Workshop on modeling earthquake source processes: from tectonics to dynamic rupture; October 8-10, 2018, Pasadena, CA

近年来，从野外观测、实验室研究和数值模拟等方面对震源过程的认识取得了很大进展。然而，对震源的研究面临着巨大的挑战，这些挑战被大多数观测的远程性质、广泛的相关空间和时间尺度以及一长串相互作用的物理机制所放大，每一个机制都有可能对震源的行为做出重大贡献，甚至主导震源的行为。本次研讨会将探讨未来发展预测地震模型的策略，这些模型将考虑到所有关于震源的现有知识，并强调我们理解中最关键的差距。这样的模型最终可以使社会超越根据短期不完整的地震数据得出结论。该项目更广泛的影响是专注于提高我们对地震及其相关危害的理解，并支持多样化的早期职业研究人员参与这项活动。建议的研讨会将制定未来的策略，以开发结合多个时间尺度的现实震源模型：动态破裂，地震间期，地震序列，短期构造；多空间尺度：剪切带/断核、破坏带及深部扩展、断层段、断层网；以及多种物理和化学因素：流体效应、非弹性过程、真实几何/粗糙度、非均匀性。讨论的重点将是确定数值方法的发展和这种建模所需的资源以及所需的关键实验室和观测投入。目标主题将包括(i)需要哪些新的数值方法来解决非平面界面/现实几何，动态效应和长变形历史的组合，破坏和流体流动的相互作用，以及地震周期与短期构造的耦合；（ii）如何通过将新的和现有的结果结合到对岩石行为的全面理论驱动的理解中来约束断层和块体所需的流变性；（iii）如何正确解释现场观察结果，并利用大数据观察以前无法观察到的情况；（iv）在未来10年内迅速取得进展的目标领域；(v)新的社区倡议将为该领域提供实质性的推动。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Much progress has been made in recent years in understanding earthquake source processes from field observations, laboratory studies, and numerical modeling. Yet studies of the earthquake source face significant challenges, amplified by the remote nature of most observations, vast ranges of relevant spatial and temporal scales, and a long list of interactive physical mechanisms each with the potential to significantly contribute and even dominate the behavior of the earthquake source. This workshop will explore future strategies for developing predictive earthquake models that consider all of the available knowledge about earthquake sources and highlight the most crucial gaps in our understanding. Such models can eventually move society beyond making conclusions based on short-term incomplete earthquake data. The broader impacts of this project are the focus on improving our understanding of earthquakes and their associated hazards and support for a diverse and early career set of researchers to participate in this activity. The proposed workshop will develop future strategies for developing realistic earthquake source models that couple multiple temporal scales: dynamic rupture, interseismic periods, earthquake sequences, short-term tectonics; multiple spatial scales: shear zone/fault core, damage zone and deeper extensions, fault segments, fault networks; and multiple physical and chemical factors: fluid effects, inelastic processes, realistic geometry/roughness, heterogeneity. The discussion will be directed towards identifying developments in numerical methodologies and resources needed for such modeling as well as key required laboratory and observational inputs. The targeted topics will include (i) which novel numerical methodologies are needed for resolving non-planar interfaces/realistic geometries, combinations of dynamic effects and long deformation histories, interaction of failure and fluid flow, and coupling earthquake cycles with short-term tectonics; (ii) how to constrain the needed rheology of faults and bulk by combining new and existing results into comprehensive theory-driven understanding of rock behavior; (iii) how to properly interpret field observations and harnessing big data to observe the previously unobservable; (iv) targeted areas for rapid progress within the next 10 years; and (v) new community initiatives that would provide a substantial boost to the field.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.