Doctoral Dissertation Research: Factors Influencing Risk Perception and Movement Decisions in Coastal Louisiana

博士论文研究：路易斯安那州沿海地区风险认知和行动决策的影响因素

• 批准号: 1851571
• 负责人: Shauna BurnSilver
• 金额: $ 2.23万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-02-15 至 2020-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851571&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Factors; Influencing

Short-term environmental disturbances and long-term environmental change have displaced millions worldwide. The US Gulf Coast region is especially vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes, sea level rise, land subsidence, and flooding. Some parishes in Louisiana have lost over 90% of their land, largely due to environmental changes. What socioeconomic and cultural factors influence perceptions of environment risk and migration? This project investigates factors not traditionally associated with the environment, including ties to place, strong social relationships, and counter perceptions of environmental risk, that might keep people in place, despite environmental risk. Migration theory suggests that behavior is largely linked to economic factors, such as income opportunities or life ambitions. This research, which trains a graduate student in methods of rigorous, scientific data collection and analysis, will investigate whether, and to what extent, environmental perceptions impact movement decisions. Improved understanding of movement decisions can inform local and state decision makers, yielding more precise composite descriptions of their constituents and likely behavioral outcomes, enabling better prediction of migration patterns and strategic planning. Environmental perceptions are also of value to the emergency and first-response communities when they confront new environmental dangers. The ability to better communicate environmental risk or danger can ultimately help to save lives.Charlotte Till, under the supervision of Dr. Shauna BurnSilver of Arizona State University, will explore the relationship between risk perceptions and migration decisions. This research will be conducted in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, an ideal setting for studying risk where there are both acute and chronic stressors on movement behavior. Hurricanes pose a severe seasonal threat to this area, but sea level rise and land subsidence represent cumulative risks and a new everyday reality for coastal people. During pilot study work in the area in 2016 the researchers found that relative to younger residents, older residents had less intention to leave despite known risks, and factors such as home, family, or community were important features of the environment. Based on survey and interview methodologies this research will first identify how the environment is perceived, and then investigate the influence of these perceptions on movement decisions. Survey responses will form the baseline data representing local perceptions, and then a subset of respondents will be invited to interviews allowing the investigator to explore movement logic(s) and the significance of identified influence factors for their decision making. Text analysis tools will be used to analyze interview data. Examples of the insights possible through the findings of this work include: how movement decisions are made, what factors result in place attachment outweighing risk, and how environmental factors interact with movement decisions. By actively incorporating individuals who do not move, this project is targeting an understudied but critical group for analyzing human movement patterns. By drawing participants directly from the parish this research may spur greater public engagement with science, contributing toward greater public scientific literacy. This research contributes to development of the migration literature on the role of the environment in movement decisions and factors impacting those decisions. This project will also facilitate improved understanding and engagement among communities, emergency managers, and municipal respresentatives.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

短期环境干扰和长期环境变化已导致全世界数百万人流离失所。美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区特别容易受到飓风、海平面上升、地面沉降和洪水的影响。路易斯安那州的一些教区失去了 90% 以上的土地，这主要是由于环境变化。哪些社会经济和文化因素影响对环境风险和移民的看法？该项目调查传统上与环境无关的因素，包括与地方的联系、牢固的社会关系以及对环境风险的相反看法，这些因素可能使人们在面临环境风险的情况下留在原地。移民理论表明，行为在很大程度上与经济因素有关，例如收入机会或生活抱负。这项研究训练研究生严格、科学的数据收集和分析方法，将调查环境感知是否以及在多大程度上影响运动决策。提高对迁徙决策的理解可以为地方和州决策者提供信息，对其选民和可能的行为结果产生更精确的综合描述，从而更好地预测迁徙模式和战略规划。当紧急情况和第一反应社区面临新的环境危险时，环境认知也很有价值。更好地传达环境风险或危险的能力最终可以帮助拯救生命。夏洛特·蒂尔（Charlotte Till）在亚利桑那州立大学肖娜·伯恩·西尔弗（Shauna Burn Silver）博士的指导下，将探讨风险认知与移民决策之间的关系。这项研究将在路易斯安那州的特雷博恩教区进行，这里是研究运动行为中同时存在急性和慢性压力源的风险的理想环境。飓风对该地区构成了严重的季节性威胁，但海平面上升和地面沉降代表着累积的风险，也是沿海人民面临的新的日常生活现实。在 2016 年该地区的试点研究工作中，研究人员发现，相对于年轻居民，尽管存在已知的风险，但老年居民却不太愿意离开，而且住宅、家庭或社区等因素是环境的重要特征。基于调查和访谈方法，本研究将首先确定人们如何感知环境，然后调查这些感知对运动决策的影响。调查回复将形成代表当地看法的基线数据，然后将邀请一部分受访者参加访谈，使调查人员能够探索运动逻辑以及已确定的影响因素对其决策的重要性。将使用文本分析工具来分析访谈数据。通过这项工作的发现可能获得的见解的例子包括：如何做出运动决策、哪些因素导致地方依恋超过风险，以及环境因素如何与运动决策相互作用。通过积极吸收不运动的个体，该项目的目标是一个未被充分研究但对分析人类运动模式至关重要的群体。通过直接从教区吸引参与者，这项研究可能会刺激公众更多地参与科学，有助于提高公众的科学素养。这项研究有助于发展关于环境在迁移决策中的作用以及影响这些决策的因素的迁移文献。该项目还将促进社区、应急管理人员和市政代表之间的理解和参与。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。