AGU Chapman Conference on Understanding Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

大气二氧化碳浓度继续增加，主要是由于燃烧化石燃料和土地利用变化（例如，将森林变为农田）。然而，考虑到人类排放，大气中二氧化碳的增长速度只有预期的一半左右。这种差异主要是由于陆地生态系统和海洋从大气中去除碳。这种碳-气候反馈受到陆地和海洋能从大气中吸收多少二氧化碳的限制。这一数量反过来又受到地球气候变化及其可变性的影响，这就提出了关于碳去除的长期潜力可能如何变化的问题。未来碳-气候反馈的方向和幅度以及对未来大气二氧化碳浓度的预估仍存在很大的不确定性。该项目通过汇集来自许多学科的科学家来整合传统上独立开发的知识，朝着填补这一知识空白迈出了一步。特别是，该项目将面向来自代表性不足群体的早期职业科学家，让他们参与其中，并为解决这一问题带来新的视角。这次会议的成果对决策者和气候适应计划的制定也至关重要。在圣地亚哥举行的AGU查普曼会议题为“理解碳-气候反馈”，将通过解决以下关键问题，有助于推进该领域的发展：面对自然的年际、年代际和百年生态系统变化，如何检测碳-气候反馈过程？控制碳-气候反馈对大气CO2库存量总影响的关键生态系统过程、尺度和区域是什么？全球碳-气候反馈在多大程度上由敏感的生态区域主导？如何利用生态系统过程对碳-气候反馈的控制的当代知识来改进对气候系统的预测？与会者将讨论并确定生态系统科学发展的优先事项，以减少气候预测的不确定性，并支持改进对快速变化的地球的响应。本次会议将为生态系统研究的新研究方向提供关键的投入和指导，这将为气候科学带来直接利益，并为全球社会带来更广泛的利益。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase, mainly from burning of fossil fuels and land use change (e.g., conversion of forest to farmland). Atmospheric CO2 is, however, only growing at about half the rate expected given human emissions. This difference is largely due to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere by terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans. This carbon-climate feedback is limited by how much CO2 the land and oceans can absorb from the atmosphere. This amount is, in turn, influenced by changes in the Earth's climate and its variability, raising questions about how the long-term potential for carbon removal may change. Large uncertainties remain in the direction and magnitude of future carbon-climate feedbacks and in projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentration. This project takes a step towards filling this gap in knowledge by bringing together scientists from many disciplines to integrate knowledge that has traditionally been developed independently. In particular, this project will target early career scientists from underrepresented groups to participate and bring new perspectives to bear on this problem. The products of this conference will also be essential for policy makers and the development of climate adaptation plans.The AGU Chapman conference in San Diego titled Understanding Carbon-Climate Feedbacks, will be instrumental in advancing the field by addressing the following key questions: 1. How can carbon-climate feedback processes be detected in the face of natural interannual, decadal, and centennial ecosystem variability?2. What are the critical ecosystem processes, scales, and regions that control the total impact of carbon-climate feedbacks on the atmospheric CO2 inventory?3. To what degree are global carbon-climate feedbacks dominated by sensitive ecoregions?4. How can the contemporary knowledge of ecosystem process controls on carbon-climate feedbacks be used to improve predictions of climate systems?The participants in the meeting will discuss and establish the top priorities for ecosystem science development to reduce the uncertainties of climate predictions and support an improved response to a rapidly changing planet. This conference will provide key input and guidance for new research directions within ecosystem studies that will yield direct benefits to climate science, as well as broader benefits to global society.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.