EAGER: Influence of Coronal Magnetic Structure and Environment of Solar Filaments on the Early Deflection of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs): New Observations and Modeling

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This one-year EAGER project targets a topic of paramount importance for Space Weather and improved understanding of solar-terrestrial relations, namely the early stages of filament eruptions on the Sun and the formation and propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the low solar corona. The project comprises an exploratory work which, if proven successful, could lead to fundamental improvement in our scientific understanding of the physical systems from where CMEs originate and develop, by applying novel analyses to existing observations and applying simple (compared to full coronal 3-D MHD simulations) modeling techniques. Furthermore, the project could lead to the development of a new type of advanced numerical algorithms that would allow a much better classification of solar prominences and filaments -- the progenitors of CMEs -- in terms of their field structure and early evolution in the solar atmosphere, deflection in the solar corona, and final geo-effectiveness or planetary effectiveness. The new approach advocated in this project will also enhance space weather forecasting capabilities by reducing the uncertainty in the initial conditions for CME formation, eruption and propagation in the low corona that will prove advantageous to all existing and developing Space Weather modeling frameworks.This one-year EAGER project builds upon an extensive observational as well as analytical and numerical modeling carried out by the project team to provide a guide for the Space Weather community forecasters. The project will result in initial conditions that are crucial for the development of intermediate models, which can be used as quick ways of predicting the field of CMEs and its early deflection. The project team is devoted to public outreach and the expansion of knowledge of space weather via public seminars and talks at high-school and secondary-school level, providing leadership examples and motivating women and minorities to undertake studies in STEM education fields. The PI will mentor a graduate student on CMEs and Solar Eruptions at UCLA. The research and EPO agenda of this EAGER project supports the Strategic Goals of the AGS Division in discovery, learning, diversity, and interdisciplinary research.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.