Workshop on modeling earthquake source processes: from tectonics to dynamic rupture; October 8-10, 2018, Pasadena, CA

近年来，在通过野外观测、实验室研究和数值模拟了解震源过程方面取得了很大进展。然而，对震源的研究面临着巨大的挑战，大多数观测的偏远性质、相关的空间和时间尺度的广泛范围以及一长串相互作用的物理机制都放大了这一挑战，每一种机制都有可能对震源的行为做出重大贡献，甚至主导其行为。这次研讨会将探讨未来开发预测地震模型的战略，这些战略考虑到关于震源的所有现有知识，并突出我们理解中最关键的差距。这样的模型最终可以使社会超越基于短期不完整的地震数据得出的结论。该项目的更广泛影响是侧重于提高我们对地震及其相关危害的了解，并支持不同的、职业生涯较早的研究人员参与这一活动。拟举办的讲习班将制订未来战略，以开发符合实际情况的震源模型，这些模型包括多个时间尺度：动态破裂、地震间隔期、地震序列、短期构造；多个空间尺度：剪切带/断层核、破坏带和更深的延伸、断层段、断层网络；以及多种物理和化学因素：流体效应、非弹性过程、真实的几何形状/粗糙度、非均质性。讨论的重点将是确定此类建模所需的数值方法和资源以及所需的关键实验室和观测投入方面的发展情况。目标主题将包括：(I)需要哪些新的数值方法来解决非平面界面/真实几何、动力效应和长期变形历史的组合、破裂和流体流动的相互作用以及地震旋回与短期构造的耦合；(Ii)如何通过将新的和现有的结果结合到对岩石行为的全面理论驱动的理解中来约束所需的断层和块体的流变学；(Iii)如何适当地解释现场观测和利用大数据来观察以前无法观察到的；(Iv)在未来10年内有针对性地快速发展的领域；以及(V)将为该领域提供实质性推动的新的社区倡议。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Much progress has been made in recent years in understanding earthquake source processes from field observations, laboratory studies, and numerical modeling. Yet studies of the earthquake source face significant challenges, amplified by the remote nature of most observations, vast ranges of relevant spatial and temporal scales, and a long list of interactive physical mechanisms each with the potential to significantly contribute and even dominate the behavior of the earthquake source. This workshop will explore future strategies for developing predictive earthquake models that consider all of the available knowledge about earthquake sources and highlight the most crucial gaps in our understanding. Such models can eventually move society beyond making conclusions based on short-term incomplete earthquake data. The broader impacts of this project are the focus on improving our understanding of earthquakes and their associated hazards and support for a diverse and early career set of researchers to participate in this activity. The proposed workshop will develop future strategies for developing realistic earthquake source models that couple multiple temporal scales: dynamic rupture, interseismic periods, earthquake sequences, short-term tectonics; multiple spatial scales: shear zone/fault core, damage zone and deeper extensions, fault segments, fault networks; and multiple physical and chemical factors: fluid effects, inelastic processes, realistic geometry/roughness, heterogeneity. The discussion will be directed towards identifying developments in numerical methodologies and resources needed for such modeling as well as key required laboratory and observational inputs. The targeted topics will include (i) which novel numerical methodologies are needed for resolving non-planar interfaces/realistic geometries, combinations of dynamic effects and long deformation histories, interaction of failure and fluid flow, and coupling earthquake cycles with short-term tectonics; (ii) how to constrain the needed rheology of faults and bulk by combining new and existing results into comprehensive theory-driven understanding of rock behavior; (iii) how to properly interpret field observations and harnessing big data to observe the previously unobservable; (iv) targeted areas for rapid progress within the next 10 years; and (v) new community initiatives that would provide a substantial boost to the field.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.