PREEVENTS Track 1: Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards: Bringing together Geoscientists, Computational Mathematicians, and Statisticians to Advance Hazard Forecasting

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Better prediction of natural hazards could save lives and mitigate destruction of property. This conference will address the question of uncertainty in coupled mathematical models of physical systems and the impact of this uncertainty on hazard prediction. It will provide a venue to introduce young geoscientists, computational mathematicians, and statisticians to each other and to senior researchers. It will identify specific problems of interest and new collaborations focused around the challenges of coupled hazard models.Uncertainty analysis in mathematical models of physical systems is still in development. Only recently has the effect of uncertainty been incorporated into hazard predictions. However, most hazards are the consequences of a cascade of effects. For example, rain weakens soil on a fire-scorched hillside, which causes a landslide that can harm people and damage property. The goal of this conference is to better understand i) the physical processes causing the hazard, ii) the mathematical models of these processes and the range of uncertainty in the model equations, and iii) the coupling of events leading to hazards and the associated propagation of uncertainties from one model to the next.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.