Collaborative Research: P2C2--A Model/Proxy Synthesis of Walker Circulation Trends During the Last Millennium

合作研究：P2C2——上个千年沃克流通趋势的模型/代理综合

• 批准号: 1805143
• 负责人: Samantha Stevenson
• 金额: $ 34.14万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1805143&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Model; Proxy

The Pacific Walker circulation alters weather and climate extremes around the world, but its sensitivity to external climate forcings remains unknown. In particular, observational estimates of 20th century trends in the Walker circulation provide conflicting results, with some suggesting a strengthening and others a weakening or no trend, complicating the attribution of these trends to any specific forcing. Paleoclimate records can improve the detection and attribution of trends by providing longer-term context, but their use has been hindered by the lack of multi-proxy synthesis products and climate model simulations covering the last millennium. This project aims to create new quantitative reconstructions of multiple Walker circulation metrics using the recently constructed PAGES Iso2k database, and to evaluate the mechanisms for variability and trends in these metrics using the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) and new simulations with its isotope-enabled complement (iLME). The research seeks to apply these new tools to answer one central question: What are the mechanisms underlying Walker circulation variability and trends from the Last Millennium through the 20th century, and what are the relative roles of external forcings and internal variability?The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) includes strong science and educational aspects. Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects societies and ecosystems; understanding long-term variability of the Walker circulation is thus critical for improving projections of the impacts of 21st century climate change. This scientifically-interdisciplinary research team is composed entirely of early-career researchers, two of whom are female. The project will support a graduate student and postdoctoral researcher. High school students from underrepresented demographics will be recruited for summer internships and mentoring through a program that targets diversity in STEM. Finally, the project will produce multi-proxy synthesis reconstructions of tropical Pacific climate variability and iLME ensemble members, all of which will be made available as resources to the wider scientific and civil communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

太平洋沃克循环会改变世界各地的天气和气候极端，但其对外部气候强迫的敏感性仍然未知。 尤其是，沃克循环中20世纪趋势的观察性估计值提供了矛盾的结果，其中一些表明加强，而另一些则没有趋势或没有趋势，这使这些趋势归因于任何特定的强迫。古气候记录可以通过提供长期环境来改善趋势的检测和归因，但是由于缺乏多核合成产品和涵盖上一个千年的气候模型模拟产品而阻碍了它们的使用。 该项目旨在使用最近构建的页面ISO2K数据库来创建多个助行循环指标的新定量重建，并使用上次千年集合（LME）和带有其同位素可启用的编码（ILME）的新模拟来评估这些指标的可变性和趋势的机制。该研究试图应用这些新工具来回答一个中心问题：从上一千年到20世纪，沃克循环变异性和趋势的基础机制是什么？外部强迫和内部变异性的相对作用是什么？潜在的广泛影响（B.I.）包括强大的科学和教育方面。热带太平洋的气候变异性会影响社会和生态系统；因此，了解沃克循环的长期变异性对于改善21世纪气候变化影响的预测至关重要。 这个科学地间学科的研究团队完全由早期研究人员组成，其中两个是女性。 该项目将支持研究生和博士后研究员。将招募来自代表性不足的人口统计学的高中学生，以招募暑期实习，并通过针对STEM多样性的计划进行指导。最后，该项目将生成热带太平洋气候变异性和ILME合奏成员的多种综合重建，所有这些都将作为资源作为资源提供给更广泛的科学和民用社区。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过基金会的知识优点和广泛的criperia来评估NSF的法定任务，并通过评估值得进行评估。

项目成果

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

• DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/accbe1
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Environmental Research: Climate
• 作者: S. Dee;A. Bailey;J. L. Conroy;A. Atwood;S. Stevenson;J. Nusbaumer;D. Noone

The Influence of Volcanic Aerosol Meridional Structure on Monsoon Responses over the Last Millennium

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084377
• 发表时间: 2019-11-06
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Fasullo, John T.;Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;Stevenson, Samantha
• 通讯作者: Stevenson, Samantha

Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3
• 发表时间: 2023-11
• 期刊: Nature Geoscience
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: B. Konecky;N. McKay;G. Falster;Samantha L. Stevenson;Matt J. Fischer;A. Atwood;D. Thompson;Matthew D. Jones;Jonathan J. Tyler;K. Delong;B. Martrat;Elizabeth K. Thomas;J. L. Conroy;S. Dee;L. Jonkers;O. Churakova (Sidorova);Zoltán Kern;T. Opel;T. Porter;H. Sayani;G. Skrzypek;Nerilie J. Kerstin Matthieu Olivier Laia Mark A. Emilie P. Abram Braun Carré Cartapanis Comas-Bru Curran Dass-Nerilie-J.-Kerstin-Matthieu-Olivier-Laia-Mark-A.-P.;N. Abram;Kerstin Braun;Matthieu Carré;O. Cartapanis;L. Comas‐Bru;M. Curran;E. Dassié;Michael Deininger;D. Divine;A. Incarbona;Darrell S. Kaufman;N. Kaushal;R. Klaebe;H. Kolus;G. Leduc;S. Managave;P. Mortyn;A. Moy;A. Orsi;J. Partin;H. Roop;M. Sicre;L. von Gunten;Kei Yoshimura

Orbital Forcing Strongly Influences the Poleward Shift of the Spring Himalayan Jet During the Past Millennium

• DOI: 10.1029/2021gl095955
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: U. Thapa;S. Stevenson;M. Midhun

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1
• 发表时间: 2022-10-04
• 期刊: NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 42.1
• 作者: Cook, Benjamin I.;Smerdon, Jason E.;Wise, Erika K.
• 通讯作者: Wise, Erika K.