CAREER: Reducing the projection uncertainty for Arctic sea ice loss

职业：减少北极海冰消失的预测不确定性

• 批准号: 1847398
• 负责人: Alexandra Jahn
• 金额: $ 82万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1847398&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Reducing; projection; uncertainty; Arctic

Arctic summer sea ice cover has been declining rapidly over the past few decades. Scientists estimate that future warming will lead to even greater losses, with implications not just for the Arctic but for the global climate system as a whole. Currently, different climate models exhibit a wide spread in their predictions of sea ice loss. In this CAREER award, the investigator will assess the causes of these discrepancies with the ultimate goal of reducing the uncertainty of Arctic sea ice projections. She will also develop a course based undergraduate research experience (CURE) class in climate science involving 80 students over 4 years at her home institution. CURE classes are effective in increasing student retention and self-efficacy in other disciplines, with particularly positive benefits for diverse students. Class materials will be made available on CUREnet for other faculty interested in implementing a CURE research experience in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Finally, the project will support training for a postdoctoral scientist and graduate student and will further the career of a female, tenure track investigator.This project will evaluate the physical causes of the large spread in Arctic sea ice model projections and mean states between climate models, with the goal of enabling process-based model selection to refine sea ice projections. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models provide the first opportunity for this type of process-based sea ice analysis, due to the new output requested by the Sea-Ice Model Inter-comparison Project (SIMIP) for CMIP6 and spearheaded by the investigator as SIMIP co-chair. This CAREER award will provide insights into the contributions of sea ice dynamics, sea ice thermodynamics, and ocean mixed layer processes to the spread in sea ice predictions. It will also provide an assessment of the ability of models to simulate realistic sea ice internal variability and facilitate the improvement of future climate models by providing information to modeling groups on important processes that can explain model biases.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

过去几十年来，北极夏季海冰覆盖面积一直在迅速下降。科学家们估计，未来的变暖将导致更大的损失，不仅对北极，而且对整个全球气候系统都有影响。目前，不同的气候模式在预测海冰损失方面表现出广泛的差异。在这个CAREER奖项中，研究人员将评估这些差异的原因，最终目标是减少北极海冰预测的不确定性。她还将开发一个基于课程的本科生研究经验（CURE）类气候科学涉及80名学生超过4年在她的家乡机构。CURE课程在提高学生在其他学科的保留率和自我效能方面是有效的，对不同的学生特别有利。课程材料将在CUReNet上提供给有兴趣在大气和海洋科学中实施CURE研究经验的其他教师。最后，该项目将支持对一名博士后科学家和研究生的培训，并将促进一名女性终身制研究员的职业生涯，该项目将评估北极海冰模型预测和气候模型之间平均状态大幅度差异的物理原因，目标是能够进行基于过程的模型选择，以完善海冰预测。耦合模型相互比较项目第6阶段（CMIP 6）模型为这种基于过程的海冰分析提供了第一次机会，这是由于海冰模型相互比较项目（SIMIP）要求为CMIP 6提供新的输出，并由调查员作为SIMIP联合主席带头。这个职业奖将提供对海冰动力学，海冰热力学和海洋混合层过程对海冰预测传播的贡献的见解。该奖项还将对模型模拟真实海冰内部变化的能力进行评估，并通过向模型组提供可以解释模型偏差的重要过程的信息来促进未来气候模型的改进。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Arctic Sea Ice in Two Configurations of the CESM2 During the 20th and 21st Centuries

• DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016133
• 发表时间: 2020-09-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: DeRepentigny, Patricia;Jahn, Alexandra;Smith, Abigail
• 通讯作者: Smith, Abigail

Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations

季节过渡日期可以揭示北极海冰模拟的偏差

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-2977-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: The Cryosphere
• 作者: Smith, Abigail;Jahn, Alexandra;Wang, Muyin
• 通讯作者: Wang, Muyin

Improving model-satellite comparisons of sea ice melt onset with a satellite simulator

使用卫星模拟器改进海冰融化开始的模型卫星比较

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: The Cryosphere
• 作者: Smith, Abigail;Jahn, Alexandra;Burgard, Clara;Notz, Dirk
• 通讯作者: Notz, Dirk

Arctic sea ice melt onset favored by an atmospheric pressure pattern reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic pattern

北极海冰融化的开始受大气压力模式的影响，让人想起北美-欧亚北极模式

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05776-y
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Horvath, Sean;Stroeve, Julienne;Rajagopalan, Balaji;Jahn, Alexandra
• 通讯作者: Jahn, Alexandra

Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100

• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x
• 发表时间: 2021-06-03
• 期刊: COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 7.9
• 作者: Crawford, Alex;Stroeve, Julienne;Jahn, Alexandra
• 通讯作者: Jahn, Alexandra