Collaborative Research: P2C2--A Model/Proxy Synthesis of Walker Circulation Trends During the Last Millennium

合作研究：P2C2——上个千年沃克流通趋势的模型/代理综合

• 批准号: 1805143
• 负责人: Samantha Stevenson
• 金额: $ 34.14万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1805143&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Model; Proxy

The Pacific Walker circulation alters weather and climate extremes around the world, but its sensitivity to external climate forcings remains unknown. In particular, observational estimates of 20th century trends in the Walker circulation provide conflicting results, with some suggesting a strengthening and others a weakening or no trend, complicating the attribution of these trends to any specific forcing. Paleoclimate records can improve the detection and attribution of trends by providing longer-term context, but their use has been hindered by the lack of multi-proxy synthesis products and climate model simulations covering the last millennium. This project aims to create new quantitative reconstructions of multiple Walker circulation metrics using the recently constructed PAGES Iso2k database, and to evaluate the mechanisms for variability and trends in these metrics using the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) and new simulations with its isotope-enabled complement (iLME). The research seeks to apply these new tools to answer one central question: What are the mechanisms underlying Walker circulation variability and trends from the Last Millennium through the 20th century, and what are the relative roles of external forcings and internal variability?The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) includes strong science and educational aspects. Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects societies and ecosystems; understanding long-term variability of the Walker circulation is thus critical for improving projections of the impacts of 21st century climate change. This scientifically-interdisciplinary research team is composed entirely of early-career researchers, two of whom are female. The project will support a graduate student and postdoctoral researcher. High school students from underrepresented demographics will be recruited for summer internships and mentoring through a program that targets diversity in STEM. Finally, the project will produce multi-proxy synthesis reconstructions of tropical Pacific climate variability and iLME ensemble members, all of which will be made available as resources to the wider scientific and civil communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

太平洋步行者环流改变了世界各地的极端天气和气候，但其对外部气候强迫的敏感性仍然未知。 特别是，观测估计世纪步行者环流的趋势提供了相互矛盾的结果，一些人认为加强和其他人减弱或没有趋势，使这些趋势的任何特定强迫的属性复杂化。古气候记录可以提供长期背景，从而改善趋势的发现和归因，但由于缺乏涵盖上个千年的多代用指标综合产品和气候模型模拟，其使用受到阻碍。 该项目旨在使用最近构建的PAGES Iso 2k数据库创建多个步行者循环指标的新的定量重建，并使用社区地球系统模型最后一个千年Ensemble（LME）和新的模拟同位素启用的补充（iLME）来评估这些指标的变化和趋势的机制。该研究旨在应用这些新的工具来回答一个中心问题：从上个千年到20世纪，步行者环流变异和趋势的机制是什么？外部强迫和内部变异的相对作用是什么？潜在的更广泛影响（B.I.）包括很强的科学和教育方面。热带太平洋的气候变化影响社会和生态系统;因此，了解步行者环流的长期变化对于改进对21世纪世纪气候变化影响的预测至关重要。 这个跨学科的科学研究团队完全由早期职业研究人员组成，其中两名是女性。 该项目将资助一名研究生和博士后研究员。来自代表性不足的高中生将通过一项针对STEM多样性的计划被招募参加暑期实习和指导。最后，该项目将产生热带太平洋气候变率和iLME集合成员的多代理综合重建，所有这些都将作为资源提供给更广泛的科学和民间社区，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

项目成果

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

• DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/accbe1
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Environmental Research: Climate
• 作者: S. Dee;A. Bailey;J. L. Conroy;A. Atwood;S. Stevenson;J. Nusbaumer;D. Noone

The Influence of Volcanic Aerosol Meridional Structure on Monsoon Responses over the Last Millennium

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084377
• 发表时间: 2019-11-06
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Fasullo, John T.;Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;Stevenson, Samantha
• 通讯作者: Stevenson, Samantha

Orbital Forcing Strongly Influences the Poleward Shift of the Spring Himalayan Jet During the Past Millennium

• DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095955
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: U. Thapa;S. Stevenson;M. Midhun

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3
• 发表时间: 2023-11
• 期刊: Nature Geoscience
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: B. Konecky;N. McKay;G. Falster;Samantha L. Stevenson;Matt J. Fischer;A. Atwood;D. Thompson;Matthew D. Jones;Jonathan J. Tyler;K. Delong;B. Martrat;Elizabeth K. Thomas;J. L. Conroy;S. Dee;L. Jonkers;O. Churakova (Sidorova);Zoltán Kern;T. Opel;T. Porter;H. Sayani;G. Skrzypek;Nerilie J. Kerstin Matthieu Olivier Laia Mark A. Emilie P. Abram Braun Carré Cartapanis Comas-Bru Curran Dass-Nerilie-J.-Kerstin-Matthieu-Olivier-Laia-Mark-A.-P.;N. Abram;Kerstin Braun;Matthieu Carré;O. Cartapanis;L. Comas‐Bru;M. Curran;E. Dassié;Michael Deininger;D. Divine;A. Incarbona;Darrell S. Kaufman;N. Kaushal;R. Klaebe;H. Kolus;G. Leduc;S. Managave;P. Mortyn;A. Moy;A. Orsi;J. Partin;H. Roop;M. Sicre;L. von Gunten;Kei Yoshimura

Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope‐Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble

同位素中的火山喷发特征——启用了上个千年的整体

• DOI: 10.1029/2019pa003625
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Stevenson, S.;Otto‐Bliesner, B. L.;Brady, E. C.;Nusbaumer, J.;Tabor, C.;Tomas, R.;Noone, D. C.;Liu, Z.
• 通讯作者: Liu, Z.