Doctoral Dissertation Research: Factors Influencing Risk Perception and Movement Decisions in Coastal Louisiana

博士论文研究：路易斯安那州沿海地区风险认知和行动决策的影响因素

• 批准号: 1851571
• 负责人: Shauna BurnSilver
• 金额: $ 2.23万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-02-15 至 2020-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851571&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Factors; Influencing

Short-term environmental disturbances and long-term environmental change have displaced millions worldwide. The US Gulf Coast region is especially vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes, sea level rise, land subsidence, and flooding. Some parishes in Louisiana have lost over 90% of their land, largely due to environmental changes. What socioeconomic and cultural factors influence perceptions of environment risk and migration? This project investigates factors not traditionally associated with the environment, including ties to place, strong social relationships, and counter perceptions of environmental risk, that might keep people in place, despite environmental risk. Migration theory suggests that behavior is largely linked to economic factors, such as income opportunities or life ambitions. This research, which trains a graduate student in methods of rigorous, scientific data collection and analysis, will investigate whether, and to what extent, environmental perceptions impact movement decisions. Improved understanding of movement decisions can inform local and state decision makers, yielding more precise composite descriptions of their constituents and likely behavioral outcomes, enabling better prediction of migration patterns and strategic planning. Environmental perceptions are also of value to the emergency and first-response communities when they confront new environmental dangers. The ability to better communicate environmental risk or danger can ultimately help to save lives.Charlotte Till, under the supervision of Dr. Shauna BurnSilver of Arizona State University, will explore the relationship between risk perceptions and migration decisions. This research will be conducted in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, an ideal setting for studying risk where there are both acute and chronic stressors on movement behavior. Hurricanes pose a severe seasonal threat to this area, but sea level rise and land subsidence represent cumulative risks and a new everyday reality for coastal people. During pilot study work in the area in 2016 the researchers found that relative to younger residents, older residents had less intention to leave despite known risks, and factors such as home, family, or community were important features of the environment. Based on survey and interview methodologies this research will first identify how the environment is perceived, and then investigate the influence of these perceptions on movement decisions. Survey responses will form the baseline data representing local perceptions, and then a subset of respondents will be invited to interviews allowing the investigator to explore movement logic(s) and the significance of identified influence factors for their decision making. Text analysis tools will be used to analyze interview data. Examples of the insights possible through the findings of this work include: how movement decisions are made, what factors result in place attachment outweighing risk, and how environmental factors interact with movement decisions. By actively incorporating individuals who do not move, this project is targeting an understudied but critical group for analyzing human movement patterns. By drawing participants directly from the parish this research may spur greater public engagement with science, contributing toward greater public scientific literacy. This research contributes to development of the migration literature on the role of the environment in movement decisions and factors impacting those decisions. This project will also facilitate improved understanding and engagement among communities, emergency managers, and municipal respresentatives.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

短期的环境干扰和长期的环境变化使全世界数百万人流离失所。美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区尤其容易受到飓风、海平面上升、地面沉降和洪水的影响。路易斯安那州的一些教区失去了90%以上的土地，主要是由于环境变化。哪些社会经济和文化因素影响对环境风险和移民的看法？该项目调查了传统上与环境无关的因素，包括与地方的联系、牢固的社会关系和对环境风险的反认知，这些因素可能会使人们在环境风险的情况下留在原地。移民理论认为，移民行为在很大程度上与经济因素有关，比如收入机会或生活抱负。这项研究将对一名研究生进行严谨、科学的数据收集和分析方法的培训，并将调查环境感知是否以及在多大程度上影响运动决策。提高对迁移决策的理解可以为地方和国家决策者提供信息，对其组成部分和可能的行为结果进行更精确的综合描述，从而更好地预测迁移模式和战略规划。在面临新的环境危险时，环境观念对应急和第一反应社区也很有价值。更好地沟通环境风险或危险的能力最终有助于挽救生命。夏洛特·蒂尔在亚利桑那州立大学肖娜·伯恩斯·西尔弗博士的指导下，将探索风险认知与移民决策之间的关系。本研究将在路易斯安那州的Terrebonne教区进行，这是一个研究风险的理想场所，在那里运动行为中既有急性压力源，也有慢性压力源。飓风对这一地区构成了严重的季节性威胁，但海平面上升和地面沉降对沿海地区的人们来说是一种累积的风险和新的日常现实。在2016年该地区的试点研究工作中，研究人员发现，相对于年轻居民，尽管存在已知的风险，但老年居民离开的意愿较低，而家庭、家庭或社区等因素是环境的重要特征。基于调查和访谈方法，本研究将首先确定环境是如何感知的，然后调查这些感知对运动决策的影响。调查回复将形成代表当地看法的基线数据，然后将邀请一部分受访者进行访谈，使研究者能够探索运动逻辑和确定的影响因素对其决策的重要性。文本分析工具将用于分析访谈数据。通过这项工作的发现可能产生的见解的例子包括：如何做出移动决策，什么因素导致位置依恋超过风险，以及环境因素如何与移动决策相互作用。通过积极地将不动的个体纳入其中，该项目针对的是一个未被充分研究但重要的群体，用于分析人类的运动模式。通过直接从教区吸引参与者，这项研究可能会促进公众对科学的更多参与，有助于提高公众的科学素养。本研究有助于发展迁移文献中环境在迁移决策中的作用以及影响这些决策的因素。该项目还将促进增进社区、应急管理人员和市政代表之间的了解和参与。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。