CRISP 2.0 Type 2: Collaborative Research: Integrated Socio-Technical Modeling Framework to Evaluate and Enhance Resiliency in Islanded Communities (ERIC)

CRISP 2.0 类型 2：协作研究：评估和增强岛屿社区复原力的综合社会技术建模框架 (ERIC)

• 批准号: 1832576
• 负责人: Eric Harmsen
• 金额: $ 36.48万
• 依托单位: University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-15 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832576&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CRISP; 2.0; Type; Collaborative; Research

Recent catastrophic events in the coastal tropics and sub-tropics highlight the impact of the interdependencies of critical infrastructure systems and how those interdependencies cause failures of physical assets, leading to adverse impacts on the health and socio-economic wellbeing of the communities in those regions. Islanded communities, defined as remote, self-contained regions, with low or intermittent physical (or cyber) connectivity, are especially vulnerable to natural disasters. A recent example is the extraordinary case of the island of Puerto Rico (PR), in the direct path of Hurricane Maria, and the near total failure of lifeline infrastructures. This event also exemplifies how extreme events compound endemic physical, social and economic vulnerabilities often present in remote or isolated communities. The associated cascading impacts, prior to and after Hurricane Maria, are clear evidence of our limited knowledge and readiness to anticipate risks in these complex engineered, physical and human systems. This reveals the urgent need to develop scientific and social frameworks and methodologies by which islanded communities can assess their existing preparedness to extreme climatic events, and through a multi-stakeholder engagement process and engineering analysis, evaluate and implement alternative measures to enhance the resiliency of such communities. Using PR as the case study, this Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) project will develop a data-driven modeling framework for understanding the complex physical and social vulnerabilities, and interdependencies that can and have resulted in near total failure of infrastructure systems.The research questions that will be addressed include: a) How do socio-economic stability, governance and baseline conditions of infrastructure impact performance and resiliency of critical interdependent infrastructure systems in extreme weather conditions? b) What knowledge and methods are needed to guide strategies for enhancing system resiliency and restoration in islanded communities? c) How can experts and stakeholders be engaged and informed about enhancing resiliency and effective failure mitigation strategies? The plan to achieve these objectives is by first implementing a data-driven process of gathering human narratives as social data and a source of information to recreate the timeline and experience of Hurricane Maria, before, during and after the event. Next, the project team will develop an integrated modeling and simulation framework, based on multi-layer distribution network theory. This framework will include structural-based assessment results in the modeling of infrastructure behavior during and after a disaster. The focus of study will be on the interdependencies of the electrical power, water distribution and communications systems. An objective is to recreate, via simulation, the event using a combination of system network models, geophysical data, and community data, to capture the sequence of the cascading failures and the corresponding societal impact as the event unfolded and during post-event recovery efforts. The project team seeks to arrive at a level of understanding of this system of systems that will lead to informed solutions and recommendations that will minimize adverse impact, disruption, loss of life and suffering, in the face of future extreme events. The research builds on a wealth of expertise in weather and climate processes in the Caribbean, understanding of local critical infrastructure, experience in mining community narrative, and from proven methodologies for rebuilding resilient communities in post-Hurricane Sandy in the New York and New Jersey Metro Area.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

最近在沿海热带和亚热带发生的灾难性事件突出了关键基础设施系统之间相互依存的影响，以及这种相互依存如何导致有形资产出现故障，从而对这些地区社区的健康和社会经济福祉造成不利影响。孤岛社区被定义为偏远、自给自足的地区，具有低或断断续续的物理(或网络)连接，特别容易受到自然灾害的影响。最近的一个例子是位于飓风玛丽亚直接路径上的波多黎各(PR)的特殊情况，生命线基础设施几乎完全崩溃。这一事件还说明了极端事件如何加剧了偏远或与世隔绝的社区经常存在的地方性物质、社会和经济脆弱性。飓风玛丽亚前后相关的连锁影响清楚地表明，我们对这些复杂的工程、物理和人类系统中的风险预测的知识和准备有限。这表明迫切需要制定科学和社会框架和方法，使孤岛社区能够评估其对极端气候事件的现有准备情况，并通过多方利益攸关方参与进程和工程分析，评估和实施提高这些社区复原力的替代措施。使用PR作为案例研究，这个关键的弹性相互依赖的基础设施系统和流程(CRISP)项目将开发一个数据驱动的建模框架，用于了解复杂的物理和社会脆弱性，以及能够并已经导致基础设施系统近乎完全故障的相互依赖关系。将解决的研究问题包括：a)社会经济稳定性、治理和基础设施的基线条件如何影响极端天气条件下关键相互依赖的基础设施系统的性能和弹性？B)需要哪些知识和方法来指导提高孤岛社区系统复原力和恢复能力的战略？C)如何让专家和利益相关者参与并了解增强弹性和有效的故障缓解策略？实现这些目标的计划是，首先实施一个数据驱动的程序，收集人类叙述作为社会数据和信息来源，以重现飓风玛丽亚的时间线和经历，在事件发生之前、期间和之后。接下来，项目组将基于多层配电网络理论开发一个集成的建模和仿真框架。这一框架将在对灾害期间和灾后基础设施行为进行建模时包括基于结构的评估结果。研究的重点将是电力、供水和通信系统之间的相互依存关系。一个目标是通过模拟使用系统网络模型、地球物理数据和社区数据的组合来重新创建事件，以捕捉随着事件的展开和在事件后恢复期间发生的连锁故障的顺序以及相应的社会影响。项目组力求对这一系统达到一定程度的了解，从而得出明智的解决办法和建议，最大限度地减少在未来极端事件中的不利影响、破坏、生命损失和痛苦。这项研究建立在加勒比海地区天气和气候过程的丰富专业知识、对当地关键基础设施的了解、矿业社区叙事方面的经验，以及纽约和新泽西大都市区桑迪飓风过后重建弹性社区的成熟方法的基础上。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

A socio-technical approach for the assessment of critical infrastructure system vulnerability in extreme weather events

评估极端天气事件中关键基础设施系统脆弱性的社会技术方法

• DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01315-7
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Energy
• 影响因子: 56.7
• 作者: Montoya-Rincon, Juan P.;Mejia-Manrique, Said A.;Azad, Shams;Ghandehari, Masoud;Harmsen, Eric W.;Khanbilvardi, Reza;Gonzalez-Cruz, Jorge E.
• 通讯作者: Gonzalez-Cruz, Jorge E.

Water and Energy Balance Model GOES-PRWEB: Development and Validation

• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology8030113
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Hydrology
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: E. Harmsen;J. Mecikalski;Victor J. Reventos;Estefanía Álvarez Pérez;Sopuruchi S. Uwakweh;Christie Adorno García

Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration Equation to Meteorological Variables for Puerto Rico

• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10050101
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Hydrology
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: M. Irizarry-Ortiz;E. Harmsen