Dynamics of Occupation Choice, Skill Investment and Output Pricing with Multidimensional Skill

摘要在美国和其他地方，贸易和技术对工人的影响已经成为一个主要的政策问题。随着工作性质的演变和贸易模式的变化，技术将继续对劳动力市场产生影响，了解现有劳动力将如何通过投资获取技能来适应这些变化是很重要的。这项研究的主要目的是促进我们对这些影响的理解，以帮助指导相关的政策决策。该项目将研究技术和贸易模式的快速发展如何影响不同技能在劳动力市场中的重要性，以及工人如何通过学习新技能或更换工作来适应这些变化。特别是，该项目将研究贸易和技术冲击以及劳动力市场的反应如何影响收入分配，重点是不同年龄、教育水平和职业的工人之间的差异。该项目开发了一个当技能和工作都是不同的但没有等级顺序的时候，技能投资和工作选择的框架。本项目重点研究了两种模型。第一个模型将工资结构视为工人决策的外生性因素。工人们反复选择工作，并根据他们的奖励方式在哪些技能上投资多少。利用这一模型，这项研究从理论和经验两个方面考察了工人的决策如何对意外的技术和贸易冲击做出反应。第二个模型是在此背景下的技能投资的一般均衡模型。基于这一模型的研究考察了工人在事前同质时的均衡性质，并研究了当他们做出技能投资决策后，当这些工人面临冲击时会发生什么。这项研究考察了连锁反应，即使对没有受到直接影响的员工来说，这些连锁反应也会改变结果。这项研究还权衡了对工人造成不利影响的直接损失，以及产出价格下降可能带来的间接好处。最后，该项目将扩展该模式，允许工人在他们的教育水平上是不同的。这项研究将有助于探索教育和技能投资之间的联系，这是解释教育和工作之间关系的关键环节。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractThe effects of trade and technology on workers in the United States and elsewhere have become a central policy concern. As technology will continue to have an impact on the labor market as the nature of work evolves and trade patterns change, it is important to understand how the existing workforce will adapt to these changes through investment in acquiring skills. The primary goal of this research is to advance our understanding of these effects in order to help guide relevant policy decisions. The project will examine how rapid developments in technology and trade patterns can affect the importance of different skills in the labor market, and how workers adapt to these changes, for instance by learning new skills or changing jobs. In particular, the project will examine how trade and technology shocks and the response in the labor market affect the distribution of income, with focus on differences between workers of different ages, educational levels and occupations.The project develops a framework of skill investment and job choice when both skills and jobs are heterogeneous but are not hierarchically ordered. This project focuses on two kinds of models. The first model treats the wage structure as exogenous to the worker's decisions. Workers repeatedly choose jobs, and how much to invest in which skills given how they are rewarded. Using this model, the research examines both theoretically and empirically how worker decisions respond to unanticipated technology and trade shocks. The second one is a general equilibrium model of skill investment in this setting. The research based on this model investigates the properties of the equilibrium when workers are ex ante homogeneous and studies what happens when, after they have made their skill investment decisions, these workers face a shock. This research examines ripple effects that alter outcomes even for workers not directly affected. The research also weighs the direct losses to a worker adversely affected by a shock that favored some workers and hurt others against the possible indirect benefit from a decline in the price of output. Finally, the project will extend the model to allow workers to be heterogeneous in their level of education. This research will be useful in exploring the links between education and skill investment, which is a crucial link in explaining the relation between education and jobs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.