extinction risk and threats to current biodiversity. The project also will provide research experience for undergraduate students and contribute to an outreach program for underserved middle school students.Previous studies have compared the magnitude or rate of modern biodiversity loss with those of ancient mass extinctions. To improve our understanding of modern extinctions, this project will compare extinction selectivity with respect to genus age in modern and fossil classes. Extinction risk will be assessed at the generic level using the IUCN Red List for modern classes, and using the Paleobiology Database for fossil classes. Ages of both modern and fossil genera will be determined from the Paleobiology Database. The relationship between extinction risk and genus age will be quantified and provide a basis for comparing modern extinctions with those in the fossil record.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.