Collaborative Research: Cross-Validation of Empirical and Physics-based ground motion predictions

合作研究：基于经验和物理的地震动预测的交叉验证

• 批准号: 1850015
• 负责人: Marine Denolle
• 金额: $ 16.78万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-04-15 至 2021-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1850015&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Cross; Validation; Empirical

Many densely populated areas such as Tokyo, Seattle, and Los Angeles are located near active plate boundaries capable of producing large earthquakes. These cities are often built on top of sedimentary basins which trap, focus and amplify earthquake seismic energy. Prediction of strong ground motions is critical in these areas to prevent the loss of life and property in future large events. Here, the principal investigators pioneered a new empirical approach which uses seismic ambient noise, for example generated by ocean waves, to predict large earthquake ground motions. They are also expert in 3D numerical simulations of ground-notion dynamics. The team join effort to cross-validate these approaches in the greater Los Angeles. They use ambient noise and small past-earthquake data to create a suite of large scenario earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.8) on the southern San Andreas fault. The simulations allow evaluating whether the underlying geological structure may channel earthquake waves and thereby strongly amplify the ground motions. This 2-year project will help mitigating seismic hazards in southern California. The developped methodology can be applied to other urban areas located in similar geological context. The project also supports an early career female scientist and provides training to three graduate students.The goal of the project is to characterize the coupling effect between the amplification due to seismic waveguides and that due to source directivity. This effect may enhance shaking intensity in sedimentary basins. The project uses southern California as a natural laboratory. Other large metropolitan areas, such as Tokyo, Mexico City, Seattle, Salt Lake City and Jakarta, are subjected to similar hazards. Here, the team innovates in using cross-validation between two state-of-the-art ground-motion prediction approaches: the ambient-noise Virtual Earthquake Approach and 3D dynamic simulations. This cross-validation allows i) establishing bounds of confidence in the two methods, ii) examining the coupling between path and source effects in enhancing ground motion, and iii) evaluating the extent of nonlinear effects on future ground motions. The novelty of the project is the unique combination of theoretical and observational seismology. In this effort, newly collected data from dense arrays including both broadband and nodal-seismic instruments will be exploited.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

许多人口稠密的地区，如东京、西雅图和洛杉矶，都位于活动板块边界附近，能够产生大地震。这些城市通常建在沉积盆地的顶部，这些盆地捕获、聚焦和放大地震地震能量。在这些地区，对强地面运动的预测至关重要，以防止在未来的大型事件中造成生命和财产损失。在这里，主要研究人员开创了一种新的经验方法，利用地震环境噪声，例如由海浪产生的噪声，来预测大地震地面运动。他们也是地面概念动力学的3D数值模拟专家。该团队共同努力，在大洛杉矶地区交叉验证这些方法。他们利用环境噪声和过去的小地震数据，在圣安德烈亚斯断层南部创造了一系列大地震(6.5级到7.8级)。这些模拟可以评估下伏的地质结构是否会引导地震波，从而强烈放大地面运动。这个为期两年的项目将有助于减轻南加州的地震灾害。该方法也可应用于其他地质环境相似的城市地区。该项目还支持一名职业生涯早期的女科学家，并为三名研究生提供培训。该项目的目标是描述地震波导管放大和震源方向性放大之间的耦合效应。这种效应可能会增强沉积盆地的震动强度。该项目使用南加州作为自然实验室。东京、墨西哥城、西雅图、盐湖城和雅加达等其他大城市也遭遇了类似的灾害。在这里，该团队创新地使用了两种最先进的地面运动预测方法之间的交叉验证：环境噪声虚拟地震方法和3D动态模拟方法。这种交叉验证允许i)建立这两种方法的置信度，ii)检查路径和震源效应在增强地面运动方面的耦合，以及iii)评估对未来地面运动的非线性影响的程度。该项目的新奇之处在于理论地震学和观测地震学的独特结合。在这项工作中，将利用从密集阵列收集的新数据，包括宽带和节点地震仪器。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。