Collaborative Research: Modeling the Vulnerability of Mobile Home Parks to Disaster: A Longitudinal Study of Affordable Housing Loss After Hurricane Harvey

合作研究：对移动房屋公园的灾害脆弱性进行建模：飓风“哈维”后经济适用房损失的纵向研究

• 批准号: 1825341
• 负责人: Mary Sullivan
• 金额: $ 36.65万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Denver-Downtown Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1825341&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Modeling; Vulnerability; Mobile

Hundreds of mobile home parks located in diverse geographic, political, and demographic parts of the Houston area were flooded during Hurricane Harvey. This project examines the damage and tracks the recovery of those parks over time using a combination of geospatial, qualitative, and quantitative research methods. This research design will identify the reasons for differential damage and recovery across parks. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare. In this case, the benefits will be new knowledge about the vulnerability of the mobile home parks to natural hazards and methods to mitigate risks. The project provides training and mentoring for a diverse group of student researchers, and its findings will be incorporated into graduate education programs. The study's methodology, modeling framework, and key findings will be made available to policy-makers and planning practitioners through a mobile home park vulnerability assessment guide. The study will identify and analyze factors that influence post-disaster mobile home park recovery, defined by park closure, rebuilding, housing loss, and change in assessed value. A geospatial database of all Houston mobile home parks that experienced flooding will be created to analyze exposure. It will be populated with data from a recovery survey of park owners at one and two years after Harvey and spatial, regulatory and socio-demographic information on parks. Interviews with mobile home park owners, resident leadership, and local officials, and analysis of codes and plans will be conducted in 15-20 mobile home parks strategically sampled from the study population. Indicators representing the factors that enable or impede park recovery will be tested across the study population using quantitative modeling techniques. Results will be interpreted and disseminated to provide a better understanding of vulnerability in mobile home parks, a critical though understudied component of the U.S. affordable housing supply.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

位于休斯顿地区不同地理、政治和人口统计地区的数百个移动房屋公园在飓风哈维期间被洪水淹没。该项目采用地理空间、定性和定量研究相结合的方法，检查这些公园的破坏情况，并跟踪这些公园随着时间的推移而恢复的情况。这项研究设计将确定不同公园之间的差异损害和恢复的原因。因此，这项科学研究贡献支持了NSF促进科学进步和增进我们国家福利的使命。在这种情况下，好处将是关于移动房屋公园对自然灾害的脆弱性和减轻风险的方法的新知识。该项目为不同的学生研究人员群体提供培训和指导，其研究结果将被纳入研究生教育项目。这项研究的方法、建模框架和主要结果将通过流动家庭公园脆弱性评估指南提供给政策制定者和规划从业者。这项研究将确定和分析影响灾后移动房屋公园恢复的因素，这些因素由公园关闭、重建、住房损失和评估价值变化定义。将创建一个地理空间数据库，其中包括所有经历过洪水的休斯顿移动房屋公园，以分析暴露情况。它将填充哈维事件一年和两年后对公园所有者进行的恢复调查数据，以及有关公园的空间、监管和社会人口信息。将从研究人群中战略性地抽样15-20个移动房屋公园，采访移动房屋公园所有者、居民领导和地方官员，并对代码和计划进行分析。代表促进或阻碍公园恢复的因素的指标将使用定量建模技术在研究人群中进行测试。结果将被解释和传播，以更好地了解移动房屋公园的脆弱性，移动房屋公园是美国经济适用房供应中一个关键但研究不足的组成部分。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Mobile Home Parks and Disasters: Understanding Risk to America’s Third Housing Type

移动房屋公园和灾难：了解美国第三种住房类型的风险

• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Natural hazards review
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Rumbach, A.;Sullivan, E.;Makarewicz, C.
• 通讯作者: Makarewicz, C.