Collaborative Research: Modeling the Vulnerability of Mobile Home Parks to Disaster: A Longitudinal Study of Affordable Housing Loss After Hurricane Harvey

在哈维飓风期间，位于休斯顿地区不同地理、政治和人口组成部分的数百个移动房屋公园被洪水淹没。本项目结合地理空间、定性和定量研究方法，考察了这些公园的破坏情况，并跟踪了这些公园的恢复情况。本研究设计将确定不同公园的不同损害和恢复的原因。这一科研贡献支持了NSF促进科学进步和提高国家福利的使命。在这种情况下，收益将是关于移动房屋公园对自然灾害的脆弱性和减轻风险的方法的新知识。该项目为不同群体的学生研究人员提供培训和指导，其研究成果将纳入研究生教育计划。该研究的方法、建模框架和主要发现将通过移动家庭公园脆弱性评估指南提供给政策制定者和规划从业者。该研究将确定和分析影响灾后移动房屋公园恢复的因素，包括公园关闭、重建、住房损失和评估价值的变化。将建立休斯顿所有经历过洪水的移动住宅公园的地理空间数据库，以分析风险。该报告将包含哈维飓风过后一到两年对公园所有者进行的恢复调查数据，以及公园的空间、监管和社会人口统计信息。对移动住宅公园所有者、居民领导和当地官员的访谈，以及对从研究人口中战略性抽样的15-20个移动住宅公园的规范和规划进行分析。代表促进或阻碍公园恢复的因素的指标将使用定量建模技术在研究人群中进行测试。研究结果将被解释和传播，以便更好地了解移动房屋公园的脆弱性，这是美国经济适用房供应中一个关键但尚未得到充分研究的组成部分。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Hundreds of mobile home parks located in diverse geographic, political, and demographic parts of the Houston area were flooded during Hurricane Harvey. This project examines the damage and tracks the recovery of those parks over time using a combination of geospatial, qualitative, and quantitative research methods. This research design will identify the reasons for differential damage and recovery across parks. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare. In this case, the benefits will be new knowledge about the vulnerability of the mobile home parks to natural hazards and methods to mitigate risks. The project provides training and mentoring for a diverse group of student researchers, and its findings will be incorporated into graduate education programs. The study's methodology, modeling framework, and key findings will be made available to policy-makers and planning practitioners through a mobile home park vulnerability assessment guide. The study will identify and analyze factors that influence post-disaster mobile home park recovery, defined by park closure, rebuilding, housing loss, and change in assessed value. A geospatial database of all Houston mobile home parks that experienced flooding will be created to analyze exposure. It will be populated with data from a recovery survey of park owners at one and two years after Harvey and spatial, regulatory and socio-demographic information on parks. Interviews with mobile home park owners, resident leadership, and local officials, and analysis of codes and plans will be conducted in 15-20 mobile home parks strategically sampled from the study population. Indicators representing the factors that enable or impede park recovery will be tested across the study population using quantitative modeling techniques. Results will be interpreted and disseminated to provide a better understanding of vulnerability in mobile home parks, a critical though understudied component of the U.S. affordable housing supply.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.