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Identifying coral reef 'bright spots' from the global 2015-2017 thermal-stress event

识别 2015-2017 年全球热应激事件中珊瑚礁的“亮点”

基本信息

批准号：
1829393
负责人：
Robert van Woesik
金额：
$ 65.36万
依托单位：
Florida Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-09-01 至 2022-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1829393&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Identifying coral reef bright spots

项目摘要

Coral reefs are one of the world's most diverse ecosystems that provide goods and services, such as fisheries and storm protection, for inhabitants of tropical and subtropical regions. However, the current rapid rate of climate change threatens the existence of coral reefs as they degrade because of thermal-stress events. Consequently, the coverage and coral composition of many coral reefs is changing. Most global models suggest that few if any reef corals will survive beyond the 2.5 degree Celsius temperature rise predicted for the tropical oceans within the next hundred years. Such predictions differ from recent field studies on coral reefs that show pockets where corals do not bleach and die. The disagreement between the global models and field assessments is a consequence of ignoring climate-change refuges; it is critical to locate the climate-change refuges and determine what circumstances are conducive for coral survival. The investigators will examine the global response of coral reefs to thermal stresses over the last two decades, and focus on the 2015-2017 El Nino event, which caused considerable thermal stress and coral bleaching. The investigators ask the question: Where are the coral reef 'bright spots' from the thermal-stress events? 'Bright spots' are considered as places with less than expected bleaching. The team will also assess why some localities are potential 'bright spots'. Identifying coral reef bright spots will help guide future conservation decisions by enabling managers to target reefs with specific characteristics, which could be protected from human encroachment and be designated as potential refuges from coral bleaching as climate change progresses. This project includes training of a post-doctoral fellow and a Ph.D student, and host a coral-bleaching workshop. This study will be of relevance to all persons that live and work near coral reefs. What happens to reef corals has cascading consequences on other reef-associated organisms, and also influences whether reefs can keep up with sea-level rise. The current rapid rate of climate change threatens the existence of coral reefs as they degrade by thermal-stress events. A glimmer of optimism lies in the observation that thermal stresses vary spatially and temporally across the oceans, with the consequence that coral communities in different geographic regions, and under different local conditions, are likely to inherently differ in their capacity to tolerate thermal stress. One of the most transformative aspects of this work is in analyzing the extent to which the bleaching patterns differed from model predictions. This work will capitalize on the recent progress on Bright-Spots Analysis to assess unexpected outcomes. The investigators will take two approaches. First, the project will use a machine-learning algorithm, boosted regression trees to examine the relationships between coral bleaching and the environmental predictor variables of interest. Second, a series of generalized mixed effects models, within a hierarchical Bayesian framework, will be used to identify where geographically 'bright spots' from thermal stress are located and why some coral reefs are more susceptible to thermal stresses than others.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

珊瑚礁是世界上最多样化的生态系统之一，为热带和亚热带地区的居民提供渔业和风暴保护等货物和服务。然而，目前的快速气候变化威胁到珊瑚礁的存在，因为它们因热应力事件而退化。因此，许多珊瑚礁的覆盖范围和珊瑚组成正在发生变化。大多数全球模型表明，在未来一百年内，热带海洋的温度预计将上升2.5摄氏度，很少有珊瑚礁能够存活下来。这种预测与最近对珊瑚礁的实地研究不同，这些研究显示珊瑚不会漂白和死亡。全球模型和实地评估之间的分歧是忽视气候变化避难所的结果;确定气候变化避难所的位置并确定有利于珊瑚生存的环境至关重要。研究人员将研究过去二十年来珊瑚礁对热应力的全球反应，并重点关注2015-2017年厄尔尼诺事件，该事件造成了相当大的热应力和珊瑚漂白。研究人员提出了一个问题：热应力事件中珊瑚礁的“亮点”在哪里？“亮点”被认为是漂白程度低于预期的地方。该小组还将评估为什么一些地方是潜在的“亮点”。确定珊瑚礁亮点将有助于指导未来的保护决策，使管理人员能够针对具有特定特征的珊瑚礁，这些珊瑚礁可以受到保护，免受人类侵蚀，并被指定为随着气候变化的发展而避免珊瑚漂白的潜在避难所。该项目包括培训一名博士后研究员和一名博士生，并主办一个珊瑚漂白讲习班。这项研究将与在珊瑚礁附近生活和工作的所有人有关。珊瑚礁发生的变化会对其他与珊瑚礁相关的生物产生连锁反应，也会影响珊瑚礁是否能跟上海平面上升的步伐。目前气候变化的快速速度威胁着珊瑚礁的生存，因为它们因热应力事件而退化。令人乐观的是，人们注意到，各大洋的热应力在空间和时间上各不相同，因此，不同地理区域和不同当地条件下的珊瑚群落在承受热应力的能力方面可能存在内在差异。这项工作最具变革性的方面之一是分析漂白模式与模型预测的差异程度。这项工作将利用最近的进展，对非预期的结果进行评估。调查人员将采取两种方法。首先，该项目将使用机器学习算法，增强回归树来检查珊瑚漂白与感兴趣的环境预测变量之间的关系。第二，一系列的广义混合效应模型，在一个分层贝叶斯框架内，将被用来确定地理上的“亮点”从热应力的位置，为什么一些珊瑚礁比别人更容易受到热stress.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得的支持，通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。