Doctoral Dissertation Research: Factors Influencing Risk Perception and Movement Decisions in Coastal Louisiana

博士论文研究：路易斯安那州沿海地区风险认知和行动决策的影响因素

• 批准号: 1851571
• 负责人: Shauna BurnSilver
• 金额: $ 2.23万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-02-15 至 2020-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851571&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Factors; Influencing

Short-term environmental disturbances and long-term environmental change have displaced millions worldwide. The US Gulf Coast region is especially vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes, sea level rise, land subsidence, and flooding. Some parishes in Louisiana have lost over 90% of their land, largely due to environmental changes. What socioeconomic and cultural factors influence perceptions of environment risk and migration? This project investigates factors not traditionally associated with the environment, including ties to place, strong social relationships, and counter perceptions of environmental risk, that might keep people in place, despite environmental risk. Migration theory suggests that behavior is largely linked to economic factors, such as income opportunities or life ambitions. This research, which trains a graduate student in methods of rigorous, scientific data collection and analysis, will investigate whether, and to what extent, environmental perceptions impact movement decisions. Improved understanding of movement decisions can inform local and state decision makers, yielding more precise composite descriptions of their constituents and likely behavioral outcomes, enabling better prediction of migration patterns and strategic planning. Environmental perceptions are also of value to the emergency and first-response communities when they confront new environmental dangers. The ability to better communicate environmental risk or danger can ultimately help to save lives.Charlotte Till, under the supervision of Dr. Shauna BurnSilver of Arizona State University, will explore the relationship between risk perceptions and migration decisions. This research will be conducted in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, an ideal setting for studying risk where there are both acute and chronic stressors on movement behavior. Hurricanes pose a severe seasonal threat to this area, but sea level rise and land subsidence represent cumulative risks and a new everyday reality for coastal people. During pilot study work in the area in 2016 the researchers found that relative to younger residents, older residents had less intention to leave despite known risks, and factors such as home, family, or community were important features of the environment. Based on survey and interview methodologies this research will first identify how the environment is perceived, and then investigate the influence of these perceptions on movement decisions. Survey responses will form the baseline data representing local perceptions, and then a subset of respondents will be invited to interviews allowing the investigator to explore movement logic(s) and the significance of identified influence factors for their decision making. Text analysis tools will be used to analyze interview data. Examples of the insights possible through the findings of this work include: how movement decisions are made, what factors result in place attachment outweighing risk, and how environmental factors interact with movement decisions. By actively incorporating individuals who do not move, this project is targeting an understudied but critical group for analyzing human movement patterns. By drawing participants directly from the parish this research may spur greater public engagement with science, contributing toward greater public scientific literacy. This research contributes to development of the migration literature on the role of the environment in movement decisions and factors impacting those decisions. This project will also facilitate improved understanding and engagement among communities, emergency managers, and municipal respresentatives.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

短期的环境干扰和长期的环境变化使全世界数百万人流离失所。美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区特别容易受到飓风、海平面上升、地面沉降和洪水的影响。路易斯安那州的一些教区已经失去了90%以上的土地，主要是由于环境变化。哪些社会经济和文化因素影响对环境风险和移徙的看法？该项目调查了传统上与环境无关的因素，包括与地方的联系，强大的社会关系，以及对环境风险的反认知，这些因素可能使人们在环境风险下保持原位。移民理论表明，行为在很大程度上与经济因素有关，如收入机会或生活抱负。这项研究，训练研究生在严格的，科学的数据收集和分析的方法，将调查是否，以及在何种程度上，环境感知影响运动的决定。更好地理解迁移决策可以为地方和州决策者提供信息，从而更准确地描述其组成部分和可能的行为结果，从而更好地预测迁移模式和战略规划。在紧急情况和第一反应社区面临新的环境危险时，环境观念也很有价值。更好地传达环境风险或危险的能力最终可以帮助拯救生命。夏洛特蒂尔在亚利桑那州立大学的肖纳伯恩西尔弗博士的监督下，将探索风险感知和移民决策之间的关系。这项研究将在路易斯安那州的特雷博讷教区进行，这是一个研究运动行为存在急性和慢性应激源的风险的理想环境。飓风对这一地区构成严重的季节性威胁，但海平面上升和地面沉降是累积的风险，也是沿海人民新的日常现实。在2016年该地区的试点研究工作中，研究人员发现，相对于年轻居民，尽管存在已知的风险，但老年居民不太愿意离开，并且家庭，家庭或社区等因素是环境的重要特征。本研究以问卷调查与访谈法为基础，先探讨环境知觉，再探讨环境知觉对行动决策之影响。调查答复将形成代表当地看法的基线数据，然后将邀请一部分受访者进行访谈，使调查人员能够探索运动逻辑以及确定的影响因素对其决策的重要性。文本分析工具将用于分析访谈数据。通过这项工作的发现可能的见解的例子包括：运动决策是如何作出的，什么因素导致地方附件超过风险，以及环境因素如何与运动决策相互作用。通过积极整合不动的个体，该项目针对的是一个研究不足但对分析人类运动模式至关重要的群体。通过直接从教区吸引参与者，这项研究可能会刺激公众更多地参与科学，有助于提高公众的科学素养。这项研究有助于发展的移徙文献的作用，环境中的移动决定和影响这些决定的因素。该项目还将促进社区，应急管理人员和市政代表之间的理解和参与。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。