PREEVENTS Track 1: Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards: Bringing together Geoscientists, Computational Mathematicians, and Statisticians to Advance Hazard Forecasting

更好地预测自然灾害可以拯救生命，减少财产破坏。这次会议将讨论物理系统的耦合数学模型中的不确定性问题，以及这种不确定性对危险预测的影响。它将提供一个场所，将年轻的地球科学家、计算数学家和统计学家相互介绍给彼此和资深研究人员。它将确定人们感兴趣的具体问题，并围绕耦合危险模型的挑战展开新的合作。物理系统数学模型中的不确定性分析仍在开发中。直到最近，不确定性的影响才被纳入危险预测。然而，大多数危险都是一系列影响的后果。例如，雨水会削弱被大火烧焦的山坡上的土壤，这会导致山体滑坡，造成人员伤亡和财产损失。这次会议的目的是为了更好地了解i)导致危险的物理过程，ii)这些过程的数学模型和模型方程中的不确定性范围，以及iii)导致危险的事件的耦合以及相关的不确定性从一个模型传播到下一个模型。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Better prediction of natural hazards could save lives and mitigate destruction of property. This conference will address the question of uncertainty in coupled mathematical models of physical systems and the impact of this uncertainty on hazard prediction. It will provide a venue to introduce young geoscientists, computational mathematicians, and statisticians to each other and to senior researchers. It will identify specific problems of interest and new collaborations focused around the challenges of coupled hazard models.Uncertainty analysis in mathematical models of physical systems is still in development. Only recently has the effect of uncertainty been incorporated into hazard predictions. However, most hazards are the consequences of a cascade of effects. For example, rain weakens soil on a fire-scorched hillside, which causes a landslide that can harm people and damage property. The goal of this conference is to better understand i) the physical processes causing the hazard, ii) the mathematical models of these processes and the range of uncertainty in the model equations, and iii) the coupling of events leading to hazards and the associated propagation of uncertainties from one model to the next.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.