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Thermal stress and differential recovery of coral reefs

珊瑚礁的热应力和差异恢复

基本信息

批准号：
2048319
负责人：
Robert van Woesik
金额：
$ 70.78万
依托单位：
Florida Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-15 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2048319&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Thermal stress differential recovery coral

项目摘要

Coral reefs are the world’s most diverse marine ecosystem that provide invaluable goods and services for millions of people worldwide. Yet, coral reefs are experiencing thermal-stress events worldwide and their communities are changing. While coarse-grained climate models predict that few coral reefs will survive the 3ºC sea-surface temperature rise in the coming century, field studies show localized pockets of coral survival and recovery, even under high temperature conditions. Quantifying recovery from thermal-stress events is central to making accurate predictions of coral reef trajectories into the near future. This study examines the differential rates of coral recovery following thermal-stress events, globally, and determines the extent to which regional and local conditions influence recovery. This research is taking advantage of the recent progress in spatio-temporal analyses. One of the most transformative aspects of this work is determining where coral recovery rates differ from expectations, and how those differences relate to regional and local conditions. The research is of relevance to all persons that live and work near coral reefs. What happens to reef corals has cascading consequences on other reef-associated organisms and influences whether coral reefs can keep up with sea-level rise. This project is increasing scientific capacity by training a post-doctoral scholar and a PhD student in big-data analysis and making these analysis techniques broadly available. High quality and free online tutorials are supporting standards-driven instruction for high school math, science, and computer teachers in R, a programming language and software environment used for statistical computing and graphics. The project is producing large-scale data and computational resources, which are benefitting diverse users such as students, scientists, resource managers and the broader public. The current rapid rate of climate change threatens coral reefs. Quantifying recovery from thermal-stress events is central to making accurate predictions of coral-reef trajectories into the near future. Coral populations in different geographic regions and under different local conditions vary in their capacity to tolerate or recover from thermal stress. However, how and why coral responses differ remains poorly understood. There is a clear need for accurate predictions of coral trajectories following thermal-stress events and for determining which interacting factors most influence coral recovery. This study is characterizing the relationships between the rates of coral recovery, frequency and intensity of thermal-stress events, geographic location, habitat, and local conditions that slow or enhance coral recovery. Four approaches are being used to analyze coral recovery: (i) a binary approach, (ii) a meta-analysis approach, (iii) an inverse-problem approach, and (iv) a state-space approach. Spatial and temporal differences in rates of coral recovery are being quantified by capitalizing on the latest developments in spatio-temporal analyses within a Bayesian framework. Observed outcomes of coral recovery are being compared with predicted outcomes to identify areas where recoveries are either higher or lower than expected, and to assess context-dependencies of coral recovery in relation to local and regional conditions. The most transformative aspect of the study is the identification of localities with greater than expected recovery rates, which could guide future conservation decisions by enabling managers to target coral reefs with specific characteristics for protection from human disturbances by designating them as potential refuges as the oceans continue to warm.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

珊瑚礁是世界上最多样化的海洋生态系统，为全世界数百万人提供了宝贵的商品和服务。然而，珊瑚礁正在经历全球范围内的热应力事件，它们的群落正在发生变化。虽然粗略的气候模型预测，在下一个世纪，很少有珊瑚礁能在海面温度上升3ºC的情况下生存下来，但实地研究表明，即使在高温条件下，也有局部的珊瑚生存和恢复。量化从热应力事件中恢复是在不久的将来准确预测珊瑚礁轨迹的关键。这项研究探讨了珊瑚恢复的差异率热应力事件后，全球范围内，并确定在何种程度上区域和当地条件影响恢复。本研究利用了时空分析的最新进展。这项工作最具变革性的方面之一是确定珊瑚恢复率与预期的差异，以及这些差异与区域和当地条件的关系。这项研究对在珊瑚礁附近生活和工作的所有人都有意义。珊瑚礁发生的事情对其他与珊瑚礁相关的生物产生了连锁反应，并影响珊瑚礁是否能跟上海平面上升的步伐。该项目通过培训一名博士后学者和一名博士生进行大数据分析，并广泛提供这些分析技术，提高科学能力。高质量和免费的在线教程支持高中数学，科学和计算机教师在R中的标准驱动的教学，R是一种用于统计计算和图形的编程语言和软件环境。该项目正在产生大规模的数据和计算资源，使学生、科学家、资源管理人员和更广泛的公众等各种用户受益。目前快速的气候变化威胁着珊瑚礁。量化从热应力事件中恢复是在不久的将来准确预测珊瑚礁轨迹的关键。不同地理区域和不同当地条件下的珊瑚种群，其耐受热应力或从热应力中恢复的能力各不相同。然而，珊瑚的反应如何以及为什么不同，仍然知之甚少。显然需要准确预测热应力事件后珊瑚的轨迹，并确定哪些相互作用的因素对珊瑚的恢复影响最大。这项研究的特点是珊瑚恢复率，频率和强度的热应力事件，地理位置，栖息地和当地条件，减缓或加强珊瑚恢复之间的关系。正在使用四种方法来分析珊瑚恢复：（i）二元方法，（ii）元分析方法，（iii）反问题方法，（iv）状态空间方法。目前正在利用贝叶斯框架内时空分析的最新发展，对珊瑚恢复率的时空差异进行量化。正在将观察到的珊瑚恢复结果与预测结果进行比较，以确定恢复高于或低于预期的地区，并评估珊瑚恢复与当地和区域条件的相关性。这项研究最具变革性的方面是确定了恢复率高于预期的地区，该奖项可以指导未来的保护决策，使管理人员能够将具有特定特征的珊瑚礁指定为海洋持续变暖的潜在避难所，以保护其免受人类干扰。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的学术价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。