Doctoral Dissertation Research: Factors Influencing Risk Perception and Movement Decisions in Coastal Louisiana

博士论文研究：路易斯安那州沿海地区风险认知和行动决策的影响因素

• 批准号: 1851571
• 负责人: Shauna BurnSilver
• 金额: $ 2.23万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-02-15 至 2020-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851571&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Factors; Influencing

Short-term environmental disturbances and long-term environmental change have displaced millions worldwide. The US Gulf Coast region is especially vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes, sea level rise, land subsidence, and flooding. Some parishes in Louisiana have lost over 90% of their land, largely due to environmental changes. What socioeconomic and cultural factors influence perceptions of environment risk and migration? This project investigates factors not traditionally associated with the environment, including ties to place, strong social relationships, and counter perceptions of environmental risk, that might keep people in place, despite environmental risk. Migration theory suggests that behavior is largely linked to economic factors, such as income opportunities or life ambitions. This research, which trains a graduate student in methods of rigorous, scientific data collection and analysis, will investigate whether, and to what extent, environmental perceptions impact movement decisions. Improved understanding of movement decisions can inform local and state decision makers, yielding more precise composite descriptions of their constituents and likely behavioral outcomes, enabling better prediction of migration patterns and strategic planning. Environmental perceptions are also of value to the emergency and first-response communities when they confront new environmental dangers. The ability to better communicate environmental risk or danger can ultimately help to save lives.Charlotte Till, under the supervision of Dr. Shauna BurnSilver of Arizona State University, will explore the relationship between risk perceptions and migration decisions. This research will be conducted in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, an ideal setting for studying risk where there are both acute and chronic stressors on movement behavior. Hurricanes pose a severe seasonal threat to this area, but sea level rise and land subsidence represent cumulative risks and a new everyday reality for coastal people. During pilot study work in the area in 2016 the researchers found that relative to younger residents, older residents had less intention to leave despite known risks, and factors such as home, family, or community were important features of the environment. Based on survey and interview methodologies this research will first identify how the environment is perceived, and then investigate the influence of these perceptions on movement decisions. Survey responses will form the baseline data representing local perceptions, and then a subset of respondents will be invited to interviews allowing the investigator to explore movement logic(s) and the significance of identified influence factors for their decision making. Text analysis tools will be used to analyze interview data. Examples of the insights possible through the findings of this work include: how movement decisions are made, what factors result in place attachment outweighing risk, and how environmental factors interact with movement decisions. By actively incorporating individuals who do not move, this project is targeting an understudied but critical group for analyzing human movement patterns. By drawing participants directly from the parish this research may spur greater public engagement with science, contributing toward greater public scientific literacy. This research contributes to development of the migration literature on the role of the environment in movement decisions and factors impacting those decisions. This project will also facilitate improved understanding and engagement among communities, emergency managers, and municipal respresentatives.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

短期的环境干扰和长期环境变化已在全球范围内流离失所。美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区特别容易受到飓风的影响，海平面上升，土地沉降和洪水的影响。路易斯安那州的一些教区损失了超过90％的土地，这主要是由于环境变化。哪些社会经济和文化因素会影响对环境风险和移民的看法？该项目调查了传统上与环境不相关的因素，包括与环境联系，牢固的社会关系以及对环境风险的反感，尽管环境风险仍可能使人们保持适当的状态。移民理论表明，行为在很大程度上与经济因素有关，例如收入机会或生活野心。这项研究对一名研究生进行了严格，科学数据收集和分析方法的培训，将研究环境看法是否会影响运动决策。对移动决策的了解的提高可以为地方和州的决策者提供信息，从而对其成分和可能的行为结果产生更精确的综合描述，从而更好地预测移民模式和战略计划。当环境观念面临新的环境危险时，对紧急情况和第一回应社区也具有价值。更好地传达环境风险或危险的能力最终可以帮助挽救生命。这项研究将在路易斯安那州的特雷邦教区进行，这是研究风险的理想场所，在急性和慢性运动行为上都有压力。飓风对该地区构成了严重的季节性威胁，但海平面上升和土地沉降代表了沿海人民的累积风险和新的日常现实。在2016年该地区的试点研究工作中，研究人员发现，相对于年轻居民，尽管有已知风险，但老年居民的意图较少，而家庭，家庭或社区等因素则是环境的重要特征。根据调查和访谈方法，这项研究将首先确定如何感知环境，然后研究这些看法对运动决策的影响。调查回答将构成代表当地看法的基线数据，然后将邀请一部分受访者参加访谈，使调查人员能够探索运动逻辑以及确定的影响因素对其决策的重要性。文本分析工具将用于分析访谈数据。通过这项工作的发现，可能的见解示例包括：如何做出运动决策，导致什么因素超过风险以及环境因素如何与运动决策相互作用。通过积极地纳入不动的个人，该项目是针对一个研究研究的但至关重要的群体，用于分析人类运动模式。通过直接从教区吸引参与者，这项研究可能会促进与科学的公众参与，从而有助于更大的公共科学素养。这项研究有助于发展有关环境在运动决策中的作用以及影响这些决策的因素的发展。该项目还将促进社区，应急管理人员和市政人员之间的理解和参与。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的评估评估的评估来支持的。