Workshop on modeling earthquake source processes: from tectonics to dynamic rupture; October 8-10, 2018, Pasadena, CA

近年来，从野外观测、实验室研究和数值模拟等方面对震源过程的认识取得了很大进展。然而，地震源的研究面临着重大的挑战，放大了大多数观测的远程性质，相关的空间和时间尺度的巨大范围，以及一长串的相互作用的物理机制，每一个都有可能显着贡献，甚至主导地震源的行为。本次研讨会将探讨未来的战略，以发展预测地震模型，考虑到所有现有的知识，地震源和突出的最关键的差距，我们的理解。这些模型最终可以使社会超越基于短期不完整的地震数据得出结论。该项目的更广泛的影响是重点提高我们对地震及其相关危害的理解，并支持多样化和早期职业的研究人员参与这项活动。拟议的讲习班将制定今后的战略，以开发现实的震源模型，这些模型结合了多个时间尺度：动态破裂、地震间隔期、地震序列、短期构造;多个空间尺度：剪切带/断层核、破坏区和更深的延伸、断层段、断层网络;以及多个物理和化学因素：流体效应、非弹性过程、现实的几何形状/粗糙度、异质性。讨论的方向是确定数值方法的发展和这种建模所需的资源以及关键的实验室和观测投入。目标主题将包括（i）需要哪些新的数值方法来解决非平面界面/现实几何形状、动力效应和长期变形历史的组合、破坏和流体流动的相互作用以及地震周期与短期构造的耦合;（ii）如何通过将新的和现有的结果结合到综合理论中来约束断层和体的所需流变性-推动对岩石行为的理解;（iii）如何正确解释现场观察和利用大数据来观察以前无法观察到的情况;（iv）未来10年内快速进展的目标领域;和（v）这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得支持通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估。

Much progress has been made in recent years in understanding earthquake source processes from field observations, laboratory studies, and numerical modeling. Yet studies of the earthquake source face significant challenges, amplified by the remote nature of most observations, vast ranges of relevant spatial and temporal scales, and a long list of interactive physical mechanisms each with the potential to significantly contribute and even dominate the behavior of the earthquake source. This workshop will explore future strategies for developing predictive earthquake models that consider all of the available knowledge about earthquake sources and highlight the most crucial gaps in our understanding. Such models can eventually move society beyond making conclusions based on short-term incomplete earthquake data. The broader impacts of this project are the focus on improving our understanding of earthquakes and their associated hazards and support for a diverse and early career set of researchers to participate in this activity. The proposed workshop will develop future strategies for developing realistic earthquake source models that couple multiple temporal scales: dynamic rupture, interseismic periods, earthquake sequences, short-term tectonics; multiple spatial scales: shear zone/fault core, damage zone and deeper extensions, fault segments, fault networks; and multiple physical and chemical factors: fluid effects, inelastic processes, realistic geometry/roughness, heterogeneity. The discussion will be directed towards identifying developments in numerical methodologies and resources needed for such modeling as well as key required laboratory and observational inputs. The targeted topics will include (i) which novel numerical methodologies are needed for resolving non-planar interfaces/realistic geometries, combinations of dynamic effects and long deformation histories, interaction of failure and fluid flow, and coupling earthquake cycles with short-term tectonics; (ii) how to constrain the needed rheology of faults and bulk by combining new and existing results into comprehensive theory-driven understanding of rock behavior; (iii) how to properly interpret field observations and harnessing big data to observe the previously unobservable; (iv) targeted areas for rapid progress within the next 10 years; and (v) new community initiatives that would provide a substantial boost to the field.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.